Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2013, 12:03:02 pm



Title: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2013, 12:03:02 pm
6 of them were conducted for "Americans United for Change", while the SD poll as done for "People for Weiland".

AR:

Mark Pryor ...................................................... 44%
Tom Cotton ..................................................... 41%

GA:

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 42%
Republican opponent ...................................... 42%

IA:

Bruce Braley ................................................... 45%
Republican opponent ...................................... 41%

LA:

Mary Landrieu................................................. 48%
Bill Cassidy ..................................................... 41%

MI:

Gary Peters..................................................... 43%
Terri Lynn Land ............................................... 36%

NC:

Kay Hagan...................................................... 47%
Republican opponent ...................................... 42%

All of these polls were conducted among registered voters on October 14th and 15th on
behalf of Americans United for Change. 955 were interviewed in Arkansas with a margin
error of +/-3.2%. 707 were interviewed in Georgia with a margin error of +/-3.7%. 634
were interviewed in Iowa with a margin error of +/-3.9%. 632 were interviewed in
Louisiana with a margin error of +/-3.9%. 642 were interviewed in Michigan with a
margin error of +/-3.9%. 837 were interviewed in North Carolina with a margin error of
+/-3.4%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf

SD:

Mike Rounds................................................... 40%
Rick Weiland................................................... 34%
Kurt Evans ...................................................... 11%

PPP surveyed 882 South Dakota voters from October 10th-13th on behalf of People for Weiland. The margin of error is +/-3.3%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_SD_1016.pdf


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 16, 2013, 12:14:06 pm
As usual Generic Republican represents the best case for Republicans.

Also, why Rounds's numbers are so soft? I thought he was almost as popular as Hoeven.
And before anyone says anything about PPP, this isn't the first poll that shows him with rather underwhelming support and his camp hasn't published any of their own numbers to refute them.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 16, 2013, 12:14:20 pm
Jesus Christ. Even in a poll called "People for Weiland," there is no reason Rounds should be up by SIX POINTS. Also, why is the libertarian getting 11%? The rest of these are unsurprising. Since Generic R/D generally outperforms the names of specific candidates, Nunn is probably up on Gingrey/Kingston/Handel/Broun by 3 or 4, especially since the word "Republican opponent" is viewed favorably in Georgia, more so than either of those four names for sure.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 16, 2013, 12:16:26 pm
Also, why the HELL did they not poll Montana? I think that most of us would have liked to have seen that over any of these races aside from maybe Arkansas.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Marxist-Cornpopist Thought on October 16, 2013, 12:23:57 pm
Also, why the HELL did they not poll Montana? I think that most of us would have liked to have seen that over any of these races aside from maybe Arkansas.

Daines hasn't formally declared yet.

Rapid reactions:
  • There's good news in AR for Republicans - although Pryor is leading, the shutdown doesn't seem to be affecting Cotton that much at all. His background and his conservatism seem to be propping him up despite what he's done.
  • If you're GOP and in Georgia, you better be praying for Handel at this point. She's the only candidate who's conservative enough to win but not be crazy, and she's distanced from the insanity of Congress. If opinion holds and Broun or Gingrey get the nom, Nunn has a strong chance because of her last name.
  • All quiet in IA - Republicans still have a lot of ground to make up here.
  • Still good news in LA for the GOP - voters are still less likely to vote for Landrieu over the shutdown, and even though she breaks 50%, that'll come down
  • A real poll for MI where Peters stomps Land as I thought. Not a close race at all.
  • NC seems to still Lean D because of Hagan, but voters are still less likely to support her because of the shutdown too. If the right Republican gets nominated, then they can hold this seat.
  • I highly doubt that a popular former Governor is only up by six on an unknown, and the fact that the libertarian broke double digits right away makes me wonder. Although it's by one of the most accurate pollsters, even I think this is too optimistic.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 16, 2013, 12:25:42 pm
Also, here are the results after the voters are told that the Republican candidate supported or the Democratic candidate opposed the shutdown:

Mark Pryor ...................................................... 45%
Tom Cotton ..................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%      Pryor +3 ---> Pryor +3: NO CHANGE
 
Michelle Nunn ................................................. 48%
Republican opponent ...................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%       Tie ---> Nunn + 6

Bruce Braley ................................................... 46%
Republican opponent ...................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%        Braley +4 ---> Braley +7

Mary Landrieu.................................................52%
Bill Cassidy ..................................................... 42%
Not sure.......................................................... 6%            Landrieu +7 ---> Landrieu +10

Gary Peters..................................................... 50%
Terri Lynn Land ............................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%         Peters +7 ---> Peters + 14

Kay Hagan ...................................................... 49%
Republican opponent ...................................... 41%
Notsure.......................................................... 9%             Hagan +5 ---> Hagan +8


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 16, 2013, 12:34:47 pm

Arkansas's really jumped the shark.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Senator Scott🦋 on October 16, 2013, 12:41:02 pm

Yup.  Arkansas just ain't Arkansas anymore.  It will be another Kansas or Oklahoma until Obama's out of office.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 16, 2013, 12:41:09 pm
I would be really surprised at this point if Pryor is able to hang on.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: RogueBeaver on October 16, 2013, 12:47:39 pm
I'm in agreement with Sawx, except GA in any scenario where the 2 crazies aren't nominated.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 16, 2013, 01:18:10 pm
Well,
Pryor up by 3 points: good news. If he manages to avoid a nationalization of this race, Cotton would lose because of his vote on farm bills and student loans. But if Cottons manages to nationalize this race, he's toast.
It's a pure toss up I guess, but I continue to believe Pryor is slighty a favorite.

For the other races: not a surprise, except for South Dakota where I don't understand, Round is a popular governor: Likely Rep, he should lead by a 10-15 points margin!


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Mehmentum on October 16, 2013, 02:10:58 pm
I'm ignoring that SD poll,  its obviously biased.  Otherwise things look pretty good for Democrats, though I'm very worried about AR.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 16, 2013, 04:04:21 pm
Don't worry guys, the NRSC has come to the rescue and unskewed these polls for us. It turns out they're actually GREAT news for Republicans.

http://www.nrsc.org/blog/ppp-shows-gop-strength-in-senate-but-still-hasnt-learned-their-lesson


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Cory Booker on October 16, 2013, 04:11:05 pm
Lucky for us shutdown happened the senate especially Pryor, Begich and Landrieu would have been lost.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on October 16, 2013, 04:32:30 pm
Rounds was never on par with Hoever. He was expected to be about on par with Johanns.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: morgieb on October 16, 2013, 04:35:20 pm
If Nunn's tying a Generic R....that says a lot. Hagan looking good if she's ahead by 5 with the Generic R.

Calling bullsh**t on the SD numbers, and the Arkansas numbers worry me if Pryor can't get a bump from the shutdown.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Holmes on October 16, 2013, 05:01:59 pm
Georgia will come around.

But at least Democrats have a rebuttal for the Obama boogieman now, even in right-leaning states apparently.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: publicunofficial on October 16, 2013, 05:33:05 pm
Don't worry guys, the NRSC has come to the rescue and unskewed these polls for us. It turns out they're actually GREAT news for Republicans.

http://www.nrsc.org/blog/ppp-shows-gop-strength-in-senate-but-still-hasnt-learned-their-lesson

They say that the Georgia/Iowa polls are invalid because Rothenberg said that testing against Generic R/D is a bad idea, but they don't get the point of that Rothenberg column.

Rothenberg said Generic R OUTperforms actual candidates, not the other way around.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Beat-‘Em-All Beto on October 16, 2013, 05:39:24 pm
Lucky for us shutdown happened the senate especially Pryor, Begich and Landrieu would have been lost.
Pryor would've been lost. Landrieu and Begich were and still are popular, as well as gain a lot of crossover support.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: PolitiJunkie on October 16, 2013, 06:03:23 pm
Don't worry guys, the NRSC has come to the rescue and unskewed these polls for us. It turns out they're actually GREAT news for Republicans.

http://www.nrsc.org/blog/ppp-shows-gop-strength-in-senate-but-still-hasnt-learned-their-lesson

This article is absolutely hilarious. Not only do they make the absurd claim that Generic R/D UNDERPERFORMS the actual candidates, but they also try to invalidate Michigan's PPP poll by citing the EPIC-MRA and MIRSNews polls that have been proven massively junky. I love this. I'm sure they said the same thing in 2012.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 16, 2013, 06:39:40 pm
On Weiland: there are several issues that may be causing these results. The most obvious is biased polling/inclusion of a libertarian who'll suck votes from Rounds. Additionally, though, Rounds has been publicly pro-shutdown/default while Weiland has been very anti-shutdown, which lets Weiland hit Rounds on the farm bill, social security, veterans benefits, etc. But more importantly (there was an NPR report (http://www.npr.org/2013/10/14/233790772/s-d-ranchers-struggle-to-get-out-from-under-blizzard) on this, otherwise I'd have had no idea, hasn't gotten a lot of news coverage) there was a massive blizzard in western South Dakota a week or two ago, with tens thousands of cattle dead. There's been basically no response because of the government shutdown, which Weiland (as a former FEMA director) can use.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: badgate on October 16, 2013, 10:23:17 pm
Seriously, has Andy Borowitz infiltrated the NRSC?


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 17, 2013, 01:08:16 am
These all look good except for South Dakota. I'm actually quite concerned about LA, Bill Cassidy has got to do something to make his republican base (more moderate white voters) come home. Unfortunately, they didn't poll Alaska, which I would like to see a PPP poll on. And for South Dakota, Rounds leading by ONLY 6 POINTS. Sorry, but I'm not buying that.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: dmmidmi on October 17, 2013, 07:20:03 am
Also, why the HELL did they not poll Montana? I think that most of us would have liked to have seen that over any of these races aside from maybe Arkansas.

Daines hasn't formally declared yet.

Rapid reactions:
  • Still good news in LA for the GOP - voters are still less likely to vote for Landrieu over the shutdown, and even though she breaks 50%, that'll come down

Just because I'm curious--how is this poll good news for the GOP in Louisiana? Almost every poll of this race has shown a Landrieu lead of between 2% and 10%, and this is right in line with those.


Title: SD: Public Policy Polling: Rounds with Lead in South Dakota; Lib @ 11%
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 17, 2013, 09:40:03 am
New Poll: South Dakota Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-13 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=46220131013108)

Summary: D: 34%, R: 40%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_SD_1016.pdf)


Title: AR: Public Policy Polling: Prior with Slight Lead over Cotton in Arkansas
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 17, 2013, 09:45:20 am
New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5220131015108)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf)


Title: GA: Public Policy Polling: Nunn ties Generic Republican in Georgia
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 17, 2013, 09:48:42 am
New Poll: Georgia Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=13220131015108)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 42%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf)


Title: IA: Public Policy Polling: Braley with Slight Lead over Generic Republican in Iowa
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 17, 2013, 09:50:38 am
New Poll: Iowa Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220131015108)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf)


Title: LA: Public Policy Polling: Landrieu with Lead in Louisiana
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 17, 2013, 09:53:02 am
New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=22220131015108)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 41%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf)


Title: MI: Public Policy Polling: Peters with Lead in Michigan
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 17, 2013, 09:54:55 am
New Poll: Michigan Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=26220131015108)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 36%, U: 21%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf)


Title: NC: Public Policy Polling: Hagan with Lead in North Carolina
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 17, 2013, 09:56:10 am
New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220131015108)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf)


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 17, 2013, 10:13:27 am
Dave, that South Dakota poll is basically an internal. It shouldn't be in the database.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on October 18, 2013, 02:12:47 am
This:

Dave, that South Dakota poll is basically an internal. It shouldn't be in the database.

And the others are probably some kind of internal too, because they were done for a leftist group.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Cory Booker on October 18, 2013, 07:36:03 pm
I don't think we will win all these races but we can net some new seats like Grimes even if we lose someone like Pryor.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: Vosem on October 19, 2013, 05:35:36 pm
That Georgia poll is really concerning. The rest are just affirmations of what we already knew.


Title: Re: PPP dumps 7 Senate polls
Post by: CnstutnlCnsrvatv on October 20, 2013, 02:22:05 pm
phil gingrey willwin because georgia voters will realize that hey like the constitution more than a last name