Talk Elections

2004/2012 PVI             2008-2012 PVI
Utah R+24                       R+22
Wyoming R+21                R+22
Idaho R+18                     R+18
Oklahoma R+17               R+19
Alabama R+14                 R+14
Nebraska R+14                R+12
Kentucky R+13                R+13
North Dakota R+12          R+10
South Dakota R+11         R+10
West Virginia R+10          R+13
Alaska R+10                    R+12
Kansas R+10                   R+12
Texas R+10                     R+10
Arkansas R+9                  R+14
Tennessee R+9                R+12
Louisiana R+9                  R+12
Mississippi R+9                R+9
Montana R+9                   R+7
South Carolina R+9          R+8
Indiana R+8                    R+5
Georgia R+7                    R+6
Arizona R+6                    R+7
Missouri R+5                   R+5
North Carolina R+4          R+3
Florida R+3                     R+2
Virginia R+2               EVEN
Colorado EVEN                D+1
Ohio: EVEN                     R+1
Iowa D+1                       D+1
New Hampshire D+1       D+1
Nevada D+1                   D+2
New Mexico D+2             D+4
Pennsylvania D+2           D+1
Wisconsin D+2               D+2
Michigan D+3                 D+4
Minnesota D+3               D+2
Oregon D+4                   D+5
Maine D+6                     D+6
New Jersey D+6             D+6
Washington D+6            D+5
Connecticut D+7            D+7
Delaware D+7               D+8
Illinois D+7                   D+8
California D+9               D+9
Maryland D+10              D+10
Massachusetts D+12      D+10
New York D+12             D+11
Rhode Island D+12        D+11
Hawaii D+13             D+20
Vermont D+14              D+16

Notice Hawaii loses 7 Dem PVI points. Virginia has an R PVI and CO and OH are both at EVEN PVI's.



 

Kerry had some magic in OH in 2004 and managed to make it vote left of the nation.  If you look at 1992-2000, Ohio was even further right of where it was in 2008-12.  Is OH historically pacifist?

Arkansas is 5 points more Democrat under the 2004/2012 PVI than it is under the 2008/2012 PVI.

Interesting that California hasn't shifted since 2004.  I would have thought it was even more favorable to the Democrats now.

Ohio still has quite a few Union voters (steel Industry, Auto Industry & Railroads) Union workers tend to go Democrat.

Well most of the western interior counties are growing(from So Cal to the Central Part of the state) and even though they are trending from swing counties I think to more Dem counties they are still moderately more conservative than the middle part of the state by the shore line. The middle shore line counties aren't growing as fast as the shore line counties in the central part of the state as well.