Talk Elections

From their Twitter:


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/304790914142973952

Not too shocking, honestly. I wonder if Christie would've done better than Ryan or Walker.

No big surprise. I can't still say that Scott Walker is one of the most unpopular Governors in the US, as there are so many. Paul Ryan has never won a statewide election in Wisconsin -- including for Vice President of the United States.

The full poll should be interesting. 

Because he's pretty popular...

Bubble.

2012 was supposed to be their big shot at Wisconsin and they lost by 7 points.

Numeros please?

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.


()

Note that the green shades all stand for Republican Governors whose approval ratings are negative. Republican Governors of Maine, Pennsylvania, Michigan, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are doing badly. Causes are your guesses.

There's only one state with an orange shade indicating a Democrat doing badly -- Illinois. The Governorship of Illinois is a snake-bitten job.

This might explain things:

Really, he is about even -- but just under -- with an approval rating of 48-49. That's not quite as bad as the ratings for some other Republican Governors, but  that's not what I would describe as "pretty popular".

Update -- Sam Brownback is very unpopular in Kansas. I had missed Sean Parnell in Alaska, and he is slightly above water.  

I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

Qualification: The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose positive margin of  approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval. A governor is not in a strong position until he has at least 50% approval. The rationale is to avoid giving a recently-elected Governor credit for a "honeymoon".

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are yellow.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.


()

Note that the green shades all stand for Republican Governors whose approval ratings are negative. Republican Governors of Maine, Pennsylvania, Michigan, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas (now add Kansas, of all places) are doing badly. Causes are your guesses.

There's only one state with an orange shade indicating a Democrat doing badly -- Illinois. The Governorship of Illinois is a snake-bitten job.

Full numbers:

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 52%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 38%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 51%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 54%
Scott Walker ................................................... 41%

In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_022813.pdf

For Clinton-Rubio, that's actually not much of a trend from the national average, relative to 2012.  Clinton-Rubio seems to be showing a big trend towards the Dems in the strong GOP states of the South, and a couple of other strong GOP states, but not so much in the upper Midwest or Mountain West.  Still, that's based on just a handful of polls.  We need more polls in Democratic leaning states.  I'm curious to see what result we get when they poll Michigan next week.

Bye bye Ron Johnson. 

No surprise here at all. Wisconsin is no longer a swing state, in my opinion. As for Walker, he was only popular in the Recall because people saw it as one small group not getting their way and throwing a fit for it. Because of that, a lot of Dems crossed over to vote for him. They are still loyal Democrats, though.

I think this is really just more of a question of how silly polls can be years before the election.  There were multiple national polls showing Hillary ahead of all Republicans by 20+ points.

Actually, Feingold is the one saying bye to Wisconsin politics.

Not to pick on Eraserhead but I think this post shows why we didn't take WI seriously as a swing state. Same with MI and to a lesser extent PA.

Yep, and we'll probably see a lot more outrageous polls the next time one side or the other has an inevitable nominee. The reason why Hillary had such a big lead against certain republicans is there are a lot of people who will say before a primary, "well I don't see how I could stomach voting for x", and tell a pollster they're undecided or even voting for the dem or a third party. But after the primary, when push comes to shove and they actually have to vote against their party, they almost never actually do so.