Talk Elections

Leads Sullivan 42/37, Treadwell 41/34. Begich at 45/44 disapprove, all Pubs underwater. Begich crushing w/indies + no Pub consolidation. Sullivan leads the primary 40/26/12. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_513.pdf)

PPP was very bad in Alaska in 2010. Still it's better than nothing I guess.

Translation: Begich in dead heat with, or slightly behind, GOP challengers

AK polling being what it is, we might as well wait till November.

Nope,  as PPP is the gold standard of polling.

Regardless, its almost impossible to accurately poll Alaska, Montana or the Dakotas.

Yeah, the Sullivan/Begich is practically the same from their February poll, but if Kile is really taking 5-6%, that's good news for Begich. That party is basically a libertarian-like party and will come out big to get marijuana passed and prevent the business regulations on bay mining meaning Sullivan is going to struggle even more to get Independent support and could struggle with Tea Party support if Miller runs in the general, to. At this point, I would say this leans Democratic and everything is just being set in stone for Begich to slide by fairly easily. The DSCC throwing millions into this race is just the topping on the cake.

And lol at Miller's 17% favorable rating.

Just like how you had to unskew the polls to realize that Mitt Romney was really leading in all the key states?

New Poll: Alaska Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-05-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2220140511108)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 37%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_513.pdf)

I really do think Begich only won due to how much crap Stevens was going through at the time. Look how close it was even then! Considering Alaska polling is notoriously pooey, I think this isn't one to lose hope in.

Something interesting: Lisa Murkowski has a 44/41 approval rating (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_514.pdf) but that is almost entirely from Democratic support.


She's at 34/56 among Republicans, 42/49 among those who are "somewhat conservative", and a staggering 19/64 among those who are "very conservative." However she is at 46/31 with "very liberal", 52/33 among moderate liberals, and 56/26 among moderates.

She's probably going to have another primary challenge in 2016, from somewhat more competent than Joe Miller. I wouldn't be surprised if she went full Lieberman, or switched parties all together.

alaska is really big on seniority.

Translation: Begich has a small lead over Sullivan.

You have to unskew the polls that oversample blacks, like the November 6, 2012 ones.

Well, I think that is likely she becomes an indy. An indy cocusing with the rep party obviously.

Like a said three months ago, her weakness amongst Republicans will attract a more solid candidate to run against her in the primary that will likewise be difficult to split the Republican leaning vote against in the general, maybe even Parnell himself. It won't be Treadwell, unless there was a falling out, last I heard he considered himself a Murkowski protege. He is also hadly any definition of solid anymore.

No; I had to unskew PPP's biased polls to realize that Obama wasn't leading by anywhere near as much as they showed.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114769/ppp-methodology-results-arent-defense

That article was showing flaws in PPP's methodology (namely, that the sample demographics changed to avoid extreme results), not a systematic bias in favor of Democrats as you allege. In fact, the exclusion of cell phones probably makes them prone to underestimating Democratic support if anything, as 2012 demonstrated.

I don't know what's worse, pulling a Dean Chambers or taking an Alaska poll seriously.

They were the best pollster in 2012 and had the most accurate poll results compared to the actual results. I'm pretty sure you shouldn't count them out.