Talk Elections

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 41%
Phil Gingrey .................................................... 41%

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 40%
David Perdue .................................................. 40%

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 40%
Karen Handel.................................................. 38%

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 40%
Jack Kingston ................................................. 38%

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 41%
Paul Broun...................................................... 36%

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 42%
Derrick Grayson.............................................. 36%

Michelle Nunn ................................................. 42%
Eugene Yu ...................................................... 35%

...

Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 43%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 50%

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Nunn?

Favorable........................................................ 56%
Unfavorable .................................................... 12%

...

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michelle Nunn?

Favorable........................................................ 20%
Unfavorable .................................................... 19%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Phil Gingrey?

Favorable........................................................ 24%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Perdue?

Favorable........................................................ 17%
Unfavorable .................................................... 27%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Karen Handel?

Favorable........................................................ 21%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Kingston?

Favorable........................................................ 19%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Broun?

Favorable........................................................ 15%
Unfavorable .................................................... 29%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Derrick Grayson?

Favorable........................................................ 5%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eugene Yu?

Favorable........................................................ 4%
Unfavorable .................................................... 20%

...

August 2-4, 2013
Survey of 520 Georgia voters

http://images.politico.com/global/2013/08/05/embargoed_gasenateresults.pdf

Excellent.

:)

Broun  Broun!

News of the day. :D

Even the Romney supporters seem to be liking Michelle. :)

Maybe because they think it's her dad, running for Senate again ... :P ;)

The Gingrey vs Broun primary runoff should be interesting.

Early yet, but yet another reason why I believe in runoffs. Weed out the crazies. :P

GOP primary part of the poll (not in the Politico PDF, but in the PPP release):


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/georgia-senate-starts-as-toss-up.html

Dominating.
(well for Georgia)

Ugh, Gingrey's ahead.

Really hope Kingston (or Handel/Perdue, but Kingston's been fundraising better) can coalesce the not-Gingrey-or-Broun vote to a spot in the runoff. The fact that right now the likeliest scenario seems to be that Gingrey wins a runoff with Broun for the nomination and then a runoff with Nunn for the Senate seat itself...gah.

Kingston is a king appropriator, don't want those types to be rewarded for that behavior.

Paul "Evolution Isn't Real" Broun and Phil "Todd Akin Was Right" Gingrey are much worse and need to be kept out of the Senate at all costs. (Especially Gingrey. Broun, as noted above, at least has some redeeming qualities; I'm hard-pressed to think of any reason to support Gingrey beyond "Republican Senate majority".) Of the Republican candidates, Eugene Yu seems like the best, followed by Handel/Perdue tied, then followed by Kingston, but tactically speaking Kingston is in third place behind Broun and Gingrey in the primary and is the strongest fundraiser; he can deny Broun/Gingrey the nomination. I'd much rather one of the lesser candidates did so, but helping them out is just splitting the anti-Broun/Gingrey vote.

I believe Broun's line on evolution was "fire pits of hell", also called Obama a Marxist and is a Birther. To begin with. Makes Bachmann look like Collins.

http://www.nytimes.com/cq/2007/07/24/cq_3155.html



Reminder that Broun won his House seat in the first place due to Democrats interfering with the primary.

Imagine most undecideds lean Republican, but this is still good news.

Great news!

The flood of Obama = Nunn ads and the dropoff in brown turnout make me very pessimistic about this race.

Of course there's going to be a flood of Obama = Nunn ads. That's standard operating procedure for any election where a moderate is running in a state with an unfavorable partisan landscape. If Nunn's campaign team doesn't have an effective counter prepared then they're utterly incompetent and don't deserve to win this election anyway.

Paging Adam Griffin with his charts on the racial turnout. Whites will almost certainly make a greater percentage of the electorate than in 2012 yes but non-white vote share will probably even be higher than it was in 2008 if you look at the trend.

What's with Eugene Yu's favorables? Clearly almost nobody knows who he is, so why do so many people dislike him compared to those who do?

Michelle Nunn has never held elected office before so at this stage I'd guess this is largely based on the Nunn family name.  We'll have to see if her numbers hold up once she and her opponent(s) start campaigning full-bore.

I think PPP (and some other pollsters have seen similar things) is seeing a strand of people who just reflexively declare that they disapprove of any politician, even if they've never heard of them. So, unknown novices start off with negative approval in polling because of this effect.

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-08-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=13220130805108)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 41%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://images.politico.com/global/2013/08/05/embargoed_gasenateresults.pdf)

Hello everyone I am here

(Right-click, open in new window)

()

EDIT: Also included if anyone wants to do some plug-and-play:


Had to liven up the original electorate chart and give it a few new elements. The most recent Census numbers leave me a tad concerned - perhaps black transplantation has finally stopped. On one hand - based on the averages from the past twenty years - the trend suggests that there will not be a huge increase in the white share of the electorate in 2014; a small increase is likely. On the other hand, the past three mid-terms in Georgia show that mid-term white surges have increased each time - 0.6 points (2002 compared to 2000), 1.5 points (2006 compared to 2004) and 2.2 points (2010 compared to 2008).

I really tend to think that 2010 was a fluke, though - the biggest surge from whites we could ever expect to see again, in other words. The unprecedented amount of white anger combined with the massive shifts we saw in 2008 meant there'd be a correction of sorts. Inversely, black turnout in 2010 did not plummet like many had thought it would without Obama being on the ballot; it appears to be holding relatively steady.

If the second paragraph proves to be true, then 2014 may very well be the last time we see an increase in white turnout between a presidential election and a subsequent mid-term election. Going forward, it is possible that the shifts will be large enough overall to ensure at least slight decreases in the white share of the electorate every two years.

Those Georgia stat posts are always a great read. One thing I wonder about going forward is if whites shift a bit in their voting patterns, say Georgia whites being less Republican in 2016 compared to 2004 due to part of the older generation being replaced with the younger generation of whites. A 2012 exit poll for Georgia sure would have been nice...

I would have loved to have seen some exit polling. In the second graphic that I just added, the closest scenarios for each race's likely voter breakdown is presented (2008 in green, 2012 in orange). If you compare the 2008 scenario to the exit polling, you'll see it's pretty close. In other words, I think the 2012 scenario on my spreadsheet there is pretty dang close (whites, 79% Romney; non-whites, 86% Obama). While the actual scenario isn't visible on the chart, in 2010 (with adjustments made to include the 4% that Monds (L) received in the general election), Barnes appears to have received 19% of the white vote and 85% of the non-white vote; there was certainly a bit of a rebound in 2012.

Still, the one thing I am bullish about in Georgia is a sudden shift in white voters. Sure, a candidate like Nunn may pull some of the older, disaffected Dems and moderates back into the fold for this occasion. Ultimately, though, 2008 exit polls showed that young Georgians are basically as Republican as their elders - I believe 18-30 was 51% McCain.

I would have loved to have seen some exit polling. In the second graphic that I just added, the closest scenarios for each race's likely voter breakdown is presented (2008 in green, 2012 in orange). If you compare the 2008 scenario to the exit polling and election results, you'll see it's pretty close. In other words, I think the 2012 scenario on my spreadsheet there is pretty dang close (whites, 79% Romney; non-whites, 86% Obama). While the actual scenario isn't visible on the chart, in 2010 (with adjustments made to include the 4% that Monds (L) received in the general election), Barnes appears to have received 19% of the white vote and 85% of the non-white vote; there was perhaps a small rebound in 2012.

Still, the one thing I am bearish about in Georgia is a sudden shift in white voters. Sure, a candidate like Nunn may pull some of the older, disaffected Dems and moderates back into the fold for this occasion. Ultimately, though, 2008 exit polls showed that young Georgians are basically as Republican as their elders - I believe 18-30 was 51% McCain. Kerry got 23% of the white vote, as did Obama in 2008. In 2012, it appears to have been 20%. This is all riding on the subtle shifts in the electorate.

As a Georgian I am so excited to see Michelle Nunn be competitive. Although I am not sure her campaign strategy is the best. I do feel the large GOP field will hurt the Republicans, that combined with the slow but consistent demographic shift could make GA a purple state and Nunn the best chance in '14 for Dems in GA state wide. (Sorry Mayor Reed)

Till we see Nunn hitting at or DARN near 50%, she's an underdog at best. A post-November runoff electorate will be strongly tilted GOP.

If the nominee is Broun or Gingrey, I think she'll have a good shot. The others would probably beat her handily.

I'd be willing to bet two or three fingers that it WILL be Broun or Gingrey though.