Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: Golden665 on November 25, 2012, 08:48:38 am



Title: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Golden665 on November 25, 2012, 08:48:38 am
I'm guessing VA or FL...


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Nhoj on November 25, 2012, 09:21:37 am
FL and OH most likely.


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: politicallefty on November 25, 2012, 09:31:12 am
I think it's almost certainly Florida, especially considering the age of the electorate.


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 25, 2012, 11:19:06 am
I would actually go with OH or MI.  PA is probably next after them, then VA and FL.  FL has been pretty libertarian for a while now. 


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 25, 2012, 11:57:30 am
Virginia.


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: osideguy92 on November 25, 2012, 12:26:22 pm
Pennsylvania


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Unimog on November 25, 2012, 02:09:05 pm
Pennsylvania, Ohio and perhaps Wisconsin


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: memphis on November 25, 2012, 02:19:55 pm
Depends how you define "socially conservative." There are a lot of very traditional things about New England.  Much more so than the megachurch in the sunbelt suburb. 


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: giving birth to thunder on November 25, 2012, 02:46:14 pm
New Mexico


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on November 25, 2012, 03:04:30 pm
According to the CNN exit polls (ranked from most to least conservative):

Iowa 37%
New Mexico 37%
Florida 35%
Michigan 35%
Nevada 35%
Ohio 35%
Washington 35%
Wisconsin 35%
Colorado 33%
Minnesota 31%
Oregon 31%
Pennsylvania 31%
Virginia 31%
New Hampshire 30%
California 29%
Maine 27%
Illinois 26%
Maryland 26%
New Jersey 25%
New York 25%
Vermont 25%
Connecticut 24%
Massachusetts 21%

Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island: No exit polls







Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: PR on November 25, 2012, 03:09:02 pm
Depends how you define "socially conservative." There are a lot of very traditional things about New England.  Much more so than the megachurch in the sunbelt suburb. 

This.


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 25, 2012, 04:44:44 pm
According to the CNN exit polls (ranked from most to least conservative):

Iowa 37%
New Mexico 37%
Florida 35%
Michigan 35%
Nevada 35%
Ohio 35%
Washington 35%
Wisconsin 35%
Colorado 33%
Minnesota 31%
Oregon 31%
Pennsylvania 31%
Virginia 31%
New Hampshire 30%
California 29%
Maine 27%
Illinois 26%
Maryland 26%
New Jersey 25%
New York 25%
Vermont 25%
Connecticut 24%
Massachusetts 21%

Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island: No exit polls







The ones I bolded are very surprising to me.  There is a probable explanation for NM and NV (and to  a lesser extent, CO) involving Hispanic Democrats identifying as conservative.  But VA ended up in the same boat with OR and MN and left of WA?  Didn't coal country turn out hard for Romney this year?  Also, I would have expected the finance conservatives to have much more influence than that in CT.


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on November 25, 2012, 05:03:56 pm
Eastern Oregon and Washington are very much like Idaho or Wyoming.  Minnesota is a bit polarized, with a large number of uber-religious folks.

Excessive usage of the term "Conservative" by Southern politicians makes many in New England feel it's a code word for racism and fiscal conservatives in many cases may choose not to describe themselves as such.  Connecticut is IMO one of the most (if not the most) "colorblind" states in the sense that people are very much accepting of different cultures, ethnicities etc.
I would assume the same is true to some extent about Virginia, especially NoVa.  It's not "macaca Virginia" anymore.


Title: Re: Most socially conservative Obama state?
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 25, 2012, 06:50:40 pm
Depends how you define "socially conservative." There are a lot of very traditional things about New England.  Much more so than the megachurch in the sunbelt suburb. 

This.

Well that seems to be more about being pro-establishment vs. anti-establishment.  New England is very pro-establishment and likes its politicians liberal but not rocking the boat.  They will only tolerate populism when it is coming from the professor's lectern.  This may also explain why organized religion has held on better there than in other comparably liberal areas of the country.  Most of the West is aggressively anti-establishment and even Republican leaning areas make the Northeast look socially conservative in some ways.  Texas is complicated and it really comes down to whether you consider oil and gas establishment (probably, but it's not nearly as clear cut as finance).  California has become part of the establishment now but they don't want to admit it.