Talk Elections

What I mean by this is Virginia now a lean Democratic state, that is unable to be won by Republicans unless in a blow out? (and maybe not even then?)
I mean, look at both states, they are trending in opposite directions (MO trend R for last five elections, VA trend D for last four elections)
Also, it is possible that Virginia goes to Hillary more than the Democratic average in 2016.

Virginia is still a swing state, it can be won by Republicans, and it is possible for Hillary to get a higher % in Virginia compared to the whole country.

Option 3.

Hillary Clinton would more than likely find some of her core supporters in Virginia.

I think the better comparison would be that Virginia is now the Democratic Georgia and might eventually be the Democratic Mississippi.  There is basically 45-47% of the population in VA that will vote R every time.  The trouble is getting from 47% to 50% and the fact that Romney basically didn't move the needle an inch in the cities and inner suburbs suggests it could be a big problem.  It was the drastic increase in turnout that flipped the state in 2008- McCain actually got more raw votes than Bush!

Republicans will point to McDonnell in 2009, but the Democratic candidate against him ran such an poor campaign that the race was basically a state level Nixon/McGovern election.  The center-left defected completely to the perceived moderate R, counting on the split legislature to keep anything too weird from happening, but then they regretted it when the GOP took full control.  On a related note, I wouldn't expect any 65% landslides from Warner anymore.  The Republican base has seen that he votes as a normal Dem and that alone should make it a 55/45 race.   

VA is not a lock for Democrats it is still a swing state and both sides will have to fight hard if they want to win it.

Not yet. It will happen by 2020/2024.

Of cause by that time, the GOP will be having a North Carolina problem.

Probably not.  It all depends on what Republicans do between now and 2016.  Of course, it takes more than one or two elections to cement a state's voting patterns.

Not yet.

No of course it isn't.

If the current trend goes on, it could be by 2016/20/24..
However, if the GOP is actually doing something until then, Virginia can be won by Republicans also in the future.

Not yet, but unless the GOP makes major changes it will be.

But are the sorts of things that have made Missouri more Republican the sorts of things that have lead to Virginia becoming more Democratic?  In other words, would the correction in Virginia be detrimental to making Missouri even more red?

Well no the GOP can win VA in 2016 but not sure past that if they could.

If the "correction" is based on getting back into the mid 40's in Fairfax and winning Loudoun/Prince William/Henrico, then yes it probably would be detrimental to the Missouri R coalition.  On the other hand, an R resurgence in VA could be based on supercharged rural/Appalachian turnout and getting the rural areas to vote as R as the cities are D, which would also make Missouri even more R.

It's also worth noting that the focus on NOVA obscures just how much the Richmond suburbs have moved left and how much liberal turnout has improved in the Hampton Roads.

Serious Q for all of the people who voted No:

How do Republicans win Virginia over the next few elections?

GOP has already maxed out its vote in the rural parts of the state and that's proven to be not enough.  At the same time southwest Virginia is losing population and NOVA is rapidly gaining population.

The only way I see the GOP being competitive in Virginia is by making some pretty deep cuts into the D's advantage in Fairfax and a few other NOVA counties.  The only way to do this is to make serious platform changes especially on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.  I doubt they will do this.

That is basically the problem the GOP faces.  They have gone so far right to appease the base, they have turned off a ton of very important areas.  To get these areas back, or at least make them competitive again the GOP needs to turn away from their base.  The base isn't going to start voting Democratic again, but could start supporting hard line conservative third party candidates. 

As an aside, how the hell are you still a Republican?

Va has been voting for the election winner, along with OH/CO. Unless, the GOP makes inroads in either 3 of those states, the election outcome will favor the D's. Hilary has gotten off to a good start by leading Jeb and Walker in Ohio.

Look at rural GA and TN.  Why do you think that isn't the end state for VA-09/07 and the most rural eastern areas? 

I voted "Let's See 2016," but if Republicans are going to win Virginia, then they need to stop nominating guys like Ken Cuccinelli and the completely insane E.W. Jackson. That means getting rid of the convention nomination system and letting all the state's Republicans vote.

They were trying the rural turnout strategy.  It scared the party elite half to death, but you have to admit it worked better than expected.  Cuccinelli came closer than Romney after all.

I don't know if anybody else noticed this, but when Ken Cuccinelli gave his concession speech, he just read his victory speech in a sad tone of voice. "I'm going to fight to create jobs" and "You sent this President a clear message about Obamacare!" Well, he tried to turn it into a "referendum" on the Affordable Care Act, and while it won him some votes in the end, the voters, by his logic, supported it. And, not to mention, he never called Terry McAuliffe to concede like any sensible candidate would have.

I think you're making the mistake of believing that any Democrat will do as well as Obama, and any Republican will be as bad as McCain or Romney. Obama is a charismatic, likeable candidate. McCain & Romney have no charisma what so ever. If looking at two elections by a single candidate were actually an indicator, then the Eisenhower & Reagan elections should have issued in unbeatable Republican electoral majorities.

As far as your "social issues" argument goes, more and more people are actually becoming pro-life.

Virginia matched the popular vote more closely than any other state in 2008 and 2012.

So it's unlikely that it'll suddenly become 5-6 points more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the nation in 2016, especially with a likely reduction in African-American turnout.

Republicans won Missouri by 3.34 points in 2000 (3.84 points more than the popular vote), 7.2 points in 2004 (4.8 points more than the popular vote), 0.13 points in 2008 (7.07 higher than the popular vote) and 9.38 points (13.28 points higher than the popular vote.)

It took a while for the state to shift so significantly.

In 2028, Virginia might be a reliably left-leaning state. But we're not quite there yet.

When you consider that 8 out of 11 Us Congressmen from Virginia are republicans, and in there state house the numbers are 67 Republicans versus 32 Democrats, it really doesn't make sense for people to believe that a Republican can't win there.

I think that's explained by the increasing divide between urban and rural areas, but I do think that the right Republican can still win in Virginia. It's certainly not as easy as it was 10 years ago, but I don't think it's impossible.

You don't understand gerrymandering or political geography.

I understand gerrymandering, but that's a pretty big lead. You're not going to get 67 out of 100 state house seats & 8 out of 11 US House seats through gerrymandering, it's simply not that effective. I'm only stating that Virginia can be won by a Republican. My stance is that it's either in the "swing state" or "leans republican" category.

I think that maybe you don't understand how a lot of people vote for president. They generally vote for the person they'd rather hang out with, watch a game with or have at their barbeque. In the last two elections, that was Obama, in 2000 & 2004 it was Bush, in 1992 & 1996 it was Clinton. If the republicans pick "the candidate you'd rather be friends with" they'll win not only the general election, but Virginia as well. You also seem to forget that Virginia voted Obama at the same rate that the nation did.

Since you are a new member, I will be nice.

Look at Michigan. Because of redistricting, Republicans control both houses of the general assembly and the majority of the state's us representatives: so yes, it is that effective, but Michigan is not going to vote for a Republican president any time soon.

Michigan is 59-50, Virginia is 67-32, that's a huge difference. I also wouldn't count Michigan as impossible for a Republican (States along the lines of Mass, NY & Cal.

To commenters saying Rs can win Virginia by a "supercharged" rural turnout: if you look at actual registrations between 2004 and 2012,  statewide registration rose by 910,853, but in the 76 (of 134) Rural Virginia jurisdictions, registration increased by only 156,513.

If one compares 2004 and 2012, one finds that there was an increase of only 41,225 registered non-voters in the 76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions, contrasted by the 195,938 increase in the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions.  Thus, if there is a "missing" vote, it's in Metro-VA, not Rural VA

Democrats Gained More Votes Than The Republicans in Rural Virginia Between 2004 and 2012

   Coal Country was the only Virginia region -- rural or metropolitan -- where the Democrats lost votes between 2004 and 2012 – all 12,433 of them. In the 21 Coal Country jurisdictions Democrats lost a net 12,433 and the Republicans gained a net 18,468.  The registered nonvoter increase in Coal Country was all of 3,466. Everywhere else, Democrats gained – in Rural Virginia, a total of 62,417 from the Shenandoah Valley (up 27,318), Appomattox (up 13,069), Southside (up 12,914) and Eastern Rural (up 9,016). The Rural Virginia raw gain of 62,417 was 12.07 percent of the 2004-2012 Democratic commonwealth gain of 517,078; the Rural Virginia net gain of 49,984 was 9.66 percent. In contrast, the Republican net gain of 36,365 was 34.44 percent of the Republican commonwealth gain of 105,563, but was outpaced by the net Democratic gain.  What Republicans gained in Coal Country (net plus 30,901), was ditched by almost half in the Confederate Republican Southside (down 2,600) and in the ancestrally Republican Shenandoah Valley (down 10,672). Republicans gained the most in Appomattox (plus 27,603), but only 3,566 in the Eastern Rural counties. When the dust settled, Democrats outpaced the Republicans in Rural Virginia net gained votes, 49,984 to 36,365.   

A close analysis of actual registration and actual voting in the 58 Metropolitan Virginia jurisdictions between 2004 and 2012 shows that Democrats are gaining enough new votes in Metropolitan Virginia to the point that a 100 percent registered nonvoter turnout in the 76 Rural Virginia jurisdictions would not matter, because for Democrats: 
•   Richmond rocks – registration in Richmond City and the 18 suburban jurisdictions rose 154,007, the total vote rose 136,280, the Democratic Presidential raw vote rose 107,360, and the Republican Presidential raw vote rose by only 20,910 – resulting in a Democratic net gain of 86,450.
•   The nineteen-county Greater Richmond net Democratic gain of 86,450 add up to 57.90 percent of the 2012 Virginia Obama margin, and 21 percent of the 411,515 commonwealth margin shift between 2004 and 2012.
•   Hampton Roads is hyper -- in these 15 jurisdictions, registration rose by a net 174,912, the total vote rose by a 122,423, but the Republican raw vote fell by a net 8,569 – and the Democratic raw vote rose by a net 124,447. This net Democratic gain of 133,016 is 89.09 percent of the Obama 2012 Virginia margin, and 32.32 percent of. the commonwealth margin shift.
•   Northern Virginia has become the Super-NoVa in the commonwealth -- in the 24 NoVa jurisdictions (including the 2 University of Virginia and 11 Double-Republican exurban jurisdictions), registration rose by 417,190, the total vote rose by 293,338, and the Democratic Presidential raw vote rose by 233,827, whereas the Republican vote rose by only 41,242.  In the two University of Virginia and the 11 Double-Obama jurisdictions in Northern Virginia, the Democratic raw vote rose by 199,043 and the Republican rose by only 21,643.  Even in the 11 exurban Double-Republican jurisdictions, Democrats gained 34,744, whereas Republicans gained only 19,599. The Republican vote is static, and Democrats are moving in and up.  The Democratic margin of 192,385 from these 24 jurisdictions is the commonwealth-wide 2012 margin plus 43,087.


So, where in Rural Virginia are Rs going to make up these margins?  Between 2004 and 2012, the Dem vote increased by 517 T, Rs only by 105 T

I would certainly say so, with not only 2016 but also 2017 and 2018 in the rear-view mirror. 

2000: *FL*->NH->MO->OH->NV->TN->AR->AZ->LA->VA->CO->GA

2004: IA->NM->*OH*->NV->CO->FL->MO->VA->AR->AZ->NC->WV

2008: IA->*CO*->VA->OH->FL->IN->NC->MO->MT->GA->SD->AZ

2012: PA->*CO*->VA->OH->FL->NC->GA->AZ->MO->IN->SC->MS

2016: OR->NM->VA->CO->ME->NV->MN->NH->MI->PA->*WI*->FL->AZ->NC->GA->OH->TX->IA->SC->AK->MS->UT->MO

*WI* = tipping point state.

I'd say VA and MO swapped between 2004 and 2008, 2012 they looked like opposites, but Missouri went WAY right for Trump. If I had to venture a guess, MO will leapfrog back over UT, and MS to settle 10 states right of the tipping point, while VA might move a place or two to the left.

So, yes, Virginia is the Democratic Missouri.

How little they knew...

Woodrow Wilson was the last Dem to lose West Virginia and win Virgina. Now, even Warren can carry Va, since Obama and Hilary carried it for her.

Megacoattails

Um no and this comparison makes literally no sense. MO was a swing state for a century while VA was only a swing state for two election cycles as it was a Solidly Republican state for more than half a centuary (Dems only won VA once from 1952-2004 and even in 64 it was still significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole) .


A better comparison actually would be the Dems West Virginia

Yes. And in many ways, Virginia is Missouri's mirror-image. Whereas in Missouri, the rural and exurban areas have won out over the urban and suburban areas (and have always been dominant in that state), the reverse has happened in Virginia. In Missouri, of course, the dozens of rural counties between St. Louis and Kansas City determine the state's political fate, whereas in Virginia, it's destinies are shaped largely by Northern Virginia, and to a lesser extent, by the Richmond, Hampton Roads, and Virginia Beach metropolitan areas; the dozens of rural counties and smaller independent cities increasingly do not matter. Another difference is that Missouri's white population controls that state's fate, whereas Virginia's large nonwhite minority has a more substantive influence on its politics.