Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: hopper on July 12, 2013, 11:37:42 am



Title: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: hopper on July 12, 2013, 11:37:42 am
Is Delaware getting more conservative or it was just a fluke that a Northeast State like Delaware trended Republican in 2012?


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on July 12, 2013, 11:46:06 am
Fluke. Probably depressed Democrat turnout. Delaware has a small population so a small turnout drop could make a big difference in terms of trends.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: tpfkaw on July 12, 2013, 11:53:03 am
Biden is no longer their long-term Senator.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Space7 on July 12, 2013, 11:53:31 am
I also say fluke.

It reverses direction occasionally, such as in 2004, but Delaware has a very clear Democratic trend.

1988 R+5
1992 D+3 (Trended D+8)
1996 D+8 (Trended D+5)
2000 D+13 (Trended D+5)
2004 D+10 (Trended R+3)
2008 D+18 (Trended D+8)
2012 D+15 (Trended R+3)


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 12, 2013, 05:33:53 pm
In my view, 2008 was a fluke with a massive D trend. I think 2012 was a reset back to normal between 2004 and 2008. Probably many white conservative voters there who took the chance (and possibly because of Joe Biden) to vote for Obama because they were tired of the Bush administration. 2008 was a very motivating year for democrats.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: barfbag on July 14, 2013, 07:33:49 pm
In my view, 2008 was a fluke with a massive D trend. I think 2012 was a reset back to normal between 2004 and 2008. Probably many white conservative voters there who took the chance (and possibly because of Joe Biden) to vote for Obama because they were tired of the Bush administration. 2008 was a very motivating year for democrats.

I agree with you and would say Delaware is such a small state that it's easy for it to show trends and swings simply because of a change in voter turnout. It's just too small. Having said that, I'd like to see the GOP compete in Delaware early in 2016. Christie may not be a far fetched success there.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Asian Nazi on July 14, 2013, 08:11:35 pm
It's a small state so I could see Biden actually helping the Democrats in Delaware in 2008, and as usual the favorite son effect wears off after four years.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on July 15, 2013, 01:04:38 pm
It's also got more than its fair share of the kind of affluent urbane suburbanite types that much of the Republican regains (ie 2004 R - 2008 D - 2012 R voters, as opposed to DDR) come from.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on July 15, 2013, 04:25:36 pm
Same as Illinois. Home State Effect backlash.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on July 17, 2013, 11:19:28 am
The 2008 margin was inflated thanks to Biden. It's clearly not trending Republican.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: barfbag on July 17, 2013, 11:24:07 am
The 2008 margin was inflated thanks to Biden. It's clearly not trending Republican.

It's not likely trending Republican. At best it could be a purplish blue state trending towards light or even solid blue at a slow pace.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: sg0508 on November 03, 2013, 10:00:24 am
When is the last time the GOP carried ANY major statewide race there? Obviously, we only see the result from the gubernatorial races, but Bill Roth was the last I could remember back in '94...yikes.

Yes, Mike Castle lived in the house for years after being governor, but even he was thrown out in one of the dumbest primaries and decisions the GOP EVER made.

George Bush quietly made a mild play for DE back in '04 when 9/11 was an issue in the northeast and he got within 7.5%, but it's not like it was ever in doubt.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Mechaman on November 03, 2013, 10:32:00 am
For the reason everything happens in Delaware:

Boredom


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: TDAS04 on November 03, 2013, 10:49:01 am
Same reason Illinois trended Republican in 2012.  Home state excitement wears off after the first term.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: RedSLC on November 03, 2013, 01:22:34 pm
When is the last time the GOP carried ANY major statewide race there? Obviously, we only see the result from the gubernatorial races, but Bill Roth was the last I could remember back in '94...yikes.

Yes, Mike Castle lived in the house for years after being governor, but even he was thrown out in one of the dumbest primaries and decisions the GOP EVER made.

George Bush quietly made a mild play for DE back in '04 when 9/11 was an issue in the northeast and he got within 7.5%, but it's not like it was ever in doubt.

Delaware narrowly reelected its incumbent State Treasurer, Tom Wagner, in 2010. He's currently the only republican holding statewide office.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 03, 2013, 01:46:59 pm
It's too small to be a target.  Because it only has 3 EV, it gets a lot less attention and that probably lends to it swinging more than the nation.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: Sol on November 03, 2013, 06:48:55 pm
Probably the same trend one sees in some Philly suburban counties.


Title: Re: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
Post by: barfbag on November 06, 2013, 03:23:43 am
2008 D+18
2012 D+15

I don't think this is a very significant trend. Obama and Biden were more popular in 2008 than in 2012 and there might even have been an even bigger trend in Delaware being that it's Biden's home state. His home state advantage in 2008 was great and the ticket's downgrade in 2012 was more significant in a state where they had greater help before. It's only three points.