Talk Elections

In the same vein as this thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152167.0), what state's results in the 2012 presidential election most surprised you?

IMHO: New Hampshire. I knew that Obama was gonna win this state, but I hadn't expected him to win it by such a pretty big margin.

It has to be Florida, but all other states were for sure in my head, I was really surprised that Obama came so close to winning North Carolina, but Florida was almost guaranteed in my mind, but I had no doubt it would be the closest.

Florida. I thought for sure that Romney would win it by a few points. Other surprises where West Virginia for the wider margin than expected and Alaska for the closer margin than expected.

Other.  I was surprised by the leftward swings of Alaska, Louisiana, and Mississippi, and by Obama collapsing as much as he did in West Virginia.

Of the closeish states? Colorado. Quite a lot of affluent white switched-to-Dem-in-08-but-still-winnable-for-Republicans inner suburban demographic material there, or so it seemed.

None of them.

I would vote for Alaska.

Florida, Colorado, and Virginia were the biggest surprises for me. As I thought all three of these states were going to go to Romney even though I felt confident that he wasn't going to win.

Judging solely by the winner, Florida.

Judging by margin of victory: Alaska, Mississippi, Georgia, Wisconsin (more D than expected), West Virginia, Missouri, and Ohio (more R than expected).

I was surprised at how poorly Obama performed in Missouri.

Not NC. I figured Romney would win but it was closer than I figured. Despite voting for Barry, every precinct in my county all went Republican for the first time ever. Clinton won 1 in 96, Mondale won 1 in 84, and McGovern won 2 in 1972 but no one else did that bad here.

I was surprised Barry won Florida, I figured Romney would pull it off. Same with Missouri, I thought Obama would upset there.

I had Florida as a <1% Obama win for a long time, dating back to August 2012.  Mason-Dixon's ridiculous Romney +7 poll did nothing to change that.

The only surprise to me was Ohio.  I didn't think it was going to be all that close, and Obama didn't even win it by 3%.  Not only that, but the area of the state that saw a swing to Obama, the South Central part, included several counties that didn't see much positive job growth at all; and more industrial areas in the Northeast of the state that saw good job growth after the bailout, mainly to the west of Cleveland, still saw a modest swing to Romney that mirrored the overall swing of 1% or so to the Republican side.  I would've guessed a result of around 52-46 Obama on election night.  Never materialized. 

As for minor surprises.

Oregon and New Mexico were more modest Obama victories than I thought they would be, considering Romney didn't even begin to contest them.

Louisiana's swing to Obama was actually quite stunning.  I had this as easily moving into >60% Romney. 

I didn't think the Dakotas would swing away from Obama quite that hard. 

Of the actual battleground states, Florida.  It was the one state I got wrong in my final prediction. 

I was also surprised by the margins in Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. 

The entire country, to be honest (Other)


I thought this would be a nail-biter. But if forced to pick one state: Florida, which I thought would swing heavily in Romney's favor.

Colorado and Florida were my two biggest slip-ups in my final call before the election. Also missed VA, but that was an extremely difficult call for me.

Florida, the only state I got wrong. But considering Nate Silver got every state correct, none of the state winners were surprises.

I was also a bit surprised that Vermont voted for Obama by almost the same margin as in 2008.

Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire were the bigest surprises for me, as I though Romney was going to come closer to winning those states. In addtion, I though that Obama was going to win Missouri, Georgia, North Carolina and Montana.

Virginia for me. I thought Obama only won it in 2008 because of his cult-of-personality. That turned to be true for Indiana, but not for Virginia.

Nothing really surprised me, I predicted every state correctly, though Alaska was a little closer than I would have thought and I thought Missouri would be a little closer.

Florida by far, although Virginia also surprised me, partially because having never watched a US Presidential election coming in, I thought my prediction of a Romney win there was going to come true.

I didn't expect WV to swing that hard against Obama either.

Definitely Arizona. How come I'm the only one to be surprised over Arizona not changing at all, depsite McCain not being on the (top of) the ticket? :o

Well a few: My own home state of NJ trending D which I think it did for 2 reasons because of Sandy hurting the voter turnout in The Jersey Shore Area of the State and the increased African American turn-out in ages 45-64 demographic especially women.

I was surprised Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina all trended D as well. I thought Romney had Florida but it didn't happen.

The Hispanic Vote in CA and NV swinging 6 and 7 points to Romney was a little surprising too.

I voted Pennsylvania, as the polls were close, and then Obama wins by 300,000 votes. I thought it was a nice payback to the PA Republican State Representative Mike Turzai who in June of 2012 said,

...And we've passed a voter ID law that will allow Governor Romney to carry Pennsylvania.

Like nearly everyone, I voted Florida.
I just thought Romney would win there... But I was surprised as I saw the results, and glad, too.