Talk Elections

Ohio Gov. John Kasich begins his reelection year with a 44 - 37 percent lead over a largely unknown possible Democratic challenger, Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is down from a 47 - 33 percent lead for Gov. Kasich in a June 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Today, Kasich leads 88 - 4 percent among Republicans and 43 - 31 percent among independent voters, while Democrats go to FitzGerald 74 - 7 percent. Men back the Republican 48 - 35 percent while women are divided with 39 percent for Kasich and 38 percent for FitzGerald.

Ohio voters approve 52 - 33 percent of the job Kasich is doing as governor, close to his all-time high job approval of 54 - 32 percent June 25, and give him a 41 - 30 percent favorability rating.

For FitzGerald, 71 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

"Ohio Gov. John Kasich enters his reelection year with only a 7-point lead over a largely unknown challenger. On the plus side, his approval ratings mark a huge turnaround from his first two years, when his job approval was in the 30s and Democrats were licking their chops at the prospect of making him a one-termer," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But he's below the 50 percent mark in the matchup and on whether he deserves reelection.

"Democrat Ed FitzGerald has a long way to go to introduce himself to the voters of Ohio, Only about one in four voters know enough about him to have an opinion, meaning three in four don't know much about him."

"It will take a lot of money and time for the Cuyahoga County Executive to reach those voters, but introducing himself to them is his job one," Brown added. "While FitzGerald is trying to define himself, Kasich can be expected to spend a pretty penny trying to negatively define the Democrat."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1982

Not surprising

This is helping Kasich:

Fitz is only getting 74% of Democrats and 68% of blacks, as he's still largely unknown. This race is winnable, though Kasich starts favored.

I guessed that PPP was somewhat off here, but 44% isn't that great of a position with Fitzgerald still not well-known.

Poll looks very republican favored. But at the same time, I think Kasich has the slight edge if the percentages and demographics were right.

Either PPP or Quinnipac is way off. Time will tell which one.

This speaks volumes.

Kasich approvals are at 50 percent, this race isn't out of reach yet. There is perhaps a third party candidate that PPP polled that may suck votes away from Kasich. Columbus Dispatch poll is the most reliable pollster, we should wait to hear from them.

Shouldn't his head to head numbers be better if his approval is so high?

I'm crossing my fingers it's Quinnipiac. I didn't believe their previous poll that Kasich was up by 14 and had a 54% approval and I'm very skeptical about this to especially them saying 50 to 39 that they approve of how Kasich is handling the economy when it's in a terrible state right now. PPP tends to be more accurate with their polling and included Charlie Earl in the race while Quinnipiac didn't. Although since 2010 Green nominee, Dennis Spisak, recently declared his candidacy again, this could hurt FitzGerald if Spisak gets on the ballot and may not even matter as much with Earl in.

One thing to point out though, apparently the Ohio General Assembly is in negatives with a low 41% approval and 42% disapproval so considering this pollster leans R, the legislature is probably in the mid 30s which if it stays constant or maybe worse could cause them to lose a few seats next year in the Ohio House of Reps.