Talk Elections

1) In a Presidential election held around now, a Republican wins 49 states against a Democrat. What is most likely to be the state that votes Democratic? (DC is not a state, but will obviously be the last electoral votes).

2) In a Presidential election held around now, a Democrat wins 49 states against a Republican. What is most likely to be that last state?

#1 I'm really not sure at all. Purely on CPVI, you have Hawaii at D+20, Vermont behind at D+16 and several other states all well behind at D+11. But those are Obama-specific numbers, go back to the Bush years and those states are much further back. Nate Silver's elasticties (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/?_r=0) for each state gives us an indication - HI, VT, RI and MA are all strongly Democratic states that are nonetheless all well-above average in elasticity, and hence could easily vote for a Republican running strongly nationally. MD and NY, as strongly Democratic and inelastic states, may well be the last holdouts.


#2 Utah is the obvious pick. Wyoming seems slightly more elastic (see it electing a fair number of Democratic governors recently). I could see Oklahoma against the wrong kind of candidate (a highly successful Obama-clone?), but it has ancestral Democratic support that could turn out for a broadly successful national Democrat. Alabama and maybe Mississippi are the other possibilities - less Republican than Utah, but much more inelastic. Still, they have a bit of residual Blue Doggedness.

Vermont, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Massachusetts are all plausible options. Hawaii is probably too elastic to be the last state and Obama over performed there anyways. MA, VT, and RI are all elastic, but they are elastic in a way that would vote for a moderate republican. Since we know that's unlikely to happen at the presidential level, we can probably forget the elasticity argument for those states. Vermont would be my #1 guess, especially recently.


Utah, definitely. Utah has always been the most republican state I think since 1976, with the exception of 2008. Other options could include Wyoming (especially with its recent trend), Idaho, Oklahoma, and even Alabama (for its in-elasticity). If states like WV, AR, TN, KY trend even further to the right, those could also be possibilities.

Not Rhode Island.

I think Massachusetts or Vermont for the Democrats, and Utah for the Republicans.

VT, UT. All floating around the number 8 button on my flip cell phone, which contains the letters "TUV".

Vermont has elected plenty of Republicans to statewide though their most recent Governor was a Republican. I can't remember the last time Utah has elected Democrat statewide.

The thing is that a lot of the traditionally elastic states barely moved an inch from 2008-2012 and some traditionally in elastic states moved in surprising ways.  I would go by best non-home state numbers for the past 2 cycles.  That means VT for last D holdout and your pick of WY/OK for the last R holdout.

These would probably be realistic maps:


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Definitely Utah for the GOP. I'm gonna say Maryland for the Democrats, but that one's a lot more up in the air.

The polarization in this country is so high now (including geographic polarization) that it borders on impossible for a candidate to do well in both a state like New York and a state like Oklahoma and win them both (even though FDR, Eisenhower, LBJ, Nixon and Reagan managed to).

I'm going to be slightly more realistic and suggest a 44-state landslide, like the ones FDR got in 1932 and Reagan got in 1980. (Carter also won DC in 1980, which could not vote in 1932). The losing candidate wins 6 states in each case.

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On the D-landslide map, AL should be blue, and possibly MS. TN's R swing is too recent for me think it should belong. I'd go for KS over NE.

The D map seems reasonable to me.

A massive landslide is possible, I just don't think it will be as much of a uniform improvement around the board as some people think.  The kind of Democrat who would sweep the Rocky Mountain West and the South I imagine would have to be running a pretty dang populist message that might upset a few people in New York and Connecticut, thus actually driving down their numbers in those states as opposed to an Obamalike Democrat who could easily get over 60% there.  Same thing could be said about a Republican who ends up winning New Jersey and New York.

It's a lot more likely that the winner would be an incumbent with a strong economy or other reason for their popularity other than their ideology.

Probably Vermont for the Democrats. 

Definitely Utah for the GOP.

Yes, point is though that I severely doubt any presidential candidate is going to get over 70% in New York.  It's like a "how much more Democratic can San Francisco" get kind of scenario.

I agree with what someone else said that you aren't going to see a 49 state victory by anyone. If either major party candidate was that bad or had that broad of an appeal, I think you'd see an independent candidate take a few states.

I'd say:

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So basically conservative Western states and polarized Southern states.

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So basically states where Republicans can't overcome some combination of big cities, minorities, and liberal whites.

Utah would be the last republican holdout, no question about it


Democrats are a bit harder. I think Vermont is the most liberal, but given that its all white, it makes me a little less inclined to chose it considering whites vote for both parties whereas minorities generally vote dem only. Massachusetts would be a good choice then, although Hawaii is interesting though its large Asian population makes it a bit of a wildcard

Wyoming might be even more of a holdout than Utah. Romney was more popular there than the typical Republican (just as Obama was stronger in Hawaii than the typical Republican.) Nebraska's third congressional district is probably the Republican equivalent of Washington DC, so that's probably joining Wyoming.

On the Democratic side, Vermont's been getting more left-wing, although it was within ten points recently enough in 2000. Rhode Island's consistently in the top five, but other states are beating it. New York's been getting more liberal, and it's a really expensive media market. Although numbers were probably inflated in 2012 thanks to Sandy. Massachusetts has another expensive media market, and that's been pretty consistently Democratic. My guess is that the last state standing in a Republican landslide would be Massachusetts (along with DC.)

Mississippi was Romney's 17th best state and gets more Democratic every year as olds die and replaced by youngs.  Even John Kerry won the under-30s in Mississippi (now the under-39 population), and he only did that in about 30 states.

By 2016, I bet Mississippi is the 19th or 20th most Republican state.  It simply doesn't belong as a holdout on a 40+ state Democratic landslide.

1) In a Presidential election held around now, a Republican wins 49 states against a Democrat. What is most likely to be the state that votes Democratic? (DC is not a state, but will obviously be the last electoral votes).

Vermont.  I don't see any of these people changing their minds. 

Although I suppose if a Republican won 49 states it must be a super moderate republican running against a disaster of a democrat, so I suppose I could see a scenario where the last holdout state would be Maryland simply because the combination of blacks that won't vote Republican + other minorities that won't vote Republican + non-moderate ultra party line liberals in Baltimore and Montgomery county would be just enough to push Democrats over the top even in a disaster election.

2) In a Presidential election held around now, a Democrat wins 49 states against a Republican. What is most likely to be that last state?

Maybe Mississippi - same reason as Maryland above but in reverse, even in an election where lots of moderates and Reagan Democrats help Democrats win states like Georgia, West Virginia, Utah, etc., I could see a lot of white holdouts simply because the voting is so racially polarized.

I don't think either of these scenarios is at all likely considering how polarized and party line elections are nowadays though.

That's an interesting theory re: Maryland and Mississippi.

Vermont or Maryland for the Republican and Utah or Oklahoma for the Democrat.

I reckon Maryland is actually a pretty decent answer. Hawaii loves incumbents (which frankly is the only way a Republican's getting a 49-state landslide), and the triumvirate of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont can still and have voted for moderate Republicans (which the Republican would have to be). New York could be another one, I guess, but I reckon it's the right sort of state that could consider a certain slant of Republican. Of course, if it was a conservative who was just crazy popular, then the answer would be Vermont.

Republicans, the correct answer is Utah. Oklahoma if it is a crazy popular liberal, but it definitely would vote for the right kind of Democrat.

To who said Mississippi - I reckon Alabama's a better fit. With Mississippi you only need about 20-25% of the white vote to win (which granted is hard), but Alabama's black population is smaller and the polarisation is only slightly better.

I agree with you about Vermont. If a Republican such as Jon Huntsman received the nomination and faced off against a particular weak Democrat, then Huntsman could potentially carry Vermont, albeit barely. In Oklahoma, it seems that the more conservative Republican candidates do the best in the state, so even if it is a Hillary Clinton vs Rick Santorum race, Santorum would still win the state by a landslide even if he was losing big elsewhere.

Maryland, definitely. It's county map is deceptive, but it certainly isn't one to vote for pubbies, particularly Nat'l ones.

Vermont and Oklahoma

A Mormon Dem, in decent standing with the LDS running against an evangelical R, who makes a point of saying that his opponent is not Christian, could win Utah. I would say OK vs VT

Given that Maryland voted for a Republican governor last election, and Vermont came very close to doing so, I'd be interested to see if any Democrats have changed their mind.

Think the last holdout for Team D might be California these days.

Oklahoma and Rhode Island

Wyoming and California

For the Democrats...

They haven't won a county in Oklahoma since 2000. Utah's a good choice though...Oklahoma is probably more conservative, but Utah is probably more partisan. Wyoming is also a good choice. Here's one no one has mentioned: Idaho. Hasn't gone Dem since 1964 and it was very close that year.

For the Republicans..

Not sure what state it is, but I'd rule out Hawaii because it likes incumbents (it would only be the holdout if the D candidate was from the state) and Maryland because it has too many GOP areas, unlike Massachusetts or Vermont. So I'd go with one of those. New York's not a bad choice though...I imagine that even a Republican winning a 49-state landslide would just BARELY carry NY.

Oklahoma and Rhode Island

I can't really think of a 100% Dem holdout state. VT, WA & OR would be decent candidates. OR for example was found in 2004 to have both the most liberal voters and the most conservative.

As for the GOP, easily MS. I don't care how many blacks MS has, basically 50-52% of MS is the most stubbornly Republican electorate in the country. It is unmovable. Even AL whites would be easier to move since a decent number are Appalachian.

You're saying someone like myself? Given how much respect Utah gives Harry Reid, I doubt that.


I'd go with for GOP: One of three anti Citizens United states (Illinois [Chicago machinery for this one], Vermont, or California)

For Dems: Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, or Alabama

Maryland, NY or MA for Democrats.

Utah, Wyoming or Idaho for Republicans.

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DC and MD for Dems

or,

UT and NE-03 for GOP

I tried to post maps, but apparently I need at least 20 posts to be able to do that. Sorry, I'm new.

Hawaii, which is even more exaggerated in its minority-majority identity than California, would hold out longer than California.

Let's try for 13 electoral votes (1984).


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Fourteen for a Republican mismatch for most of the US.

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A Republican nominee incompetent enough to offend the Mormon hierarchy.

In both, the Republican wins NE-03, one of the most Republican districts in America
 

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1984 all over.

Hawaii is really incumbent-friendly though, perhaps down to its Asian culture. It probably would be the last holdout if the Republicans won 49 states despite not being an incumbent, but if anyone was to win a landslide of that proportion, they'd be an incumbent.

At this point, Alabama and Maryland

You'd have to wonder what sort of candidates would have to run under the right conditions for a 49-state landslide to even be possible, before considering which state would be the holdout. Obviously, the less elastic states are more likely to be holdouts, as are states that seem averse to the other party at all levels.

As of right now, I'd say Oklahoma and Maryland.

Republicans: Wyoming
Democrats: California or Hawaii (if CA continues to trend D, the former prevails; if HI swings back to 70-75 D then the latter prevails)

I'd say California and Alabama, particularly if the Republican is someone like Donald Trump.

Fix this post with "someone like Donald Trump" and that is closer to the truth.

Anyway, with the way this election turned out, probably HI vs WY

WV would be the Massachusetts '84/Minnesota '72 in a D landslide, CA would likely be the reverse.

For D's, probably Utah, because for democrat to win KT and TN, a huge flip of white republicans would be needed. That flip would affect all of the south.

For R's probably CA.

West Virginia still has a lot of Democrats and I'd think they'd vote well to the left of Wyoming in a Republican nightmare scenario.

I'd say either Maryland or California for Democrats.  Hawaii is different from the rest of the country.

I think this is what we need to imagine.  WV is uber-Republican right now, but 1) that is REALLY based on the last two Democrats + Trump appeal and 2) this is far from a "nightmare scenario" for either party.  In a 1932/1972-type scenario for Democrats (winning), WV would certainly get on board, IMO.  Such a scenario would cast voting Republican in an almost-indefensible light (likely due to economic conditions), and all the WV Dems would likely come home in desperate times.

I am going to go with Wyoming for Republicans and Maryland for Democrats.

I'm gonna say Oklahoma for Ds (West Virginia and Kentucky still have the Bill Clinton thing, and Wyoming Idaho and Utah all have the Mormon thing. North Dakota isn't conservative enough yet.)

and California for Rs. It's huge, mostly urban, and has Hispanics, Asians, liberal whites, and some African-Americans. Maryland would just require a very popular black Republican - Hawai'i was close in 2004. New York and Vermont also flip before CA.

Hawaii and Wyoming.

Wyoming and California.