Talk Elections

FINAL RESULTS:

4,471,871 - 63.41% - Obama
2,485,432 - 35.24% - Romney
     47,092 - Johnson
     39,856 - Stein
       8,652 - Others/Write-ins

     63,881 - BVS (Blank, Void, Scattering)

7,116,784 - Total
7,052,903 - Total (without BVS)

http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/PresidentVicePresident12Final12312012.pdf

The election is over!

Except a few write-in-votes from the states that Dave will add in the next weeks.

Anyway, regarding New York State:

Since the election night tally, Obama gained 596.000 votes, Romney gained 258.000 votes and others gained 10.000 votes - for 864.000 votes added since then overall.

Obama won those additional votes by 69-30-1.

I just watched a bit from the election-night video again that I recorded on my HDD.

At 9pm, CNN had Romney ahead in the national popular vote by 51-48 (with 10% of the votes counted).

Even when Obama was declared the winner slightly after 11pm, Romney was still leading Obama in the NPV by 50-48 (with 50% of the votes counted).

And now Obama leads by 51-47, with all in.

Does this mean that the GOP candidate has to lead by at least 6% in 2016 @ 11pm to have a chance to win the NPV ?

LOL, they spared us from the shame of not having managed to certify an election within the year.

And that means VA is officially Democratic by 0.03pts! :D

So that means New York is the 5th state that swung Democratic. Am I Right?

The 6th.

AK, LA, MS, MD, NJ, NY.

Possible explanations for the states that swung to Obama ?

AK: probably Palin not being on the ballot anymore, homestate effect in 2008

LA & MS: white people who saw that the black Obama is not the Anti-Christ and that the world still stands after 4 years

MD: liberals turning out for the gay marriage amendment ?

NJ & NY: Sandy and the Osama-got-killed-effect

For some reason, Dave still doesn't display the official results for Massachusetts (even though he's already updated NY). ???

I think it has more to do with increasing black turnout in both states.

NJ also has a lot of Latinos and Asians (the latter group had a massive swing which has gone fairly ignored in most analysis of the election). Louisiana and Mississippi's swings were in part due to Obama not shedding any more white voters than he already did, but from where the swings were in the states, were mostly thanks to heavy black turnout. Maryland can be partially explained by the demographic shifts and partly by Sandy, but I'd have expected enough rich white people to flip to Romney to prevent an outright swing to Obama. Guess not.

I don't think black turnout really increased compared with the already strong 2008 black turnout.

More like blacks turning out in similar numbers like in 2008, while more whites stayed home or voted for Obama by a slightly higher margin.

For Mississippi I agree, but displaced black people are moving back to Louisiana post Katrina, which increased black turnout there this year.

IIRC the Black birthrate is higher in the South than the white one which may explain some of this.

So is it done? The Google Docs 2012 results still shows HI as not certified

Signed, sealed and delivered to the Archivist:

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2012-certificates/pdfs/ascertainment-hawaii.pdf

AK: Palin fans ticked at Romney not embracing her
MS-LA: Evangelical Christians not thrilled with Romney (same reason Repub vote total dropped in Tenn, Alabama, Okla) In LA white turnout was same % as 08 but black turnout ticked up 2%

NY-NJ: You know..

MD:  Trending Democratic at a rate far above any nat'l average.  Fast growing democratic constituents, Republicans slowly trickling out

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In NY Obama won at least one county in each of the 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 percent ranges. Well done there

NJ, NY, and LA all swung to Obama?!  Hooray!  : D

Had Romney done slightly worse in Summit or Grand, he could have accomplished the same in Utah.

Yes, and 4 other states came within 1% of swinging to Obama: RI, AZ, CA and AL.

So you're saying the Palin lovers still left in Alaska were ticked that Romney didn't embrace her, so they went and voted for Obama?? Or are you saying they just stayed home?

They clearly stayed home.  Turnout was down big in Alaska.

Obama lost 954 votes of his 2008 performance, a negligible change
Romney lost 29,165 votes off McCain, a major drop off

Still, Romney did well in the Mat-Su region (Wasilla)

My Palin explanation is just a hypothesis, but it is plausible

Wikipedia now says 0.02% ... :P

Hopefully VA remains more DEM than the nation ...

The state of Robert E. Lee is now more Democratic than America as a whole? Clearly this means the Democrat Party is the party of slavery.

The huge swing in the Native Alaskan vote accounted for a lot of the change in Alaska.

Yeah. I think it's made of the same stuff as the Asian and Cuban swings. Natural reaction to enthusiastic White Republican embrace of Nativism.

Turnout decreased massively in Alaska though, and that is certainly the Palin-not-on-the-ticket factor. It happened both in places with huge Dem swings and places without, however.

As Dave Wassermann has stopped to update his 'NY state by county' sheet, does anybody have an idea where the last batch of 12.400 or so additional votes has come from? Nassau?