Title: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 08, 2013, 03:34:32 AM What is your guess of the white vote (%) in these states based on 2008 exit polls?
Alaska - 65% McCain, 64% Romney Arkansas - 68% McCain, 72% Romney Delaware - 53% Obama, 50% Romney D.C. - 86% Obama, 82% Obama Georgia - 76% McCain, 79% Romney Hawaii - 70% Obama, 66% Obama Idaho - 65% McCain, 68% Romney Kentucky - 63% McCain, 67% Romney Louisiana - 84% McCain, 84% Romney Nebraska - 59% McCain, 64% Romney North Dakota - 55% McCain, 60% Romney Oklahoma - 71% McCain, 73% Romney Rhode Island - 58% Obama, 56% Obama South Carolina - 73% McCain, 76% Romney South Dakota - 56% McCain, 61% Romney Tennessee - 63% McCain, 68% Romney Texas - 73% McCain, 78% Romney Utah - 66% McCain, 76% Romney West Virginia - 57% McCain, 63% Romney Wyoming - 66% McCain, 70% Romney Reasonable? What do you think? Title: Re: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: eric82oslo on August 08, 2013, 04:47:50 AM What is your guess of the white vote (%) in these states based on 2008 exit polls? Alaska - 65% McCain, 64% Romney Hawaii - 70% Obama, 66% Obama Texas - 73% McCain, 77% Romney Utah - 66% McCain, 75% Romney West Virginia - 57% McCain, 63% Romney Reasonable? What do you think? I think you underestimate Romney's loss in Alaska, and underestimate his gains in Texas, Utah and West Virginia. Probably overestimate his gains in Hawaii as well, although they make up such a tiny percentage of that state that it's hard to know. Come to think of it, these numbers have to be doubled up when you count the winning margin, so it's not too unlikely actually. But I still disagree with the numbers on Alaska, Hawaii and Texas. My feeling says whites voted 78-83% Republican in Texas. Title: Re: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 08, 2013, 05:32:26 AM What is your guess of the white vote (%) in these states based on 2008 exit polls? Alaska - 65% McCain, 64% Romney Hawaii - 70% Obama, 66% Obama Texas - 73% McCain, 77% Romney Utah - 66% McCain, 75% Romney West Virginia - 57% McCain, 63% Romney Reasonable? What do you think? I think you underestimate Romney's loss in Alaska, and underestimate his gains in Texas, Utah and West Virginia. Probably overestimate his gains in Hawaii as well, although they make up such a tiny percentage of that state that it's hard to know. Come to think of it, these numbers have to be doubled up when you count the winning margin, so it's not too unlikely actually. But I still disagree with the numbers on Alaska, Hawaii and Texas. My feeling says whites voted 78-83% Republican in Texas. I was thinking that much of Obama's improvement there was because of a hard swing of Eskimos and Asians which make up a good portion of the electorate, would.... say 62% Romney be more reasonable? Lower than that? Now that I think about it, I did underestimate Romney in Utah, 76/77% would definitely be more reasonable, and maybe 64% in West Virginia, but no higher than that because its a very white state. In Texas, was there a hard swing with Hispanics? I know there was a swing, but how much? That + Increased black turnout = Heavy Romney White Vote? The state trended R, but I still can't see how whites would go from 73% to 82% or something like that, I would probably think its around 77/78/79% or maybe even 80%. In Hawaii, probably the hardest state to predict, I thought the republican trend with whites along with the slight republican swing of the state would put white voters at mid to high 60's. Again, its really hard to tell because their only about 20% of the population and 40% of the electorate. Anyway, thanks for taking consideration of opinion. Title: Re: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: barfbag on August 08, 2013, 11:23:57 PM Funny to see. Mitt Romney has to be the whitest candidate we've ever seen run in the general election.
Title: Re: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2013, 03:00:49 AM () Title: Re: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 19, 2015, 04:46:02 PM Here's the numbers according to Adam's map:
Mississippi: 87% Romney, 11% Obama Louisiana: 84% Romney, 14% Obama Alabama: 83% Romney, 16% Obama Utah: 79% Romney, 18% Obama Georgia: 79% Romney, 20% Obama Texas: 79% Romney, 20% Obama South Carolina: 75% Romney, 23% Obama Oklahoma: 73% Romney, 27% Obama Wyoming: 71% Romney, 25% Obama Arkansas: 70% Romney, 27% Obama Idaho: 69% Romney, 28% Obama North Carolina: 68% Romney, 31% Obama Tennessee: 68% Romney, 31% Obama Kentucky: 67% Romney, 32% Obama Kansas: 65% Romney, 33% Obama West Virginia: 65% Romney, 33% Obama Nebraska: 64% Romney, 33% Obama Alaska: 63% Romney, 33% Obama North Dakota: 62% Romney, 35% Obama South Dakota: 62% Romney, 35% Obama Arizona: 62% Romney, 37% Obama Missouri: 62% Romney, 36% Obama Virginia: 61% Romney, 37% Obama Florida: 61% Romney, 38% Obama Indiana: 60% Romney, 38% Obama Montana: 59% Romney, 38% Obama New Mexico: 57% Romney, 39% Obama Nevada: 57% Romney, 41% Obama Ohio: 56% Romney, 42% Obama Michigan: 55% Romney, 44% Obama Pennsylvania: 55% Romney, 44% Obama New Jersey: 54% Romney, 45% Obama Illinois: 53% Romney, 45% Obama Maryland: 52% Romney, 46% Obama Colorado: 51% Romney, 47% Obama Delaware: 50% Romney, 48% Obama Wisconsin: 50% Romney, 48% Obama Minnesota: 49% Romney, 48% Obama California: 49% Obama, 48% Romney Iowa: 50% Obama, 48% Romney New Hampshire: 50% Obama, 48% Romney New York: 51% Obama, 47% Romney Washington: 51% Obama, 46% Romney Oregon: 51% Obama, 45% Romney Connecticut: 53% Obama, 46% Romney Maine: 56% Obama, 42% Romney Massachusetts: 58% Obama, 40% Romney Rhode Island: 60% Obama, 38% Romney Hawaii: 65% Obama, 33% Romney Vermont: 66% Obama, 31% Romney DC: 87% Obama, 11% Romney I was pretty close for most of them, except for Rhode Island. For some of these states the exit poll information is different than Adam's, so the exit polls could be misleading. Title: Re: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: YaBoyNY on August 22, 2015, 05:50:52 PM 20 - 22% sounds about right for Obama's white % in Texas. There's a certain ceiling that Republicans have hit there. The 20 - 22% are your genuine liberals and holdout union workers who are never going to vote Republican except under really specific circumstances.
Title: Re: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States Post by: Skill and Chance on September 11, 2015, 11:08:59 AM 20 - 22% sounds about right for Obama's white % in Texas. There's a certain ceiling that Republicans have hit there. The 20 - 22% are your genuine liberals and holdout union workers who are never going to vote Republican except under really specific circumstances. I agree regarding white Texas Dems who already live there, but keep in mind that Texas presently has white conservatives pouring in from all over the country. So I could see Texas white voters being at LA/MS levels in the 2020's, but the trend will be from the new arrivals. PS: Texas whites likely being right of Oklahoma whites is surprising to me. Although of course white/native identity is very fluid in OK, which makes it hard to be confident in any subsample by race. |