Talk Elections

VA results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/VA_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

VA Governor only:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/VA_Governor_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NJ results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/NJ_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NJ Governor only:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/NJ_Governor_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NYC results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/NY_Mayor_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

As usual, the GOP will likely be ahead in early returns in VA as downstate usually reports first.  Then, they will get swamped up north and that will be that.  It used be a democratic sweep in the Old Dominion, which is a very poor sign for the GOP in my opinion.

As for NJ, the only question will be, will Christie break Kean's record?

That would be 70% ...

Nope.

But if the Christie result is BIG (2/3 or so), what are the chances that either the House or the Senate in NJ change parties ?

Or will DEM voters vote for Christie in high numbers, but vote to keep their DEM Senators and Reps. ?

What happened when Kean won the landslide ? Did Republicans back then also win one of the two chambers, or both ? Or None ?

Early turnout in some precincts not bad:

What time do the polls close in each respective contest?

VA usually closes at 1am, NJ 2am and NY at 3am, my time.

Subtract 6 hours for local closing times.

Add 7 hours to Western Australia time.

In Virginia polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Not Christ, but Christie ... ;)

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Heavy turnout in Arlington

Arlington County’s voters are turning out in higher-than-expected numbers on this Election Day, reports county registrar Linda Lindberg.

“We are probably at 15 percent turnout at 10 a.m., and that’s just the precinct numbers,” said Lindberg. “Our absentee vote was 12 percent, which is about 50 percent higher than four years ago.”

If the turnout continues at this pace, Lindberg expects about half of the county’s 137,000 active registered voters to cast a ballot today — unusually high for an election with no presidential or senate race on the ballot.

At precincts along the central Glebe Road corridor, the turnout has surprised both voters and poll workers.

“We had 40 voters in the first 15 minutes we were open,” said Tyra Baker, precinct captain at Drew Recreational Center, where 329 of more than 2,000 registered voters cast ballots by 10 a.m. “This is extremely busy for a non-presidential year.”

Charles Head, a precinct captain at Thomas Jefferson Community Center, agreed that turnout was “surprisingly heavy.”

“It’s been a steady stream since we opened and it hasn’t stopped,” he said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-election-day-2013/?id=c80e9015-7bab-4cc5-b141-1b5ca16fec14

A few pictures:

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Plus: What's Assad doing in NJ ?

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I always like when US newspapers write about "high turnout", when - in the end - only 50% of registered (which is not even all 18+ olds) voters turn out.

Anything on NJ turnout yet?

Don't forget the WA Senate special election today- Appointed Democratic Incumbent Nathan Schlicher is trying to fend of a challenge from Republican Jan Angel. I think Angel has the advantage.

Early VA exit polls: electorate demographics are like 2012's, not 2009's (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-election-day-2013/?id=2581f6e5-ee39-4b0f-9109-b80405fc52f7)

40% of voters are Democrats and 30% are non-white. Dominating.

Italophobia is always a good motivation for the Democratic base.

Send Cuccinelli back to the Mezzogiorno!

NYC Early Exit Polls:

Voters approve of Bloomberg 52-45

Despite this, 70% say they would rather a new direction than a continuation of his policies

Voters disapprove of stop-and-frisk 55-39

Despite this, Ray Kelly's approval is at 65%

And unlike in Virginia, where everyone hates everyone, 87% of voters chose their candidate because they liked him

http://www.nytimes.com/news/election-2013/2013/11/05/new-york-exit-poll-ready-for-change/?smid=tw-share

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2013/results

Here's another interesting results page.

Can't wait for the results to come in!

NBC: T-MAC LEADS EARLY EXIT POLLS, TOO EARLY TO CALL
LT GOV, AT GEN ALSO TOO EARLY TOO CALL

T-Mac: 50
Kook: 43
Sarvis: 7

T-Mac leads women 54-38, Kook leads men 47-46

What chances both candidates fail to get 50% of the vote in Virginia?

What would be the bad/expected/excellent % totasl for Christie?

Wow! Cuccinelli only wins men by 1 point!

Very little, I expect McAuliffe to get around 51% of the vote.

Christie:

Bad: 55-59
Expected: 60-63
Excellent: 64+

Here are the VA exit poll results: http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

Not sure if there's anything for Lt. Gov or Attorney General.

Virginia's State Board of Elections results page:
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

Results are available down to the precinct level.

95-5 black voters. That is a shocking stat for the republican party to take in.

Feeling pretty good about my McAuliffe +5% prediction.

Here's a good chart of county result benchmarks, based on the last three elections and a hypothetical T-Mac 7.5% win: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AvOrrxBeaarVdFQ1NGJLa1UyMVpRYjZTTVZ1aVE2V0E&toomany=true#gid=0

FIRST VOTES ARE BEING COUNTED OMG

Let's see how Christie does. Cuccinelli was always going to go over like a lead ballon with blacks.

lol, Obamacare (48-50) is more popular in Virginia than Obama himself (46-53)

Only 1% of voters lack a high school diploma, but 63% have at least a Bachelor's? Pants on fire!

Northam is leading Jackson with the same vote that has Cuccinelli up by a little bit, lol!

Nah that's pretty par for the course for the last 4 decades, give or take 5%

New wave of exit poll numbers coming in, Obama's approval is now 48-52 in the updated exits.

Looks like a lot of Democratic late voters. Hallelujah!

Not with Cooch.

So, it looks like Big Mac will win fairly comfortably and without much suspense. Anybody care to predict individual counties/ind cities to make it more interesting? Can he carry Virginia Beach? Anything west of I-81?

Not much use considering it doesn't take 3rd party vote for the numerical benchmarks.

Has any republican ever got lower than 5% of the vote from the african community in a state wide election?

Maybe McCain or Gilmore in 2008.

7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

That's not quite true. Republicans never really did this poorly with blacks pre-Obama. When Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole in a blowout in '96, he only won the black vote 84%-12% for example.

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...

Who else thinks the dem will get 60+ on Jackson?

Oh I agree totally. But my point is he should also be doing better than a single point over Cooch even downstate, so......

I think its actually quite likely.

Obenshain is doing 5-6 points better than Cooch according to the State Board of Elections' numbers, which are running ahead of the AP tally.

First big Dem victory of the night. Dems capture the St. Petersburg mayor's office from the GOP in Florida; good warm up act for the House special.

With 9% in...

McAuliffe (D): 39.5%
Cuccinelli (R): 52.0%
Sarvis (L): 8.4%

Herring (D): 42.1%
Obershain (R): 57.9%

Northam (D): 48.5%
Jackson (R): 51.5%

Some rural republican parts are in. Seeing as these are rural republican parts, these are not good for republicans!

Two very interesting notes from the VA Exit Polls:

1) Democrats now outweigh Republicans in VA? Hmmmmm.  Wow if true even though the democrats have been on a roll in the past few cycles (outside of 2010).

2) Those with post-graduate degrees favored the democrats bigtime.  Wow.

Fairfax coming in now; T-Mac running about at Obama 2012 margins.

Thanks Cynic. That's brighter news for Obenshain, but probably still a bit short.

Northern VA always reports later.  The GOP would need to be near 60% in the rurals areas to win. Not even a contest.

So, extrapolating from what we have now, probably Jackson loses by double-digits, Cuccinelli high single-digits, and Obenshain low single-digits? Shame.

I don't think Terry is going to win by high single-digits. He's not doing much better (in some cases worse actually) than 2012 Obama.

The Christieslide in NJ will make up for a fairly narrow loss in a toss up state.

Virginia House (leading so far):

GOP: 48
DEM: 18

Here are the VA House results: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/VA_House_of_Delegates_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Is McAuliffe doing better or worse than Obama's 2012 numbers? I read somebody saying he was slightly underperforming Obama, is this correct?

If so, this election could be really close after all ("Shy Cuccinelli voters"?).

Cooch is sweeping Appalachia :(

He's doing about the same so far, maybe slightly (1% or so) worse. But very little of Northern Virginia is in yet. He'll presumably outperform Obama 2012 there.

It's very unusual though for the presidency to remain in democratic hands and then the following year for the democrats to sweep VA clean.  

Is the Old Dominion becoming the next of a line of states (i.e. CO, OR, MN, etc) where the GOP is becoming unelectable with an empty cabinet?

Chris Christie projected winner.

And the polls have closed in NJ.  Christie projected based upon exit polls.  What was Kean's percentage he's looking to exceed?

Have they even counted the votes yet? Or was this a joke? :P

How did you find out?

Excellent news anyways. :D

Two words: Exit polls.

Watching MSNBC live.

Christie right at 60% in the exit poll.

Christie improved quite a bit with blacks (winning 19%) but his numbers with Hispanics aren't that much better than generic Republican (31%).

21% of blacks, 45% of Hispanics.  (from CNN exits)

Almost all of Buchanan Couty is in and T-Mac is losing 66-32, worse than Obama :P

Christieslide!

Two words: Exit polls.
[/quote]

Do you know when the votes will start rolling in?

That's amazing! Can't wait to see the white margin


Do you know when the votes will start rolling in?
[/quote]

Soon.

McAuliffe getting 70% in Arlington. Cuccinelli dominating Southwestern Virginia, and Cuccinelli narrowly leading Virginia Beach.

NBC declares Northam the winner in Virginia.

Again, what was Kean's percentage he's trying to break? My guess a month ago was Christie at 59%.

Can't wait to see how my hometown voted.

Think Virginia might turn out closer than expected...

Thanks.

Looks like this will be much closer than most of the polls predicted. I thought that the polls might have been slightly off here; presumably the chance of that happening is higher in a low turnout race  like this than, say, a presidential election.

Sad to see that Virginia might actually elect Cuccinelli governor.

Don't get pessimistic, Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia has a LOT to come in yet.

71%.

Hang on, but isn't Obenshain supposed to overperform Cuccinelli more so in NoVa than Appalachia? If he's going 7 ahead now, it seems possible that could rise to 8-9, which should definitely be enough to overcome Herring.

Does seem interesting that Cuccinelli-McAuliffe is going to likely be at Obama levels (worse in Appalachia, better in NoVa, should even out). Obama only won Virginia by 4%; that's a good deal less than the 7-8 margin predicted for McAuliffe. Very premature to be discussing this, but any thoughts on why this is the case? Issues with the polls themselves, or was there movement in the final days? If the latter, why?


#upset


Kean was reelected 70-29 in 1985, but I don't think that was ever realistic in the modern day New Jersey. For either party.

47% McAuliffe
45% Cuccinelli

CNN Exit Poll

NBC now classifying Virginia as "too close to call." Not good.

Wow, looks like the last minute boost for Cuccinelli could actually be true.

Relax.  Six point win for McAuliffe.

There will be less than 1% point separating McAuliffe and Cuccinelli, I think. This looks damn close.

Anyone noticing that McAuliffe is doing better in smaller population counties and doing worse in the big counties???

Looks like a Clinton map, focused on small pockets rather than an army of urbanized vote carpet bombers sweeping the election away.

Numbers are not great from Loudoun and Prince William. These usually are the ones to stare at. Seem slightly down on the dems.

Sarvis appears to be holding up as well.

AG race has tightened to 54.6% - 45.4% with only 33% in. Not good for the republicans.

Think about it this way.  When was the last time that a candidate was NEVER ahead in any poll the month prior to election day and somehow won?

Dean Young up 11-7 in AL-1.

Al Gore 2000 and he did win. Best political comeback ever!!! New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa and Florida all wafer thin margins but good enough!

Loudon and Prince William are bellweathers. T-Mac leads by about 1% in both so far.

McAwful indeed.

The results right now in Virginia are terrible so far...

There are some very Republican areas in those counties and we have no idea where the vote is coming in from.

I do think Sarvis is going to save T-Mac.

WaPo has result maps for Gov, LG and AG:
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/elections/guide/2013/VA/general/

Looks like we are headed for McAuliffe victory by 3 points or so.  Looks like AG is +2 R relative to Governor so it will be very close there and down to the wire.

Cuccinelli's rise may not have been a dead cat bounce after all.

We've never had a race between two such disliked candidates.

Yes, it's hard not to feel a little sorry for the voters of Virginia.

This is based on?...


I wonder which side he takes more voters from -- I remember in a lot of Senate races in 2012, the Republican candidate was generally the second choice (this was the case in Montana and Indiana), but Johnson's supporters actually narrowly had Obama as their second-choice.

Does anyone remember at what time in Election Night 2012 did Obama overtake Romney in Virginia?


Christy Clark, earlier this year. Alison Redford last year. In the US, pretty sure Bill Owens, in the 2009 Upstate New York special, had never led in a poll -- it was Scozzafava, then Hoffman. Plus I haven't heard anyone predict Cuccinelli winning outright, just a narrower-than-expected T-Mac victory.

Loudoun is ok

Prince William the numbers are terrible for the democrats.

Of course Loudon and Fairfax only have votes counted in the teens so it could still turn more McAuliffe 's way for him to win a 5-6 point victory.  We will see.

McAuliffe will pass Cuccinelli with 80% of precincts reporting.

McAullife is up by 6 in Prince William County.

In McAuliffe's favor is Arlington is mostly counted and he is running ahead of Obama by a couple of points.

Usually the more suburban parts of the NOVA counties report first, the inner precincts report last.  So I think the margins might tick up more in the Democrats favor.

45% in...Cucinelli by 5%.  Of course, there are no live maps this year to show where the counted votes are coming from.

Pretty much.

No one was excited to vote today.

Norfolk  county numbers are shocking for the democrats. They are waaay behind there on 2012 levels.

Any info on the Sarvi voters in terms of who their second choice would have been if there had been a runoff?  Looks like another race where GOP would benefit from either Austrailian/Irish style IRV voting or a French style runoff system.

Obama won Buckingham County twice, but Cuccinelli carried it tonight.

I seem to remember a certain Nevada US Senate Race not too long ago.

Anyways, as a Canadian, I must laugh at the original statement.

It is clear that McAuliffe is running behind Obama in Southern Virgina urban areas.

Wow, some excitement!

I can't stand McAuliffe and the Clintons so I can live with them getting some egg on their faces by nearly losing to this joker.

Of course, I hope Cuccinelli doesn't actually win. He is a horror.

Cuccinelli won in the City of Williamsburg

I have it 48-47 14% reporting;

Precinct-level results are available from the State Board of Elections' website by clicking on the individual county results here:
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SWR&rid=315&osn=4&map=CTY

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2013/results

Only Virginia unfortunately. New Jersey will have maps later I suspect. (Or now if anybody can find it).

Part of me always thought he'd figure out a way to lose. He always seems to.

48-45 Coochy. Leading by 40,000.

he's taking a beating in the south east. the numbers are awful.

And here comes northern VA.  57% in now and the candidates are near even.

61% reporting:

Kook +3.5%
Obenshain +6%

I don't think this is as close as everyone is saying, I'd be shocked if it's only 2 points.  McAuliffe is only behind by 3 points and 75% of Fairfax hasn't been counted.  Almost none of Charlottesville has been counted, there are still a lot of votes in Arlington and Alexandria as well...

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/ShowMap.aspx?iframe&cat=CTY&rid=315&type=SWR&osn=4&pty=0&cty=0&map=CTY

This map is straight from the Virginia Board of Elections! :D

thanks :) i hope norfolk looks better there.

61.16% in:

Cuccinelli: 48.03%
McAuliffe: 44.66%

There's only a minority of precincts reporting so far.  (and it's actually the City of Norfolk)

Sarvis continues to hold steady at 7%.

If I were Cuccinelli I would be very angry at Sarvis.  Without Sarvis it seems that Cuccinelli would have a good chance to win looking at these results.

I think T-Mac will win by 3% or so. Which means a pure tossup for AG, if the relationship between those two races stays the same.

So, they're changing the exit polls to conform with the actual results? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of having exit polls?

That's what they always do.

Hopefully it will send a message to my party that sane, non Tea Party libertarians are the future of our party.

Yes.  But this what they did in 2004.  All exit polls had Kerry winning in swing states and then as the results came in for Bush, THEY CHANGED THE EXIT POLLS.

Christie is at 60% with 3% of precincts reporting. Buono has 38%.

68% in, Coochy by 30,000 votes (47.5-45.2).

2012 Chesterfield county 53-45 Romney +8
2013 Chesterfield county 49-41 Cuccinelli +8

2-3pt race.

"My platform is so repugnant that a sizable part of the Republican/conservative-leaning electorate refuses to vote for me. Therefore it's all the fault of the man they're choosing to vote for instead."

So what happens if Sarvis gets at least 10% of the vote?  Will it just be easier for Libertarians to get on the ballot in Virginia?

They always change the exit polls. They compare the results from the precincts they polled once they come in to their survey results. That's how they're then able to call the race before 100% of votes are counted.

Update:

65% In

Virginia Governor:

McAuliffe (D) - 44.5%
Cuccinelli (R) - 48.4%
Sarvis (L) - 7.1%

Lt. Governor:

Northam (D) - 52.4%
Jackson (R) - 47.6%

Attorney General:

Herring (D) - 46.5%
Obershain (R) - 53.5%

New Jersey Governor (5% in)

Christie (R) - 61.1%
Buono (D) - 37.4%

The exit poll shows Sarvis doing better with liberals and independents than conservatives. In particular, he's getting a large number of young people. I'm not sure that I trust these exit polls, but they don't suggest that he is drawing Cuccinelli voters.

What is interesting is that Sarvis is running strong in places where Cuccinelli is running strong AND McAuliffe running about the same as Obama.  This means that  Sarvis took votes away from  Cuccinelli big time.

TMac's lead is growing in Loudoun and Prince William...

I wonder if VA Beach is fully counted.  Cucinelli by 3 pts there.

Who wants to say Obershain makes it?


Yeah, there was never any doubt Sarvis voters leaned heavily right.

67.89% in

Cuccinelli: 47.52%
McAuliffe: 45.22%
Sarvis:       6.96%

R +2.3

McAuliffe has this.

As I noted before would probably happen, McAuliffe's margin is expanding in the northern counties, especially Fairfax.

Herring actually doing better than T-Mac in Loudoun and Prince William... um...

If the exit poll holds up (big if) Christie's margin of victory is going to be smaller than basically any of the public polls showed.

i got 70% in 48-45 race.

vote is good in loudoun, fairfax for dems. still not good in prince william county.

Connolly leads Walsh in Boston 52-48 with 17% reporting.

Falls Church is 100% and T-Mac's margin is 10 points more than Obama 2012's. Looking like the freak out earlier was unwarranted.

As he is statewide - because there's no third-party candidate to siphon votes in the AG's race.

The outlying vote is mostly urban. McAuliffe wins for sure, Obershain vs. Herring should be dead heat.

81/95 precincts reporting.

Keep in mind that he's the minority party.  Most undecided voters probably broke democratic today and in addition, some democrats in a blue state will always come home. I predicted he wouldn't hit 60%.  We'll see if I'm right.

Byrne 1,204
Young 1,197

Polls closing in NY soon.  I love to find out results of Westchester County Executive which was the key race I vote in today.  Given how bad we are at counting votes I doubt I will find out tonight the result.  Sigh.

No, his margin is better. Terry is +1% in Prince William right now, Herring is +4. In Loudoun, Herring is +7, T-Mac is +5.

McAuliffe is under performing Obama in Northern Virginia so far. Surprise?

RRH says Obenshain is running behind their benchmarks.

74.10% in

Cuccinelli: 47.35%
McAuliffe:  45.42%
Sarvis:        6.94%

R +1.93

Nah, the more Democratic parts of NoVA aren't in yet. Look at the counties that are almost or fully counted (Arlington, Falls Church): T-Mac is actually doing better than Obama 2012 in them.

That's probably true.

Obama won Fairfax Co. by 20, McAuliffe is leading Fairfax by 20. Obama won Loudoun by 4.5, McAuliffe is leading by 5.

Sarvis got 10% Henrico County

Congratulations, Mayor de Blasio!

NY Times calls the NYC Mayoral race for de Blasio.

Cooch leading by 22,000 with 80% in.

The Va Governor's race is now within 1%.

Mac going away now.

Dean Young 56%
Bradley Byrne 44%

14% in

Wow! If the NY Times Exit Poll holds up, de Blasio will not just crack 70% but smash it:

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/nyc-mayor/exit-polls.html

He probably will win Staten Island with those kinds of numbers.

Looking at some of the House precinct data, a lot of the outstanding areas are very Democratic.

With these numbers, will there be any Republicans in the City Council?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB1D9wWxd2w

Loudoun and Prince William have him less than Obama, but overall pretty close to Obama.

Obenshain up by 4 right now.

2064/2541 precincts have posted results in VA, current vote split 47-46-7 (Atlas colours)

Also, congratulations to Governor Christie on his re-election in NJ.

According to the NYT exit poll, Lhota´s doing best among the Jews :)

Damn, huge margin for de Blasio in NYC. ~50%. Very nice to see.

Dean Young starts up 51-49 with 21% in.

Well, I cannot say that Lhota losing was a shock :P.

Nothing or hardly anything in from Charlottesville or Fairfax City.

That AG race could be neck and neck.  Wow.

Dean Young up by 400 votes with 31% in.

On the Virginia elections website Cuccinelli´s lead is down to under 9 thousand votes.

de Blasio projected winner of the New York City mayoral race. No surprise here.

McAuliffe is about even now, Fairfax County is still 1/3 out.  Why aren't they calling this yet?

His margin (according to the exit poll) is actually pretty surprising though. Freakin' monstrous. Damn.

Because the numbers are still too close. They are very cautious and don't want to make a 2000-esque error.

Ratings boost?

85% in

Kooch +0.5
Obenshain +2.7

Looks like the difference between Kooch and Obenshain is shrinking.

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe separated by 0.51% now at 84.57% in.

A call may be imminent.

any interesting VA Assembly results?

Hearing scattered reports of de Blasio supporters rounding up Kulaks on Wall Street and executing them in the streets.

Maybe, but usually they like to brag about being the first to call a race... it seems safe to call this at this point.

What?

That A/G race is really something.  Wow.

Didn't realize the southeastern cities haven't really reported yet either.  They need to just call this.

McAuliffe only 0.4% apart from Cuccinelli... wow.

NYTimes site doesnt have it up, do you have a link

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

AL District 1 Runnoff

Bradley Byrne: 6,395
Dean Young: 6,691
Percent reporting: 47

http://www.fox10tv.com/web/fox10tv/news/local/baldwin-county/byrne-young-face-off-in-primary-runoff

McAuliffe might actually outperform Obama in Fairfax.  

Anyone have a precinct map of NYC?    

Coochy by 400 votes right now.

I apologize if this has already been posted, but here's the map of the VA race so far:

http://servweb.us/electionresults/

Fox just called it for McAuliffe.

Regardless, Cuccinelli is running 4 points behind Romney there.

I'm not going to bed until I see McAuliffe over the Kook. I know he will win, but I just want to have the image of another tea party hack being defeated before I go sleep... BTW, I think it's clear now Herring beats Obenshain, too :)

anyone know anything about the Detroit race?

Karl Rove won't like this.

Margin continues to grow in all of the NOVA counties.

Is Karl Rove on?

I like that.

Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.

Congrats, even though its not officially called, McAuliffe will be Virginia's next governor.

And that's that.

http://project.wnyc.org/election2013/

No results in yet.

Thank GOD.

Terrible news!

Though on the bright side Cuccinelli lost.

Id like to see another breakdown

Enough. Good night everybody...

Bradley Byrne ahead by a single vote with 42% in.

The CO GOP is near dead.  I'll continue to believe that until they win another big statewide race...last time being '04 when Bush beat Kerry by 4.7% points.

Hopefully Byrne will pull it out. Young will make just another nutcase in the massively damaged reputation of the US House of Representatives.

Still, this is a sign that the moderate/conservatives are alive and well in the state and they are willing to reject the liberal policies that their state government offers them.

hey that's really cool!

only I don't know why some of these maps are showing Cucc. winning Williamsburg by 1 vote. The SBOE has McAuliffe ahead 63-31-6.

YES!!!

Obenshain still up 51-48.9 with 90% reporting

Some votes beginning to come in NYC and NY (for the referenda).

My prediction is that Herring barely barely makes it. By about 0.2%.

Byrne up with 51%. Lets hope that holds.

Say what you want about the state GOP, but clearly conservatism in Colorado is quite alive. I'll happily take historic recalls and a major tax defeat for an increasingly unpopular liberal governor any election.

These networks are pathetic.  McAuliffe up 10,000 votes or so and almost all precincts left are in democratic areas and most STILL haven't called this.

I noticed that too. I don't know which to believe, since the ones showing Cooch winning have higher totals.

Christie hovering right at 60%

NBC CALLS IT FOR T-MAC

MSNBC calls for Terry

Let's go have the anchors waterboard the analysts and see if they change their minds.

Terry McAuliffe is officially the projected winner.

Finally!

It's funny to watch all the flip-flopping over the Virginia Governor's race. When Cuccinelli was ahead, Democrats were cautiously tweeting about the election not being a predictor of 2014 or a mandate on Obama's administration, while Republicans were saying it was a good sign for 2014 and evidence we were right on Obamacare and the shutdown. Now it seems both sides are saying the opposite of what they were saying an hour ago.

McAuliffe is ahead; it's over.

where's barfbag when we need him?

Amendment 66 in Colorado is down 65-35. Last I checked it was only narrowly passing in Denver County. That is pretty stunning stuff. This state is a real wildcard.

It aint over until the AP sings.

Governor Terry McAuliffe!!!
()

Big victory for rum and sodomy tonight. We'll see about the lash.

In other news, Bradley Byrne is narrowly leading Dean Young 51-49 with a little over half of the vote counted (AL-1 Primary). Lets hope it stays that way.

Obenshain´s lead on Virginia elections site is down to about 30 thousand votes. It is getting close.

It's over.

he's at home barfing into a bag.

Here's to 4 years of Governor McAwful!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9HUCAarSMg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9HUCAarSMg)

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)  49%
BRAMSON(D)   51%

6% reporting

Not that anyone cares about Houston municipal politics, but Annise Parker is looking to win a third (final) term without a runoff.

And Helena Brown, the fundamentalist Catholic Tea Party HP city councilwoman, will most likely be facing a run-off against Brenda Stardig, the "Mainstream Republican" who she defeated in 2011.

Walsh leads Connolly 51-48 right now with 90% reporting.

According to the Virginia State Board of Elections (http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY), with 2,311 out of 2,541 precincts reporting:

Governor:

Terry McAuliffe (D): 46.71%
Ken Cuccinelli (R): 46.31%
Robert Sarvis (Lib): 6.66%

Lt. Governor:

Ralph Northam (D): 54.41%
E. W. Jackson (R): 45.39%

Attorney General:

Mark Obenshain (R): 50.98%
Mark Herring (D): 48.90%

Looks like it will be McAuliffe by about 1%-2%.

AG not clear who will win.

Cuccinelli watch party attendees... #WhiteTears

()

Ok, it appears whoever or whatever is inputting the website applications mixed up the Gubernatorial vote by applying the Westmoreland Co. votes to Williamsburg.  SBOE is correct.

The AG's race is what's keeping me up right now.

Obenshain down to 50.8%.

I wonder if the AG race will have to be decided tomorrow.

Also, congratulations, Governor McAuliffe!

There are a lot of close (like 50-50) races in the Virginia House of Delegates right now. Dems could gain anywhere from like 0 to 10 seats at this point.

Minimum wage raise passes in NJ!

I wonder what the results in Virginia would look like if the 2 million 2012 voters who decided not to show up at the polls actually did.

93% in and its 51-49 Obershain. Holly crap.

Also, in New Jersey, voters have over-ridden Christie's veto of the minimum wage hike through Proposition 2.

http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=house (http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=house)

Look at that link, you can click on the seat and see the precinct maps. Thank you Miles!

Kind of ironic that Fox News called the race for McAuliffe before the "lamestream" networks. Where is Karl Rove and why isn't he demanding Megyn Kelly go find the people processing the returns to double-check?

Well least the folks in new jersey have a pay rise and it will go up based on living standards from now on. $8.25 is a joke still. can't raise kids with that kind of salary.

Westchester County executive

With 9% in it is

ASTORINO(R)  52
BRAMSON(D)   48

Since a lot of the district reporting are Dem strongholds (some of them R did not even put up a candidate for Co Legislator), it seems clear that Astorino will win and most likely a good margin.

VA AG 95% reporting

Obenshain 50.6%
Herring 49.3%

95% in

T-Mac +1.2
Obenshain +1.3

The 2.5% difference is holding. Gonna be a close one...

The AG race is razor thin...

Christie vetoed that and so supporters put it on the ballot and it wins by 20 points...It is interesting that many people who are voting for Christie disagree with him on this, abortion, SSM and likely other issues. Christie says voters don't vote on issues and maybe he is right.

Looks like Obenshain will win. There simply aren't enough outstanding votes to pull Herring over the line, it seems.

Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Holy sh*t. C'mon Obenshain!

I agree with this.  He looks to be the automatic GOP 2017 gubernatorial front-runner -if he maintains his lead.  

Looks like R are going to come through in VA AG.  

Portland Maine legalizes weed!

Not convinced the libertarian hurt Cuccinelli as much as the GOP is spinning, he did best among 18-29 year olds who otherwise were going strongly for McAuliffe...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/2013-elections/exit-polls/

My brother lives in Potland, might have to visit him. :P

Edit: that was a typo, but incredibly appropriate.

I think if Sarvis did not run the VA Gov race results would be similar to the AG result, close R victory.

We shouldn't say that just yet.

Chuck Todd just said that that Chris Christie turned down coming to Virginia to help campaign for Cuccinelli.

Just over 20 thousand vote lead for Obenshain (1.04%). He will, probably, win, but it is quite likely to get in a recount area. BTW, what are the recount rules in Virginia?

He deserves it, managing to win despite sharing a ticket with Rick Santorum and Uncle Ruckus.

97% in

Obenshain up 1%

Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

According to Chuck Todd Christe refused a request to campaign for Cuccinelli

I guess my argument for Sarvis hurting R is the following:  Places where Sarvis ran very strong (9%+) are all in places in Southern Virgina where Cuccinelli did very well and McAuliffe's margin of defeat was about the same as Obama.  Given what we know about the race we would expect  Cuccinelli's margin of victory to be greater than Romney especially when C Cuccinelli did better than Romney relative to Obama.  Ergo most likely Sarvis hurt R much more them D.

Wow, Chuck Todd just said Chris Christie refused to come campaign for Kooch.

This!!!!

So McAuliffe's won this... oh well, you win some and you lose some. In an alternate universe where VA Governors can hold consecutive terms, I don't think McDonnell would have done as well as Cuccinelli did.

Still, McAuliffe didn't do as well as I thought he would, my prediction was:

McAuliffe: 49%
Cuccinelli: 46%
Sarvis: 4%

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

A 3 point margin can still happen, almost all the outstanding votes are from democratic precincts.

Any link to what the questions where?

I voted for proposal 1.  I saw no reason to vote against it.  I think gambling should be legal everywhere.

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/ballot-measures/results.html

Results show Christie cracking 75% in Ocean County, NJ. Amazing.

Christie is leading in every county but Essex and Hudson.  Mercer and Middlesex are close and could flip.

One can assume that many Sarvis voters would have not bothered to vote.

Obenshain´s lead is down to about 18 thousand votes (just under 0.9%)

I really do not know who's gonna win this one.

I'm guessing the AG race will come down to a recount. Guess who'll be in charge of that? ::)

IIRC Obama gained a percentage point or so after election night last year. Am I remembering right? If so that bodes well for Herring.

Technically true, but if that is the lesson Republicans take away from this, they should be prepared to continue to lose voters to Democrats and third party candidates. 

Third parties will always be on the ballot, keeping members are their party from voting for third parties should be among the simplest of tasks for a campaign.  The fact that Cuccinelli let so many voters go to a random Libertarian shows that he as a candidate is fundamentally flawed.

Republicans are free to deny their candidate had any flaws and that it's all Sarvis' fault.  However, they should be prepared to keep losing elections.

Christie is wavering right around 60%, and Byrne has started to pull away. He leads Young by 5% now.

in other news Christie's hit the 60% mark.

The AG race is now at less than 1%, but it looks like Obenshain will sneak away with a victory.

Neck and neck indeed for the AG office.  My goodness

You make a very good point.  In fact this result shows the resiliency of the GOP brand.  To have a very flawed candidate after the whole shutdown fiasco and a third party candidate that took a bunch of votes away and still just lose by 1.5% or so is not that bad of a result.  But yes, if the GOP wants to win in Virgina they better come up with good candidates.

Does anyone know the recount laws for Virginia?

In other news, Mike Duggan is now projected to win the mayoral race in Detroit.  Going from a write-in candidate in the primary to mayor-elect is pretty amazing.  This makes him the first Caucasian to win that race in over 40 years.

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    54%
BRAMSON(D)     46%

with 24% of the vote counted.  I suspect it will be like this the rest of the night.  Astorino wins reelection.  

Don't most states generally only proceed to a recount if the margin is less than 0.5%? Usually if it's greater than that a candidate can request a recount but the campaign must pay for it, not the state.

Who has the NYC Mayoral results by borough?

Congrats Mayor Duggan!

Also I should congratulate Christie and De Blasio while I'm at it!

NYT has it by precinct: http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/nyc-mayor/map.html

In the NJ Governor's Race, theirs actually many areas left to count that are mostly from suburban and rural (high Christie numbers) so I do indeed think he will get above 60% at the end of the night.

Ugh, Republican attorneys general. Come on Herring...

Virginia result ought to be mildly troubling for both parties, I think. The reasons are obvious enough for the Republicans (yet another winnable race has been pissed away due to the nomination of a fruitcake. This has become a structural problem rather than an occasional embarrassment), but the narrow margin given that and the general bad publicity for the Republicans of late should concern Democrats with regards to next year (even if a certain degree of that can be put down to McAwful being McAwful).

With 98% in, Obenshain is leading 50.6-49.4. I can say now that I think Obenshain will narrowly squeak it out. Certainly something I was not expecting.

Texans are approving the creation of a state water fund by an overwhelming margin - 74% to 26% with 60% of precincts reporting - despite modest Tea Party opposition.

Harris County's bond proposal to renovate the Astrodome is failing so far with 53% voting against it.

Nassau County Executive
Mangano (R) 61%
Suozzi (D) 39%
with 23% in

Rockland County Executive
Day (R) 49.30%
Fried (D) 48.83%
with 28% in

That's basically right.  In Va there's no automatic recount.  A candidate can request a recount if the margin is 1% or less, once the election is certified (why they have to wait until then to do it, idk).  If it's less than 0.5% the campaign pays for it.

With just 38 precincts left, Obenshain´s lead is back over 1% (22 thousand or so). He wins.

That fact that McAuliffe almost blew it against Cuccinelli, even with the government shutdown fresh in people's minds cannot be a good sign for Democrats.

Dave Wasserman still thinks Herring could pull it out.

So what's going on with the Brooklyn DA?

DeBlasio cracks 70% already with 9% of precincts reporting, leading 72-25. No surprise there.

Well, McAuliffe is a really bad candidate as well. 

Yes. Thus only slightly ominous, rather than 'oh sh[inks]t'.

Thompson (D) is leading incumbent Hynes about 70-30 with 9% in.

This isn't a good sign for Herring

Both Astorino and Mangano will most likely run for statewide office in the future given their re-elections.  Especially Astorino to win in Westcheter back in 2009 was a shock.

Looks like Lhota is winning Staten Island lol.

Also de Blasio is apparently giving his entire speech in both English and Spanish rofl

99% in now and 50.4-49.6. Wow.

Maybe they can start up that secession movement again...

Republicans have long been, locally, the Staten Island Independence Party. Lhota should have given his concession in the Island dialect :)

I like how Republicans are already spinning Cuccinelli's loss.  The fact is this was an off-year election where democratic turnout is always lower.  If you look at McAuliffe and the down ballot candidate's margins in most of the key districts they are roughly the same as Obama's, the only different is turnout was slightly higher in republican areas in relative terms.

The results here are actually terrible news for Republicans... they're finding it harder and harder to win statewide office in Virginia even in off year elections.  

Also, you have to assume the democrats are going to nominate someone less awful for President in 2016, whereas the republicans will probably nominate someone equally as awful as Cuccinelli.

If you have two bad candidates, one of them still has to get more votes than the other.

The difference is that McAuliffe's negatives were more or less candidate-specific. He can't undo his sketchy past fundraising for the Clintons or his crony-capitalist stint building nonexistent electric cars. Cuccinelli's problems stem from what he did and does, not who he is. If he hadn't wasted taxpayer money throwing spears at windmills as AG and had run as a serious, mainstream candidate, he would have done better. He made a choice to offer something that voters simply did not want.

Dems pick up HD-02 in Virginia, leading 1.5% with 100% reporting.

On the current trends, the Republicans will be down to 2 seats in the City Council (both from the Island, of course).

Looks like Republicans finally offed Nelson Albano in NJ-01's Assembly race. No other turnovers yet, but Inverso-Greenstein is super close, as is everything in Dem-held NJ-38.

With just 26 precincts left, Obenshain is ahead by just over 15 thousand votes (0.75%). So, recount is not out of the question, at least.

Prop 1 and 5 still each winning by about 10%. Ugh.

They do seem to have a chance of making it three; district 48 is very close and they were leading earlier.

how come nobody is talking about the hideous creature running for Lt. Governor and his impact on the race?  Looks like less people voted for Lt. Governor than for Attorney General.

Bradley Byrne is the projected winner of the runoff for Alabama's 1st Congressional District. 53% of the vote vs. 47% with 91% reporting.

Who the f[inks] are these people wasting a Tuesday night cheering for Terry McAuliffe?!?

Yeah, those Russians. Still, even that would be a net loss of 25% of their current strength (on top of a recent defection, as it is).

Thank God.

looks like the exit polls show that the two biggest regional trends over 2009 were the far out DC suburbs moving further to the left and the southwestern part of the state moving further to the right.

Barbara Buono's super-Democratic Middlesex County open seat is still really close, too, 52-48, with 39% rptg

business contacts, obvi

Still 15,000+ absentee ballots in Fairfax to be counted...

T-Mac comparing himself to T-Jeff... Nice!

Obenshain's lead less than 13k

Currently five Republican delegates in Virginia leading with less than 51% of the vote. F[inks]ing gerrymanders.

Cuccinelli admits he was a crappy candidate: "This race came down to the wire because of ObamaCare".  A good candidate would've won without the factor of Obamacare.  And I don't think Obamacare had much of an effect on a state election.  Maybe a percentage point at most.

Jefferson County, Colorado's marquee swing county, has elected a conservative majority to the school board. Douglas County kept all four conservatives on their school board, a green light to the voucher program there. And Amendment 66 is losing 2:1. A great night for conservatives in Colorado.

Obenshain is winning by about 13,000 votes at this point. Herring would be justified in requesting a recount.

Though honestly, if there were a recount and Herring came out the winner, Republicans would be screaming bloody murder about Democrats stuffing ballot boxes despite the fact that the elections board is Republican-controlled. Virginia Republicans would spend the next 4 years bitching and moaning about how Mark Herring is not the "legitimate" AG and be demanding investigation after investigation into anything and everything he does.

So are any counties seceding?

20 precincts to go - and Obenshain lead is down to 12.5 thousand (0.59%). He will be ahead at the end of the night - but barely. Recount is quite likely.

Proposition 5's winning by just 8% now. Maybe there's hope.

Link?

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/nyc-mayor/map.html

De Blasio's closed the gap a bit since I posted that though.

South Windsor became the first municipality in Connecticut to elect a Muslim mayor.

Awesome! :D

A few, but not enough to get it off the ground. The movement in terms of secession is toast.

it says 20 precincts left but when you look at the counties they are almost all reported.  I don't see any counties with a lot of precincts left.  I think that might be an error.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/NY_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

54%-44% Lhota with about 24% in.

14 precincts left. The Obenshain lead is now just under 12 thousand votes (0.56%).

And he's an actual Muslim, not one of those bean pie-eating racist blacks.

It was a major issue in the campaign and in the news.  I think it mattered a great deal to the election, though not as much as it did 4 years ago.

Actually, the detailed data shows quite a few precincts left (more than the 14 now on the aggregate score). But most of those are in Obenshain counties (including 5 in Craig).

District 48 is still tight, but the margin is up a tad: D 47.7, R 43.8. 21% in.

District 32 is also close: D 51.9, R 48.1 (40% in).

But that's it for contests. A couple where the leading candidate is under 60% though:

District 19 is D 56.8, R 43.2, and district 30 is D 56.1, R 43.9.

Obenshain's lead down to one thousand votes!

I do not know what happened, but Washington Post website is showing Obenshain lead down to just 1357 votes - basically down to nothing. This is incredible!

NY don't trust very olds to be judges (prop 6) :(

And on the Virginia election website the lead is down to 7,007 votes (0.33%). With 12 precincts left.

Most of what is left, though, is Obenshain country.

The VA AG race could actually end up a tie lol.

SBOE has it at 12K now.

Obenshain: 1,089,668 (50.0%)
Herring: 1,088,311 (50.0%)

:o

7,000! they have just updated.

Lhota's lead on the Island is crashing. Down to 5% now, de Blasio may have a shot.

Dems held all 24 of their seats in the New Jersey State Senate, GOP held their 16. No change.

How is the legislature in Virginia now?

Dems gain net of one seat in Virginia House, it seems.

According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

Update: now it is 1,403

How are they higher in the vote total than SBOE? 

The SBOE is always behind.

On the bright side for republicans, they can take decent shots and possibly defeat incumbent Terry McAuliffe in 2017 if they're smart enough to nominate the right candidate by then.

A great gerrymander... really its pretty amazing.

um, according to the Washington post site, most of the outstanding vote is in democratic counties.

Don't forget that you can only run for one term in Virginia.

Oh, yeah.... oops. :(

I thought McAuliffe could not run for reelection anyway.

Virginia is ridiculously gerrymandered.  Most of the democrats won with over 70% of the vote or were unopposed.  Most of the republicans won with 51-55% of the vote, even in areas that are democratic overall like NOVA.

I count +3 in the House of Delegates, assuming current results hold:

HD-02 (51-49, 95% reporting)
HD-31 (51-49, 100% reporting)
HD-86 (51-49, 100% reporting)
HD-93 (52-48, 92% reporting)

Minus an uncontested Republican pickup.

And even if they didn't have term limits there, the Democrats would quietly find a better replacement like they did with John Hickenlooper in CO in 2010.

Republicans could learn from the Democrats and be willing to throw bad candidates overboard when the situation calls for it.

AP projects that the NY Casino Gambling referendum will pass.  It's up 56%-44%.

then who do the news sources get their numbers from?

The Associated Press gets their information from the various boards of elections.  There is a discrepancy between the state BoE site and the AP results.  There has been all night.

Prop 5 still leading 53.3-46.7 :(

wow margin is like 800 votes now.

It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  :)

where are the remaining precincts?  anyone know?

928 vote margin, according to WP. Hilarious!

De Blasio won my precinct with 90.2%. ;D

99.8% Reporting...

What's left?

- Prince William County (1.3% left) (D)
- Rockingham County (3.3% left) (R)
- Rockbridge County (5.6% left) (R)
- Bedford County (3.1% left) (R)
- Mecklenburg County (4.2% left) (R)

Now don't let this fool you, Prince William County has more population than all of these counties by far, but still looks like 50/50 vote left, not necessarily democrat territory.

Dude... gross.

$15 minimum wage in SeaTac is currently passing.

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/11/05/seatac-voters-will-decide-on-15-an-hour-minimum-wage/ (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2013/11/05/seatac-voters-will-decide-on-15-an-hour-minimum-wage/)

I don't see how spitting in the face of "forever wild" deserves a smiley face here.

there is obviously going to be a recount.  

didn't someone say there were also like 10,000 absentee ballots from Fairfax or some other big county?

There will be more land put into the reserve than taken out.  Everybody wins.

I am pretty sure the recent tally changes by AP come from all sort of adjustments/corrections. Too few precincts left, and they are still changing. This is a recount.

Not all remaining precincts are in Democratic territory.  By county they are in (from relative R to D):

Rockingham
Bedford 
Mecklenberg
Roanoke
Prince Wiliam
Norfolk (2)

No, it's the principle of the thing.  "Forever wild" means "forever wild"- and the Adirondacks were very specifically and purposefully created to be forever wild.  You don't f[inks] with that, if words have meaning.

Also, I'll trust the mining company's promise about as far as I can throw it.

All right, could somebody fill me in on what Prop 5 is?

788 votes.

The prince William precincts will probably be the largest and the late reporting ones will all be in the more "urban" areas so they will be a big boost to the D depending how many.  The others will all probably go R except maybe Norfolk depending where it is.

We vote on land swaps in the Adirondacks all the time.  Every time, at least as much new land is put into the reserve as is taken out.  People live in the Adirondacks.  They need to be able to make a living.

Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

I'm fairly sure that would be illegal (the mining company backing out on its obligation, that is).

is Newport News all in?

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/New_York_Land_Swap_With_NYCO_Minerals_Amendment,_Proposal_5_(2013)

Yes, they are working on a joint statement with Barfbag to cover all angles of wrongness regarding the election predictions here.

()

Going to the 51st state initiative, counties in green voted to secede, counties in red voted to stay with Colorado.

Well, here's a bit of good news:

With 66% of the vote in, Ken Thompson is rolling, 71.7%-28.3% over Hynes, and is the projected winner.

Looks like all my worry was unwarranted.  Whew!

Say, does anyone know if the "soda tax" (which would tax orange juice but not Diet Pepsi) passed in Telluride CO?

For the two precincts that appear to be outstanding in Norfolk: Suburban Park is upper middle class, I'd guess lean Democrat.  Coleman Place is majority black,  probably at least 2/3 Democrat.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the natural reaction to not getting the girl.

then the D is going to gain a significant amount more votes than the R will.  I also thought I saw that part of Newport News was outstanding.  Those will also go D if that's the case.  I think the D can gain 1000 votes in those precincts + PW.  Will probably come down to the R precincts elsewhere.

The green counties have a combined population of less than 30,000 people. How will they justify splitting off?

Also, in the unlikely event that they do secede, CO-4's current representative, Cory Gardner, will have to either retire or move, as he lives in one of those green counties (Yuma County, to be exact).

Speaking of not getting the girl, where is Barfbag, did he just not show up for Prom tonight?

I think he's recovering from the losses.

No, I think NN is all in now.  VPAP has precinct maps btw: www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/nov_2013?race=attgen

In any case, considering the provisional and absentee ballots and a likely recount, we may not know the winner of the AG race this month.

He had to know this was coming... I mean every single poll showed McAuliffe up. 

Damn, Virginia's AG race is really close. When do y'all think it will finally be called?

That link is pretty cool, thanks.  I think NN still has absentee ballots left, a lot of other counties have factored them in already, looks like Fairfax has already.  This is definitely going to a recount, but I think if they count the absentee votes tonight the D will actually take the lead prior to the recount.

In a month.

I think it's not gonna get called anytime soon and will go into a long drawn out recount.  Unless we don't know about thousands of absentee votes, etc.

Detroit has its first white mayor in forty years.

I just looked at that Norfolk map, the democrat will net about 1000 votes out of Norfolk.  This election is going to be dead even probably.

No-one should be surprised at the lack of change in either the NJ or VA assembly. Coattails are overrated. Both the NJ and VA races were a lot more to do with the candidates than the parties, so it's not surprising there were no waves downballot.

I have no direct evidence of this, but I have to think Virginia was severely gerrymandered as well...

I get that the democratic vote is more concentrated... however, when almost all the Republicans win by 4-8 point margins and almost all the democrats win by 50 point margins, you know whassup.

De Blasio is winning NYC 73%-24%.  But Lhota is winning Staten Island 54%-44% with 97% in.

there are cornfields in State Island.

lol. Oh well.

How humiliating for Staten Island. But it's really Staten Island that's held the city back for the past 20 years.

Kind of like how Grants Lick is holding Campbell County back.

Lief will be happy to learn that the AP has projected NY Referendum 5 - the land swap for mining in the Adirondacks - has passed.  The 53%-47% margin is holding.

According to:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Obenshain (R) lead now stands at 820, but ~600 of that lead appears to be from a reporting error in Sugarland South precinct, Loudoun County

?? What??? It's only a 200 vote race now??

Oh wow, just reading all the results - Cuccinelli came painfully close. :(

Per AP:
1,097,259  Obenshain (GOP)
1,097,106  Herring (Dem)
 
2536/2541 Precincts

Obershain +153

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/VA_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Looks like it will be a few days.... goodnight everybody.

Hold on....

It looks like for the first time tonight, Mark Herring has stepped in front of Mark Obenshain just barely. Looks like the final precinct of Newport News came in. There are still some outstanding precincts in the middle of the state so don't go into victory mode or anything.

Herring ahead by 616 votes according to AP. Obenshain is still ahead according to the board of elections, though (by some 7,500 votes).

Whatever.

The union bosses and ACORN leaders who are stuffing ballot boxes in a back room at CNBC headquarters.

There are still 3 Republicans in the NY City Council. In addition to the two Islanders, Ulrich survived in Queens. So, only one pick-up for the Dems. Still, 48:3 is a decent performance for them :)

I remember staying up until 5 AM to see if Heidi Heitkamp, Shelley Berkley, and Jon Tester were going to win. I'm not nearly as invested in Herring vs. Obenshain, yet I'm still awake for some reason.

Hey traininthedistance - congrats on Ken Thompson :D

Kick 'em out, declare them a territory and take away their farm subsidies.

Herring: 1,098,388
Obenshain: 1,097,772

Difference: 616

Still 4 precincts outstanding 

Kind of gets back at the GOP for that Wisconsin Supreme Court "election" they rigged a couple years ago. Anyone else remember that?

How do we know how many absentee/provisional ballots are left for the VA House races?

Yeah, this one won't be decided until December.

I did a little math and if those precincts get around a 40% turnout, it should get Obenshain between 100 to 700 votes.

If there is a runoff it will become a magnet for both sides in Washington.

Hey, we agree on something.

Time to check in for a post:

The results are about as expected, but T-Mac's victory was quite close. Closer than the polls said.

Interesting how low turnout was, especially in New York City - where just 20% voted.

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    55%
BRAMSON(D)     45%

with 81% of Districts reporting.  So Bramson's attempt to nationalize the race by linking Astorino to the Tea Party failed although he did reduce the margin of victory for Astorino from 2009 when Astorino won with 57% of the vote.

As usual Westchester county is the slowest vote counting region in all of USA.  11 hours after the polls closed they only have results from 81% of the district.  This is really sad.

Now that Astorino has won the main focus will be on the Westchester County Council where the Dems had a 10-7 edge over the GOP.  The main goal of the GOP is to avoid losing 2 seats and stop the Dems from getting a veto-overriding majority.  Right now it is 9-6 for Dems with 2 seats neck-to-neck.  So it will end up being R+1, D+1, or flat.  I suspect it will end up being flat.  Also since 2 Dems on the Council often votes with the GOP the GOP had a de facto 9-8 majority on many issues including the budget.  So it is also important for the GOP not to lose any seats. 

The partisan breakdown in Westchster can be see in the vote for Family Court Judge where all parities (GOP, Dem, Working Families, Conservative, and Independent) endorsed the same candidate.  The vote by party line is instructive on the partisan breakdown of the electorate (62% Dem, 28% GOP, 5% Conservative, 2% Working Families, 2% Independent.)   This is a far cry from the 1950s when Westchester was a GOP bastion.  Of course the GOP does much better than these numbers suggest mainly because of the property tax issue and the Federal Government Fair housing issue where the Obama regime is trying to push for zoning laws to allow for low income housing.  When low income housing is mentioned is when the upper middle-class white liberal progressive fascade comes off and they vote for GOP block such changes.  You see, it is fine for my progressive neighbors to talk about how liberal progressive and open-minded they are.  But when it comes to real low-income minorities living in the same neighbhoods and going to the same schools is when all of that bunk comes crashing down. 

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.

Attorney General

2539/2541

M. Obenshain (R) 1,098,948
M. Herring (D) 1,098,895

Obenshain + 53 votes!!!!

One more in...

Precincts in: 2,540/2,541

Mark Obenshain (R) - 1,099,198 votes
Mark Herring (D) - 1,099, 054 votes

Obenshain +144

Looks like this will come down to the very last precinct.

What happens if there's a vote tie ?

Is a lot drawn ?

It looks like Prince Williams County is the last county to have a precinct out! 

Well there will still be some absentee and provisional votes that will be added, as someone mentioned upthread, Obama's margin grew by about 1% after election day.

Based on where it is on the map it could be a Republican area though :(

Uh oh!  Link? 

The last precinct is in mecklenburg county and that precinct voted >60% Republican in 2012. Herring has to win the vote by mail / provisional vote. Either way there will still be a recount.

So absentees and a recount. Dun dun duuuuun.

Huffington Post has these numbers with all precincts in:

Mark Obenshain  1,099,412
Mark Herring  1,099,126

That is a lead of 286 votes.

If there are provisional votes to be counted, they almost always lean D.  If there are absentee ballots, I'd guess they would be a wash.

The Virginia board of elections has it at

1,099,302 Obenshain
1, 098,984 Herring

A margin of 314 votes

So, what do you expect with absentees? How many voted would Herring/Obenshain get?

In Virginia, historically absentees skew towards metropolitan areas and especially towards NoVA.  They've almost always benefited the Dems as votes are finalized.  Now I don't know if the BoEs have gotten more efficient at processing absentees.  I doubt it.  I wouldn't be surprised if there are still 15,000 votes or more to processed.

So, bad news for Obenshain?

The absentees have been counted already, no? It's just provisionals we're waiting for.

Absentees can be received through election day.  Some counties can count everything election night, bigger counties tend to add some absentees later. 

Though district 48 turned out to be not close at all in the end: D 55.1, R 39.1. You Russians are crazy.

Anyone have final Nassau County (NY) results including the County Legislature?

Interesting that VA polling was 4.2% too D in 2013 and 4.1% too D in 2009.  I think this was more a matter of public pollsters failing to account for how skewed odd-year vs. presidential turnout is than anything about McAuliffe, Cuccinelli or Obama. 

Also I'm curious as to whether McAuliffe carried any of the 8 R-held congressional districts?  Based on the map I think only CD-10 would be in doubt.

Yet pollsters got the Lt. Gov and AG races more or less correct. Probably a "shy tory" effect for Kooch.

Good point.  Northam still getting his 10 point win and Herring still getting a tie suggests something personal about McAuliffe.  Maybe the Ewww factor was more even than we realized.  This is also the first election where NOVA truly swung everything.  Cuccinelli wins without Fairfax.

You'll notice from my posting history I was actively following this thread. Don't flatter yourself.

I've noticed in other threads, you respond/bump older posts of mine when returning from one of your extended periods away from this place. ;)

Kooch has not called T-Mac and has no plans to do so. The poor guy must be too busy crying that he won't get to oppress women for the next four years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/terry-mcauliffe-elected-governor-of-virginia-after-bitter-race-against-ken-cuccinelli/2013/11/06/6d8a8c9a-46b0-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story.html?hpid=z1

Good to know that Kookinelli on a scale of douchbaggery reaches the lofty heights of Marilyn Musgrave.

Sheesh. A few more missteps and Terry might start to sweat. Cuccinelli would be closing in on him in yet another contest!

http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/boe/results.html

With all but one precinct in:

County Executive
Mangano (R) 58.7%
Suozzi (D) 41.0%

District Attorney
Rice (D) 58.7%
Sturim (R) 41.3%

Comptroller
Maragos (R) 52.6%
Weitzman (D) 47.4%

County Clerk
O'Connell (R) 56.9%
Gillen (D) 43.1%

By my tally, Republicans retain control of the Nassau County Legislature, 10-8-1, with the 1 being a cross-endorsed Democrat who caucuses with Republicans.

Yes yes, how dare those conservative white trash country yokels actually get good job opportunities. Whenever these sorts of environmental issues crop up it's a nice reminder that many liberals and leftists don't actually care about working people.

Anyway, the results were pretty predictable. I was actually a bit surprised that Christie broke 60, and VERY surprised at how big the swing was in Hudson County!

The lack of change in the legislature is disappointing but hey, 2 more assembly seats are better than none, and there were actually several seats in both chambers (3 Senate seats in particular) that had very close margins. So despite some pretty efficient gerrymandering, I'd say NJ isn't at, say, VA levels of locked-in seats.

How dumb of him. All it's going to do is make him look bad. I doubt McAuliffe is kept up at night because Cooch never personally conceded to him.

Absentees from most counties are included in the State Board of Elections tally.  Best I can tell, the only ones that the spreadsheet doesn't show a central absentee precinct for is Buena Vista City (R-leaning), Craig County (R-leaning), Norton City (R-leaning, but it only has 1 precinct, so absentees could have been folded in) and Sussex County (D-leaning) - though I might have missed a few counties.

Some provisionals are included in the State BoE tally.  We're generally talking about single-digit votes in the counties where they are in, though.  So I wouldn't expect much from them.

When I downloaded the spreadsheet to do the analysis about a half hour ago, the State BoE tally was:
Obenshain 1,101,029   
Herring 1,099,900   
Write-in 4704
So Obenshain + 1,129 -  a margin thinner than the write-ins.

It has since gone up to
Obershain 1,101,073   
Herring 1,099,904   
Write-in 4,920
Or Obershain +1,169

They're only a bump to the rest of you when I return from a sojourn in the real world; they're fresh and pithy responses from my perspective. :P

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

:o

Just :o

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.

A 32 vote lead, you can't make this up!

At this point, I'm REALLY glad that I voted.

Bull.  Those "good job opportunities" are inevitably far fewer, and far worse, than promised, and then when the mining company leaves (as it inevitably will, eventually), the people there will be worse off than before.

Hitching your star to resource extraction* is one of the worst economic development strategies there is.  I mean, I recognize that it is inevitably not seen that way (for various reasons) by most people living in those areas; and I do recognize that it's also not the sort of activity we can afford to eliminate entirely.  But we do need to reserve the ability to proscribe it from areas where it's particularly inappropriate (of which the Adirondacks happen to be such an area), and to have regulations with teeth that ensure proper mitigation.  

And it is definitely the case that, although rural development is a tricky thing, seeing through the false promise of "mining jobs" and understanding that there is a counterbalancing greater good to keep in mind should not and cannot be misconstrued as "not caring about working people".

*Mining in particular.  Forestry and fishery have their own sets of issues, but as a rule are much less destructive, or at least can be if done in a halfway-responsible manner.

I'm sure everyone who did a write in is regretting they didn't.

So with this current 32 vote lead:

Mark Herring (Democrat):         49.888%
Mark Obenshain (Republican): 49.887%
Write-in:                                   0.225%

I don't think anyone is screwed.  The most recent changes came from canvassing errors.  There could be more of them in either candidate's favor.  Canvassing errors tend to be random and don't help or harm any particular party.

Most, if not all absentees are in.  A few counties/cities have returns that don't include a central absentee precinct - but it's not clear if they have to have one.  The jurisdictions that don't have a listed central absentee precinct tend to favor Obenshain.  The provisional votes that have been counted in some counties are few - we're talking single digit total votes.  There might not be many provisional ballots to be counted.

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.

There will be more tabulation errors.  There always are tabulation errors in the preliminary tally.  Normally, we don't notice because the margin isn't razor-thin.

There's a theory (probably correct) on Red Racing Horses that the flip itself was caused by a data entry error.  The precinct in Prince William that changed most in the recanvassing was 306 - Washington-Reid.  It went from 636-758-3 (R-D-Write-in) to 636-1517-3 - an increase of 759 votes for Herring, which is coincidentally one more vote than he received in the pre-recanvass tally.  McAulliffe is listed as winning that precinct 745-609-55-1.  And Obama only won Washington-Reid by 99 votes, 976-877.  I doubt Herring did that much better than Obama or outpolled McAuliffe by 700.

 

Normally I'd say tabulation errors can benefit either candidate equally, but that's a very specific example that should cheer VA Republicans. Good show, Cinyc!

...and the Prince William County tabulation error has been fixed on the Virginia State Board of Elections' website.  Obenshain is now ahead by 726:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,072   49.87%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,205,843   

Obenshain lead decreased from 726 to 679.

What about the legislatures?  From what I could count, the  NJ Senate remains 24D - 16R.  I counted two Rep gains in the Assembly for a 46D - 34R split.

In Virginia, the Senate (of course) remained 20 - 20 with a shift in majority party due to the change in party of the Lt Gov.  I counted a two seat D gain in the House (many near misses), but apparently a one seat D loss in an uncontested district (go figure that one).  I infer that the new House of Delegates will be 67R - 33D.

Please correct as needed.

When it's that close, there is no way that the results are "legit".  You can't trust officials in this country.  That's what is very scary.

As for Nassau County (my home), the GOP cleaned up here last night.

Obenshain leading by about 500 votes.

The swing map for the southwest:

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This razor-thin AG race brings to mind the US Senate race in New Hampshire in 1974 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_1974).

Louis Wyman (R) -- 110,926 -- 49.662%
John A. Durkin (D) -- 110,924 -- 49.661%

They ended up holding another election in the summer of 1975, which Durkin won by over 10 points.

Hey Miles, could you check results/swing for VA-10 (the westernmost NOVA seat)?  It looks like McAuliffe did much better than Obama there and the winner may be in doubt.

Yeah, I'll do that next.

Westchester County is finally done 40 hours after the polls closed.  For County Executive it is

ROB ASTORINO(R)   56%
NOAM BRAMSON(D) 44%

This is almost the same as 2009 when Astorino won 57% of the vote in a surprise victory.  It seems the property tax and low-income housing issues still has legs here in Westchester.  Looking at the ads it is also clear Astorino clearly outspent Bramson by a wide margin.  I am pretty sure Astorino will run for NY governor 2018.

The Vote for Family Court Judge is in useful as all parties nominated the same person but looking at the line people voted for this unanimous candidate gives us a good idea the partisan breakdown of voters that turned out.

DEM                   53%
GOP                   35%
Conservative        7%
Working Families  3%
Independent        3%

So Right/Left split is around 42/56.

There are no turnover for County Legislature as the Dems successfully defended two open seats and GOP beat back Dem attempts to capture two vulnerable GOP incumbents.   So in the end it will stay 10-7 for the Dems.  With the same 2 Dem legislators voting with the GOP on budget issues being reelected without GOP competition, this means Astorino will not face a Dem veto-proof majority and in fact will have a de facto 9-8 majority as it continues to face off with the Obama regime over the low-income fair housing battles.

I want to go back and double check this because they renamed a few precincts in Prince William County, but it looks like Cooch won CD10 by about 2,000 votes.

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Wow, that was fast.  :D  Thanks Miles! 

vpap.org on twitter (https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/statuses/398463499841458177) claims that there are 3,100 provisional ballots outstanding in Virginia: 293 no ID; 723 not registered and 2,084 requested absentee ballot or already marked as having voted.

Of course, not all provisional ballots will be counted.  In 2009, there were only 739 provisional ballots counted across the entire state (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statuses/398532976167772160).  They broke 389-350 for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, McDonnell - about 6 points less Republican than the overall statewide tally.

Thanks!  Wow, it's right in line with 50/49 Romney in 2012.  The western areas look to have really saved Cuccinelli from the Fairfax swing.  The other interesting one would be VA-02, which Obama narrowly won last year.  It looks on par with 2012, but with the suburbs swinging D while downtown turnouts dropped.  Could you do that one when you get the chance?

CD2 was mirror image of CD10; McAuliffe won by about 2K votes:

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So both of the competitive CDs look just like 2012.  Very fascinating.  This means they both moved left relative to the state.  It also looks like a pretty sure thing that McAuliffe did better than Obama % wise in VA-08.  So it will be very interesting to see where Cuccinelli did a lot better than Romney to offset that and create a tighter statewide race.  My guess is that Cuccinelli overperformed most in VA-09, VA-04 and VA-03.  VA-05 is a mixed bag because the Charlottesville area was a lot more D than in 2012.

New Virginia State BoE totals:

Obenshain   1,101,317   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,540   49.87%   
Write-in   4,982   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,839   

Obenshain + 777

And according to Dave Wasserman, 3,000 absentee ballots might be missing from the most Democratic House district in Fairfax. (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398635347430494208) An official in Fairfax County also says he's convinced there's an issue. (https://twitter.com/BrianSchoeneman/status/398664698008440832)

This would probably put Herring over the top for good!

Except there still will be a recount, right?

There will be a recount, fighting, grandstanding, lawsuits, whining, you can expect it all.

Well, sure, but they have to actually find those ballots first...

New numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections' website:   

Obenshain   1,102,039   49.92%   
Herring   1,100,767   49.86%   
Write-in   4,994   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,207,800

Obenshain +1,272

This was largely due to a missing precinct in Bedford County.  The supposedly missing Fairfax absentees are not reflected yet.  Those should give Herring the lead if/when included.

The VA AG race is starting to remind me of Franken v Coleman for MN Senate 2008...which dragged on for months.

Soon they will be disputed ballots like this one from that race
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So if there are really 3,000 missing absentee ballots from Fairfax County, Herring needs to win them by about 70 to 30% in order to make up the 1200 vote deficit  (2,100 to 900).  I don't see that happening. 

Barring another significant error, looks like Obenshain is the next VA AG to me.

Judging from the precincts these supposed absentees come from, I've seen people suggesting they could break 65-35, 70-30, or even 75-25. And it's still possible random revisions and errors could happen which help or hurt either candidate. This will probably go down to the wire.

Of course, this assumes that these absentees actually exist. So far they're still hypothetical.

According to the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/nearly-2000-votes-in-fairfax-possibly-uncounted/2013/11/08/d1c163f4-48aa-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story.html), there are 1,951 unrecorded votes in Fairfax County's Mason district voting center. 

If those are all the missing absentees and there are no other changes, Herring would need to win about 82.5% of them to erase Obenshain's 1,272 vote lead.  The CD-8 absentees that are in so far are 73.5% Herring.

According to the Fairfax County Electoral Board (http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/news/2013/electoral-board-statement-election-nov-8-2013.htm), there's an open meeting tomorrow at 10AM to present the results of the absentee ballot investigation, and a meeting on the county's provisional ballots starting at 2PM.  They expect concluding the overall canvass on Sunday.

The second is in doubt.  My numbers have a 47%-47% tie with Cooch ahead by about 100 votes.

Obenshain now has a 130 vote lead after the absentees were counted. But provisionals have yet to be counted. Dave Wasserman says Herring could net 122 votes from provisionals: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398944289922617344

Let the litigating begin.

Unofficially via Twitter (https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398943878293630977), the good news for Herring, there were 3,008 missing absentees found in Fairfax County.  The bad news is that they only broke 68.8% for Herring, so he's still behind by 120 or 130 after another 10 votes were found for him in the unofficial Fairfax recanvass.

It will come down to the provisional ballots and any additional mistallies.

I am rooting for an exact tie!

Especially if the tiebreaker is a steel cage match.

The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

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Wow.  The more I think about this election, the more it suggests to me that Obama actually overperformed generic progressive D in rural areas and that there is still ground for Democrats to gain in wealthy suburbs.  The populist anti-Romney rhetoric probably did sway things at both sides of the spectrum.  If 2016 is suburban D vs. Tea Party R, I would expect the polarization to increase further (maybe 70%D in Fairfax and  70% R in WV?). 

Virginia Beach/Hampton. I would have included Suffolk, but it had too many precinct shape changes that I didn't want to deal with.

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