Talk Elections

Slipping a bit from 40 to 36 with Dillard surging to 23 and Brady at 18.  (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/clout/chi-rauner-dillard-governor-poll-20140307,0,3675788.story)

I'm starting to think that Dillard may have a shot. Rauner is definitely more likely, but Dillard's stock is going up considering Rutherfords collapse.

Yeah, though Rauner probably saturates the airwaves to keep Dillard at bay.

No matter who wins nomination, Quinn positioned himself as the alternative, to these conservative businessmen, who rejects min wage increase.

Rauner isn't especially conservative.  He's pro-choice and supports gay marriage, which may help him in the suburbs.  However, I fear his lack of experience and tendency to make gaffes may be too much to overcome against Illinois' infamous Democrat machine.

Rauner isn't especially conservative.  He's pro-choice and supports gay marriage, which may help him in the suburbs.  However, I fear his lack of experience and tendency to make gaffes may be too much to overcome against Illinois' infamous Democrat machine.
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And his gaffe on reducing min wage by 1.00, made him look like an out of touch businessman who doesn't care about poor or elderly with his poor business dealings with nursing homes.

If this becomes a big issue in the campaign, which it probably will, Quinn's got a beautiful outlook.

Suburban Cook always come through for Dems because they know how important OHare is. Speed rail and airlines are our future mass transportation. Just like they saved Blago against Topinka, another endangered incumbant.

But that was in 2006, which was a good Dem year nationally.

who says 2014 won't be? ;)

It's simple-minded, but if the GOP couldn't win the statehouse in 2010, I doubt they do it this time around. Yes, the Republicans do win down-ballot races in the state unless some blue states in which they can't sniff a result within 10 points, but 2010 was a disturbing loss.

But that was in 2006, which was a good Dem year nationally.
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That's why Vallas is the LT Gov nominee. Had it not been for Burris winning the urban areas, Vallas would have beaten Blago in 2002 primaries. Blago ran up the score in downstate, while Vallas did well in Sububan Cook.

Rauner is a much better candidate than Brady though, and isn't Quinn even more unpopular now?

Yes, but the state legislature is so gerrymandered with Cook Dems, it is possible Quinn can lose 98/102 counties like he did last time. Quinn doesn't win polls until Election Day. He was trailing Hynes and Brady by 7 pt margins, and expect to do same.