Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: mileslunn on November 23, 2012, 09:43:31 pm



Title: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: mileslunn on November 23, 2012, 09:43:31 pm
I know they gave the county by county breakdown, so I was wondering which state capitals of the ones below went for Romney vs. Obama.  I assumed Obama won everyone in the states where he won the county they are located in.  Any thoughts

Juneau, AK - Alaska does give county by county breakdown, but pretty sure Obama easily won this.
Salem, OR - Romney won both Marion and Polk County although considering they include some rural area, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Obama narrowly won Salem
Boise, ID - Ada County went for Romney but I know last time around Obama won Boise despite losing Ada County so it would be interesting if he won it or narrowly missed it.
Carson City, NV - Since the county and city are the same, Romney definitely won this.
Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points.  My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative
Phoenix, AZ - Pretty sure this went Obama as usually Phoenix goes Democrat, while the suburbs where 2/3 of the population live tend to go around 60% Republican.
Helena, MT - I am guessing Obama probably won this as Lewis & Clark County was 50-47 for Romney and I would suspect the rural parts went heavily for Romney, but would be good to get a confirmation on this one.
Cheyenne, WY - Almost positive Romney won this, maybe even with over 60%
Bismarck, ND - Definitely Romney, likely over 60%
Pierre, SD - Definitely Romney, likely over 60%
Lincoln, NE - Probably narrowly Obama as Romney barely won Lancaster County and the small part of the population outside of Lincoln probably went heavily for Romney.
Topeka, KS - I would think Obama as Romney only narrowly won Shawnee County and usually the suburbs and rural areas tend to go heavily GOPl
Oklahoma City, OK - If I had to make a guess, I would say Romney as the city straddles three counties although considering how massively the surrounding areas went for Romney, it is possible but unlikely Obama won here.
Jefferson City, MO - Considering how heavily Cole County went for Romney, I suspect he won this pretty handidly although probably not quite as massively as the county.
Springfield, IL - Hard to say as Springfield has a sizable although not huge African-American community thus why it would lean Obama, but at the same time it contains more than half the county's population so that means the suburbs and rural parts would have had to have gone massively Romney if Obama won Springfield.
Annapolis, MD - Almost positive Obama won here as Anne Arundel County barely went for Romney and looking at the precinct map in the Washington Post it looks like Obama won most of them in Annapolis never mind I suspect the more affluent suburbs of Baltimore is where Romney was probably strongest here.
Charleston, WV - Hard to say as although Romney won the county by more than 10%, I suspect the suburbs and rural areas are far more Republican as well as the city itself as 15% African-American and only 80% white so assuming the minority vote overwhelmingly went for Obama, and Obama got at least in the low 40s amongst whites due to the large civil service, then it is possible, but need confirmation here.

Any thoughts here.



Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Benj on November 23, 2012, 09:57:07 pm
I know they gave the county by county breakdown, so I was wondering which state capitals of the ones below went for Romney vs. Obama.  I assumed Obama won everyone in the states where he won the county they are located in.  Any thoughts

Juneau, AK - Alaska does give county by county breakdown, but pretty sure Obama easily won this.

Juneau is very D. Obama won it. (Obama also won all of the State Senate districts in and around Juneau.) Even when Alaska was voting much more Republican than it is now, Juneau was always the Democrats' stronghold in the state.

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Salem, OR - Romney won both Marion and Polk County although considering they include some rural area, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Obama narrowly won Salem

Salem was likely for Obama. The rural parts of Marion County are very conservative (the part in Polk County is tiny).

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Boise, ID - Ada County went for Romney but I know last time around Obama won Boise despite losing Ada County so it would be interesting if he won it or narrowly missed it.

I think probably Obama, but not certain.

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Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points.  My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative

Yup. SLC was like 70% Obama in 2008. He definitely won it.

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Phoenix, AZ - Pretty sure this went Obama as usually Phoenix goes Democrat, while the suburbs where 2/3 of the population live tend to go around 60% Republican.

Phoenix is pretty marginal, actually, but I think Kerry won it by a point or two (and Obama by about 5 in 2008), so Obama probably did in 2012 as well.

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Helena, MT - I am guessing Obama probably won this as Lewis & Clark County was 50-47 for Romney and I would suspect the rural parts went heavily for Romney, but would be good to get a confirmation on this one.

Sounds right to me.

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Lincoln, NE - Probably narrowly Obama as Romney barely won Lancaster County and the small part of the population outside of Lincoln probably went heavily for Romney.
Topeka, KS - I would think Obama as Romney only narrowly won Shawnee County and usually the suburbs and rural areas tend to go heavily GOPl

I think Obama won both handily in 2008, so likely won them again in 2012.

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Oklahoma City, OK - If I had to make a guess, I would say Romney as the city straddles three counties although considering how massively the surrounding areas went for Romney, it is possible but unlikely Obama won here.

Pretty sure this was McCain in 2008 and not close, so almost certainly Romney this year.

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Jefferson City, MO - Considering how heavily Cole County went for Romney, I suspect he won this pretty handidly although probably not quite as massively as the county.

Yeah, Jefferson City is the weird stand-out super-R capital city.

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Springfield, IL - Hard to say as Springfield has a sizable although not huge African-American community thus why it would lean Obama, but at the same time it contains more than half the county's population so that means the suburbs and rural parts would have had to have gone massively Romney if Obama won Springfield.

I would guess it voted for Obama; the rural parts of the county were around 65-70% McCain in 2008, and the suburbs are quite conservative. But hard to know for certain, especially given the big swing.

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Annapolis, MD - Almost positive Obama won here as Anne Arundel County barely went for Romney and looking at the precinct map in the Washington Post it looks like Obama won most of them in Annapolis never mind I suspect the more affluent suburbs of Baltimore is where Romney was probably strongest here.

Annapolis is very Democratic, probably 65% Obama or so. The conservatives in Anne Arundel County are in places like Lake Shore and Cape St. Claire (military and retired military) as well as the Baltimore suburbs.

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Charleston, WV - Hard to say as although Romney won the county by more than 10%, I suspect the suburbs and rural areas are far more Republican as well as the city itself as 15% African-American and only 80% white so assuming the minority vote overwhelmingly went for Obama, and Obama got at least in the low 40s amongst whites due to the large civil service, then it is possible, but need confirmation here.

Would like to know this one as well. IIRC, we don't know who won in 2008, either, though it was very likely Obama that year.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Jackson on November 23, 2012, 11:00:44 pm
Obama definitely won Charleston in 2008.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: mileslunn on November 24, 2012, 12:12:30 am
While still needs to verify, it looks Romney's wins were only Carson City, NV; Cheyenne, WY; Bismarck, ND; Pierre, SD; Oklahoma City, OK; and Jefferson City, MO.  Boise, ID and Charleston, WV and perhaps Springfield, IL we will have to wait until we get the precinct results.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 24, 2012, 08:32:27 pm
I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 24, 2012, 09:03:37 pm
FTR, Obama won Harrisburg quite handily. :P


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: memphis on November 26, 2012, 02:18:05 pm
Nashville is coextensive with Davidson County. An easy Obama win.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: mileslunn on November 26, 2012, 05:20:37 pm
I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now.

Romney definitely won Bismarck, Cheyenne, and Jefferson City.  I also think Charleston, WV is a toss-up but beyond that it looks like Obama won most of them.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: RBH on November 26, 2012, 05:24:31 pm
I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now.

Romney definitely won Bismarck, Cheyenne, and Jefferson City.  I also think Charleston, WV is a toss-up but beyond that it looks like Obama won most of them.

Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 26, 2012, 05:43:36 pm
Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.

I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states).

Also, I'm almost absolutely certain Obama won Charleston WV.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: CountryRoads on November 26, 2012, 06:04:40 pm
Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.

I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states).

Also, I'm almost absolutely certain Obama won Charleston WV.

No. Just stop.

It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia. My county (Monongalia) voted 53%-43% Romney. I'm somewhat confident that Romney won Charleston by like 2% considering that my county went from Obama in 2008 to heavy Romney in 2012. I live in a collegetown.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 26, 2012, 06:27:51 pm
It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia.

Romney won the county by less than 12%. The city has only 50,000 peeps but the county has almost 200,000.

By comparison, Romney managed to win my home county (Campbell KY) by 20%, but Obama won the largest central city (Newport) pretty handily. The city has 20,000 while the county has 90,000. By that standard, Obama probably won Charleston by about 8%.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Biden/Abrams Voter on November 26, 2012, 08:48:44 pm
It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia.

Romney won the county by less than 12%. The city has only 50,000 peeps but the county has almost 200,000.

By comparison, Romney managed to win my home county (Campbell KY) by 20%, but Obama won the largest central city (Newport) pretty handily. The city has 20,000 while the county has 90,000. By that standard, Obama probably won Charleston by about 8%.

Obama won Charleston, WV in 2008 with 58.2% of the vote versus McCain's 41.0%. Even if the city swung to Romney by as much as Kanawha County did, that would still leave Obama winning Charleston by something like 52/47. I find it hard to believe that the city of Charleston swung to Romney more than the overall county.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: RBH on November 26, 2012, 11:45:05 pm
Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin.

I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states).

I did the math by adding up the precincts here: http://www.colecounty.org/clerk/files/11-06-12_Abs.pdf


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: mileslunn on November 27, 2012, 01:06:54 am
So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;

Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close.

Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great.

It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 28, 2012, 01:51:07 pm
Also, Kanawha County contains Sissonville, the town where those Nazis kept attacking the girl because she opposed the war. Sissonville is one of very few places in America that truly needs to have the federal government come in and take over the town.

I bet Sissonville was 90% for Romney. That accounts for much of his margin countywide.


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: MaxQue on November 28, 2012, 03:31:33 pm
Also, Kanawha County contains Sissonville, the town where those Nazis kept attacking the girl because she opposed the war. Sissonville is one of very few places in America that truly needs to have the federal government come in and take over the town.

I bet Sissonville was 90% for Romney. That accounts for much of his margin countywide.

Again, you're wrong.
1. Sissonville is in 70-75% Romney.
2. It has 4.000 inhabitants, which is less than than the half of Romney margin in the whole county (9.000 votes)


Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 28, 2012, 03:33:37 pm
1. Sissonville is in 70-75% Romney.

Wow, what a liberal town - not!