Talk Elections

Article. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/tillis-gains-in-primary-nc-senate-race-still-a-toss-up.html)

Hagan- 42%
Tillis- 43%

Hagan- 41%
Brannon- 43%

Hagan- 42%
Flynn- 44%

Hagan- 41%
Harris- 43%

Hagan- 41%
Grant- 43%

Hagan's approval is 39/49 (obviously lower than I'd like) which mirrors the 38/48 split against the ACA.

Tillis is up to 19% in the GOP primary; an improvement for him, but the toplines of this poll really don't reinforce any electability argument he would have.

None of the non-Tillis Republicans have under 70% unknowns.

Not too surprising. Hagan has a built-in advantage though- Tillis is toxic.

In this race, is Hagan basically a generic Democrat?

To some extent, but I think its more a function of the others being unknown Generic Republicans. For instance, if the voters in the general found out what a nut Branon is, (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/12/16/meet-wacko-bird-greg-brannon-the-tea-partys-secession-backing-public-school-hating-hopeful/) it wouldn't be a close race.

Yeah, the more people learn about the GOP field here, the less they'll like. They're doing so well right now just because they're generic Rs due to low name recognition.

Nothing to see for another couple of months, but Tillis is still their best bet despite his baggage.

Even if you take name recognition into account, the GOP really shouldn't be neck-and-neck with Hagan thanks to the damage they've caused the state...

Glorious news!

Mr. Thom 'Taxcut' Tillis will undoubtedly be campaigning on the massive decline of the unemployment rate after the white liberals were completely jettisoned from the state government.

Stop playing dumb for the sake of trolling. The majority of statewide offices are held by white Democrats. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_Council_of_State)

Ah, but Mr. Tillis would be referring to the primary office and the state legislature of course, and not secondary offices of lesser importance that had little to do with this.

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Why should North Carolina Republicans be proud about a unemployment rate that has consistently been higher than the national rate?

I was referring to your point about 'white liberals' being jettisoned from state government; this is of course flat wrong and you knew that.

As a Democrat I'm pulling for Brannon, especially with his latest comments.

Why would Tillis campaign on the Obama recovery?

I suspect the downward slope that began with Mr. Tillis and Mr. McCrory's joint tenure would be the source of that pride.

Right around June, North Carolina Republicans permitted the extended handout freeloader unemployment benefits program to expire. It turns out that resulted in a massive decline in unemployment! How about that!

Very well then. The white liberals were merely jettisoned from the Governor and Lt. Governor's office, I suppose. Guess it was enough.

He would not. Mr. Thom 'taxcut' Tillis would campaign on the Thom Tillis tax cut and the Thom Tillis recovery. Obama is associated with Hagan and vice versa.

So in other words, "Obama gets blamed for all the bad and Tillis/McCrory gets credit for all of the good."

Hagan is pulling a McCaskill/Reid and not running ads until the R primary is over, so that they can get their best possible opponent (Tillis/Brannon)

Moving this to the Toss-Up category, and I'm surprised by these recent results.

That is typically how political campaigns work, yes.

Basically, the runoff will be Tillis vs. someone (and considering how unpopular the legislature is, I have a hunch that whatever Republican emerges from the runoff, no matter how obscure, would be a serious challenger to and possibly even favored against Tillis). Unfortunately, two of the biggest names in opposition are Greg Brannon (too economically right; might make for a good Senator from a safe, Western state, but not NC) and Mark Harris (too socially right).

Heather Grant sounds to me, from a quick read about her, like she would be a good nominee -- a young woman, has no link to the state legislature, with a background in the military (can't hurt) and in medicine (can keep the focus on Obamacare), she can be the generic Republican to Hagan's generic Democrat (and in NC 2014, generic congressional R probably beats generic congressional D). Flynn doesn't sound particularly bad either -- just that Grant may be the stronger candidate. What do you think, Miles? (I could easily be wrong; I hadn't heard of her until I saw her name in this poll write-up and then read a single article about her linked from Wikipedia).

What I don't understand is why you have to make a point of trashing 'white liberals' every time NC comes up. You don't do that over at RRH. Surely, you have some sort of filter.

Do you just like to get called out here? You're a smart guy and I don't see why you like to resort to stuff like that.

Pub establishment may not be so keen on someone they see as a Some Dudette, plus they're configured for Tillis. Dunno if they'd quickly back a non-Tillis candidate or sulk. Miles?

Admittedly, I haven't followed either Grant or Flynn very closely. From the info on their websites that I've been checking, though, I just don't think either of them will have the fundraising/campaign effort to run a fully statewide operation. They both need to get more endorsements if they want to carve out greater niches for themselves, IMO.

Flynn strikes me as a loose cannon; I can see him having several gaffes. Grant is from Wilkes County, so she'll lack an urban geographical base, which is probably a precondition to making the runoff.

Your racism is so astounding. Why are you so obsessed with white liberals? Are white people only supposed to be conservative?

This poll makes more sense than ones I've seen previously.  I could never figure out why Brannon was polling so well against Hagan.

From what I've researched Grant would probably be the best candidate for reasons you gave. Harris might be able to win too. But Brannon's darker ties are going to come up, and if Republicans nominate her, he's going to be closer to Todd Akin than Ted Cruz.

Bill Flynn is essentially a Cruz acolyte. Whatever Ted Cruz does, he will follow. I'd say he's less toxic than Tillis, but more toxic than Harris. In order of electability I'd rank them Grant-Harris-Flynn-Tillis-Brannon.

FWIW, there was a candidate forum on the R side (https://twitter.com/PattieCurran/status/423239714519670784/photo/1) this evening. This was the third such event that Tillis missed though.

I'll try to post the video when (if) its released.