Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: ElectionsGuy on January 07, 2014, 10:29:07 pm



Title: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 07, 2014, 10:29:07 pm
I can only think of Jackson and the other small cities in Teton County. Even Laramie is questionable since Obama lost the county (Albany) and the rural population outside the city is very small. There are also a few native American towns in Fremont County, but other than that, Romney got pretty much everything. Any others you can find?


Title: Re: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: RedSLC on January 07, 2014, 10:33:47 pm
I think you named them all.

As for Laramie, I think Obama probably won it by a narrow margin, as he only lost Albany County by 2.5 percent, and the rural population outside of Laramie, while small, is hyper-republican, and could have decided the county's vote. However, without precinct-level results, I can't be certain.


Title: Re: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 07, 2014, 10:49:35 pm
I think you named them all.

As for Laramie, I think Obama probably won it by a narrow margin, as he only lost Albany County by 2.5 percent, and the rural population outside of Laramie, while small, is hyper-republican, and could have decided the county's vote. However, without precinct-level results, I can't be certain.

On second thought, I'm thinking Obama did win Laramie, as the county only went to Romney by 406 votes. I went on Dave's app, and did 2008:

City (31,043): 7,555 Obama (54.1%), 6,064 McCain (43.4%)
Rest (5,256): 1,872 McCain (61.8%), 1,089 Obama (36.0%)
Overall (36,299): 8,644 Obama (50.5%), 7,936 McCain (46.4%)

That gives us an idea. So it appears the rural vote is surprisingly powerful, the turnout is ridiculously high, and set back Obama by almost 4%. If something similar happened in 2012, Obama won the city for sure.



Title: Re: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: Alcon on January 08, 2014, 08:17:17 pm
Wyoming doesn't have many municipalities, and I'm reasonably sure that Jackson and Laramie were the only ones Obama won, 2008 and 2012.  (Jackson is the only incorporated place in Teton County.)  There are a few tiny municipalities without their own precincts, but they're all in extremely Republican areas.


Title: Re: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: Wherever you want to go, you can't go there! on January 08, 2014, 09:17:48 pm
I've wondered about Laramie. From my understanding of Ethete and Ft. Washakie (the Shoshone and Arapahoe town in Fremont country), they are almost as Republican as the rest of the state because they get their tribal welfare from mining severances and they blame Democrats for trying to stop it. Lander has a big neohippie community from the NOLS but they are no more than a few hundred in a town of a few thousand. Many of them are Republican hipsters and there's a new Catholic Seminary there as well. On the whole Lander seems like it went about 39% Obama but Riverton, the other major town in Fremont county is a drill hub and probably went maybe 20-22% Obama.


Title: Re: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 09, 2014, 11:37:17 am
Lolno.

As per the VRA... the relevant Native precincts in 2008...

Arapahoe 74% Native (69% VAP), 66% Obama
Ethete 85% Native (83% VAP), 79% Obama
Fort Washakie 87% Native (86% VAP), 76% Obama
The precincts are larger than the municipalities, of course, but there's no doubt who wins here. The only issue is turnout... and of course the fact that the de facto reservation(s) is (are) just a small portion of the nominal reservation. Which Riverton is in. Which in turn may actually be a factor in why it's so Republican. Wouldn't be an isolated case.
Lander gave Obama 43% in 2008 (winning one precinct, the northwest of town, although it was close and so were two others), so 39% in 2012 is realistic(ish - his percentage in the county declined just two points. Though there may have been increased native turnout). Brokeback Mountain City gave Obama 29% in 2008, so pretty bad, but definitely not 20-22 territory for 2012

These are some of the most militantly traditional / non-mainstream rezzes around, the home of the Sundance Ritual, and Shoshone especially is still a viable language. Hell would have to freeze over before they vote Republican.


Title: Re: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: Alcon on January 10, 2014, 03:27:50 am
Those aren't municipalities, those are CDPs.  There are no majority-Native municipalities in Wyoming


Title: Re: What Cities did Obama win in Wyoming?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 10, 2014, 09:53:00 am
Point taken. I just felt the need to defend these people's honor. ;D