Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: jman123 on December 13, 2012, 07:16:02 pm



Title: South Carolina
Post by: jman123 on December 13, 2012, 07:16:02 pm
I am shocked at South Carolina getting a strong obama showing. Come on.  its the deep south.


Title: Re: south carolina
Post by: SetonHallPirate on December 13, 2012, 11:30:37 pm
I am shocked at South Carolina getting a strong obama showing. Come on.  its the deep south.
I'm not. In fact, had Obama played up the 47% comment from the day it was unveiled by Mother Jones, along with an advertising blitz within the Deep South, I think he very well could have gotten enough of the Caucasians in the Deep South states (aside from, due to the economic center known as Atlanta, Georgia) to stay home to have carried all of those states.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 16, 2012, 06:53:41 am
And the trend though slow is clear. If the current national alignment holds long enough, with Blacks having a higher birthrate than native Whites and northern White immigration to the Charleston area, South Carolina will become a swing state eventually.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: opebo on December 16, 2012, 06:59:57 am
What's the Democratic voting percentage among whites in South Carolina?  Its probably higher than almost any other deep south state, right?

Just checked, found this map, I guess its from 2008, no idea how accurate, but it looks like I was more or less right on that guess:

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Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: old timey villain on December 16, 2012, 05:13:09 pm
And the trend though slow is clear. If the current national alignment holds long enough, with Blacks having a higher birthrate than native Whites and northern White immigration to the Charleston area, South Carolina will become a swing state eventually.

Charleston county swung and trended against Obama.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on December 16, 2012, 08:59:01 pm
And the trend though slow is clear. If the current national alignment holds long enough, with Blacks having a higher birthrate than native Whites and northern White immigration to the Charleston area, South Carolina will become a swing state eventually.
It's possible, but I don't think it's even likely for at least a few more decades.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: BaldEagle1991 on December 16, 2012, 11:42:35 pm
A lot of the closeness has a lot to do with the African Americans living there.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: True Federalist on December 17, 2012, 01:52:36 pm
And the trend though slow is clear. If the current national alignment holds long enough, with Blacks having a higher birthrate than native Whites and northern White immigration to the Charleston area, South Carolina will become a swing state eventually.

Charleston county swung and trended against Obama.

Charleston County went from 61.9% White and 34.5% Black in the 2000 Census to 64.2% White and 29.8% Black in the 2010 Census.  The Black population of Charleston County actually went down from 107K to 104K.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: Devils30 on December 17, 2012, 08:29:53 pm
That actually implies that Dems gains there have primarily come from educated whites.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on December 17, 2012, 09:14:50 pm
Liberals who moved to SC from the Northeast?


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: A Brave Old Fuzzy Bear for a Brave New Atlas on December 17, 2012, 09:47:19 pm
Of all the Deep Southern states, SC has the 2nd most changing population (behind GA).


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: ajb on December 17, 2012, 10:21:51 pm
And the trend though slow is clear. If the current national alignment holds long enough, with Blacks having a higher birthrate than native Whites and northern White immigration to the Charleston area, South Carolina will become a swing state eventually.

Charleston county swung and trended against Obama.

Charleston County went from 61.9% White and 34.5% Black in the 2000 Census to 64.2% White and 29.8% Black in the 2010 Census.  The Black population of Charleston County actually went down from 107K to 104K.

True across the state, which went from 30% black to 27% black over the same period. Demographic changes will likely make SC more Republican over time.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on December 18, 2012, 11:07:18 am
That actually implies that Dems gains there have primarily come from educated whites.
Exactly.

They are, of course, not as Democratic as the Blacks.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: Devils30 on December 18, 2012, 01:56:50 pm
Whites in Charleston are probably among the least conservative of SC (meaning Obama gets 30ish) rather than the 15-25 he gets in other parts of SC.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: opebo on December 18, 2012, 02:17:40 pm

Charleston County went from 61.9% White and 34.5% Black in the 2000 Census to 64.2% White and 29.8% Black in the 2010 Census.  The Black population of Charleston County actually went down from 107K to 104K.

True across the state, which went from 30% black to 27% black over the same period. Demographic changes will likely make SC more Republican over time.

So, is it that whites are moving in, blacks are moving out, or a combination of both?


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: True Federalist on December 18, 2012, 08:26:42 pm

Charleston County went from 61.9% White and 34.5% Black in the 2000 Census to 64.2% White and 29.8% Black in the 2010 Census.  The Black population of Charleston County actually went down from 107K to 104K.

True across the state, which went from 30% black to 27% black over the same period. Demographic changes will likely make SC more Republican over time.

So, is it that whites are moving in, blacks are moving out, or a combination of both?

It's a case of non-native whites moving in while both native whites and blacks are moving out to the suburbs, but not the same suburbs.  The high-priced developments right along the coast are not surprisingly attracting more affluent people to them.  Whereas the more reasonably priced inland suburbs of Dorchester and Berkeley Counties are getting the middle classes.  The stratification that is going on in the developments is on socioeconomic lines, not racial, but obviously it does show up in the racial profiles.

It's just the popularity of beachfront property that is driving this, tho it plays a part.  While it may have changed since then, I know that decade ago the Charleston County public schools had such an awful reputation that teachers preferred to work elsewhere.  So basically if you're rich enough to move to where better schools are but not rich enough to send your kids to a private academy, you'll head across the county line to live.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on December 18, 2012, 10:00:47 pm
Outside of Wando and Academic Magnent, most of the people I know went to private schools in Charleston.
 
I was kind of surprised at the voting here in 2012. We swung hard to Obama in 2008 and seemed to move back towards Mittens in 2012, but maybe he played well in Charleston as opposed to McCain. Many people in my community who voted for Obama in 2008 switched back because of the economy and taxes.

Voters here tend to be more liberal than the state has a whole. Charleston opposed the same sex marriage ban in 2006 when the state overwhelmingly approved the amendment. But we are getting whiter. Much of the property is being restored downtown and other places, and young affluent people are moving in, either graduates from the college or those who moved here from other places. Places that were dangerous or run down 12 years ago are now vibrant and new, with new communities springing up. So it's growing and changing a lot (pop is up 25% since 2000).


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on December 18, 2012, 10:39:55 pm
Simple. SC has a high black population; Obama won that and held on to most of his 26% of the white vote (a mix of white liberals on the coast and Columbia and some rural/suburban whites), giving him about 44%.


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: PQG will pimp slap Coronavirus! on December 18, 2012, 11:25:45 pm
And the trend though slow is clear. If the current national alignment holds long enough, with Blacks having a higher birthrate than native Whites and northern White immigration to the Charleston area, South Carolina will become a swing state eventually.

Charleston county swung and trended against Obama.

Charleston County went from 61.9% White and 34.5% Black in the 2000 Census to 64.2% White and 29.8% Black in the 2010 Census.  The Black population of Charleston County actually went down from 107K to 104K.

True across the state, which went from 30% black to 27% black over the same period. Demographic changes will likely make SC more Republican over time.

That's really surprising SC must be one of the only states with a shrinkibg black population share (other than maybe some caused by hispanic growth). Why is thathhappening statewide there?


Title: Re: South Carolina
Post by: True Federalist on December 18, 2012, 11:50:44 pm
True across the state, which went from 30% black to 27% black over the same period. Demographic changes will likely make SC more Republican over time.

That's really surprising SC must be one of the only states with a shrinking black population share (other than maybe some caused by hispanic growth). Why is that happening statewide there?

Simple population diffusion.  We have an above average Black population, so just the ordinary moves of ordinary people would be expected to cause the percentage to shrink. It's accelerated by us having a net in-migration.