Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: Devils30 on December 10, 2012, 12:27:01 AM



Title: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Devils30 on December 10, 2012, 12:27:01 AM
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
@MittRomney won 222 Cong. Districts, @BarackObama 206.

Assuming Romney's 24 states give him 2 electoral votes for winning the state that would bring him to 270. Yeah, very democratic idea by the GOP if you lose the popular vote by 3.65% and counting! I still think that method likely fails under the equal protection clause. Violates one person one vote.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Joe Republic on December 10, 2012, 12:37:14 AM
Democrats also won the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives.  Voters wanted the Democrats this election, and instead they get another Republican majority in the House.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 10, 2012, 01:50:10 PM
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
@MittRomney won 222 Cong. Districts, @BarackObama 206.

Assuming Romney's 24 states give him 2 electoral votes for winning the state that would bring him to 270. Yeah, very democratic idea by the GOP if you lose the popular vote by 3.65% and counting! I still think that method likely fails under the equal protection clause. Violates one person one vote.

Depends on how many more Supreme Court appointments Obama gets IMO.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 10, 2012, 03:00:24 PM
Disgusting.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: memphis on December 10, 2012, 03:16:48 PM
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
@MittRomney won 222 Cong. Districts, @BarackObama 206.

Assuming Romney's 24 states give him 2 electoral votes for winning the state that would bring him to 270. Yeah, very democratic idea by the GOP if you lose the popular vote by 3.65% and counting! I still think that method likely fails under the equal protection clause. Violates one person one vote.
Apportionment of Electoral College votes (and for that matter, the Senate) is not subject to one man, one vote. The states can pick their electors any way they please. They could cancel the popular election and just pick homeless people off the streets if they want to.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: memphis on December 10, 2012, 03:20:42 PM
Democrats also won the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives.  Voters wanted the Democrats this election, and instead they get another Republican majority in the House.
^^^^^^^
They need to make this a key talking point. Even stupid people can understand why this is Inksed up. It would also further erode Boehner's legitimacy at a time when he is already facing an avalanche of trouble on all sides.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on December 10, 2012, 07:56:04 PM
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
@MittRomney won 222 Cong. Districts, @BarackObama 206.

Assuming Romney's 24 states give him 2 electoral votes for winning the state that would bring him to 270. Yeah, very democratic idea by the GOP if you lose the popular vote by 3.65% and counting! I still think that method likely fails under the equal protection clause. Violates one person one vote.
Apportionment of Electoral College votes (and for that matter, the Senate) is not subject to one man, one vote. The states can pick their electors any way they please. They could cancel the popular election and just pick homeless people off the streets if they want to.

Actually, a case could be made that if a State chooses to submit the selection of electors to a popular vote that it would be subject to one man, one vote, and thus by extension choosing by single member districts chosen just of the occasion.  After all, the 14th Amendment trumps Article II.

Quote from: Amendment XIV Section 2
But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime

As I recall, the one man one vote principle has been found to apply to State judicial elections in those States where judges are elected, so I see no reason why it would not apply to Electors.

However, no one with standing has chosen to bring such a suit.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: tmthforu94 on December 10, 2012, 08:01:46 PM
Democrats also won the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives.  Voters wanted the Democrats this election, and instead they get another Republican majority in the House.
^^^^^^^
They need to make this a key talking point. Even stupid people can understand why this is Inksed up. It would also further erode Boehner's legitimacy at a time when he is already facing an avalanche of trouble on all sides.
Are one-party general elections and unopposed races taken into account for this?


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: The Mikado on December 14, 2012, 03:48:44 PM
@Redistrict now saying "In my estimation, if every state awarded Electoral votes by Congressional district (a la ME & NE), Romney would have won, 276-262."



Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Badger on December 14, 2012, 05:23:47 PM
Democrats also won the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives.  Voters wanted the Democrats this election, and instead they get another Republican majority in the House.
^^^^^^^
They need to make this a key talking point. Even stupid people can understand why this is Inksed up. It would also further erode Boehner's legitimacy at a time when he is already facing an avalanche of trouble on all sides.
Are one-party general elections and unopposed races taken into account for this?

Doing so probably wouldn't matter much to the final numbers. Most unopposed democrats tend to be in overwhelmingly dem and heavily minority districts. Find some local republican to get on the ballot won't result in their getting more than 5-10% of the vote in places like detroit or east harlem. The number of unopposed republicans are fewer, but a random democrat on the ballot even in such heavily gop districts could be generally expected to carry 20-30% of the vote. In all, the unopposed races are likely a wash, and certainly not enough to overcome a a popular vote deficit of over half a million votes.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Vosem on December 16, 2012, 03:22:55 PM
Democrats also won the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives.  Voters wanted the Democrats this election, and instead they get another Republican majority in the House.
^^^^^^^
They need to make this a key talking point. Even stupid people can understand why this is Inksed up. It would also further erode Boehner's legitimacy at a time when he is already facing an avalanche of trouble on all sides.
Are one-party general elections and unopposed races taken into account for this?

Not only are they not, if you take them into account you likely get a Republican victory: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/08/1159272/-Dissecting-the-House-Popular-Vote


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: fezzyfestoon on December 16, 2012, 03:31:33 PM
Democrats also won the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives.  Voters wanted the Democrats this election, and instead they get another Republican majority in the House.

The joys of a two-winged, one-party state. Ensured gridlock, disenfranchisement, extreme voter disapproval for their own "elected" officials, and of course above all else in this circumstance, abuse of constituents via gerrymandering. DEMOCRACY


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Joe Republic on December 16, 2012, 11:29:22 PM
Democrats also won the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives.  Voters wanted the Democrats this election, and instead they get another Republican majority in the House.
^^^^^^^
They need to make this a key talking point. Even stupid people can understand why this is Inksed up. It would also further erode Boehner's legitimacy at a time when he is already facing an avalanche of trouble on all sides.
Are one-party general elections and unopposed races taken into account for this?

Not only are they not, if you take them into account you likely get a Republican victory: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/08/1159272/-Dissecting-the-House-Popular-Vote

Democratic-held seats that were either uncontested or otherwise did not feature a Republican on the ballot: 19

Republican-held seats that were either uncontested or otherwise did not feature a Democrat on the ballot: 25

That's more 'discounted' votes for the Democrats than the Republicans.


Title: Re: Romney would have won under the Congressional District method
Post by: Gary J on January 06, 2013, 04:44:09 PM
If every state had used the district method to allocate electoral votes, then candidate strategies would alter. Campaigning would focus on swing districts rather than swing states. I suspect that Obama's superior ground game would have ensured a victory.