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Title: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: mileslunn on November 23, 2012, 09:43:31 PM I know they gave the county by county breakdown, so I was wondering which state capitals of the ones below went for Romney vs. Obama. I assumed Obama won everyone in the states where he won the county they are located in. Any thoughts
Juneau, AK - Alaska does give county by county breakdown, but pretty sure Obama easily won this. Salem, OR - Romney won both Marion and Polk County although considering they include some rural area, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Obama narrowly won Salem Boise, ID - Ada County went for Romney but I know last time around Obama won Boise despite losing Ada County so it would be interesting if he won it or narrowly missed it. Carson City, NV - Since the county and city are the same, Romney definitely won this. Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points. My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative Phoenix, AZ - Pretty sure this went Obama as usually Phoenix goes Democrat, while the suburbs where 2/3 of the population live tend to go around 60% Republican. Helena, MT - I am guessing Obama probably won this as Lewis & Clark County was 50-47 for Romney and I would suspect the rural parts went heavily for Romney, but would be good to get a confirmation on this one. Cheyenne, WY - Almost positive Romney won this, maybe even with over 60% Bismarck, ND - Definitely Romney, likely over 60% Pierre, SD - Definitely Romney, likely over 60% Lincoln, NE - Probably narrowly Obama as Romney barely won Lancaster County and the small part of the population outside of Lincoln probably went heavily for Romney. Topeka, KS - I would think Obama as Romney only narrowly won Shawnee County and usually the suburbs and rural areas tend to go heavily GOPl Oklahoma City, OK - If I had to make a guess, I would say Romney as the city straddles three counties although considering how massively the surrounding areas went for Romney, it is possible but unlikely Obama won here. Jefferson City, MO - Considering how heavily Cole County went for Romney, I suspect he won this pretty handidly although probably not quite as massively as the county. Springfield, IL - Hard to say as Springfield has a sizable although not huge African-American community thus why it would lean Obama, but at the same time it contains more than half the county's population so that means the suburbs and rural parts would have had to have gone massively Romney if Obama won Springfield. Annapolis, MD - Almost positive Obama won here as Anne Arundel County barely went for Romney and looking at the precinct map in the Washington Post it looks like Obama won most of them in Annapolis never mind I suspect the more affluent suburbs of Baltimore is where Romney was probably strongest here. Charleston, WV - Hard to say as although Romney won the county by more than 10%, I suspect the suburbs and rural areas are far more Republican as well as the city itself as 15% African-American and only 80% white so assuming the minority vote overwhelmingly went for Obama, and Obama got at least in the low 40s amongst whites due to the large civil service, then it is possible, but need confirmation here. Any thoughts here. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Benj on November 23, 2012, 09:57:07 PM I know they gave the county by county breakdown, so I was wondering which state capitals of the ones below went for Romney vs. Obama. I assumed Obama won everyone in the states where he won the county they are located in. Any thoughts Juneau, AK - Alaska does give county by county breakdown, but pretty sure Obama easily won this. Juneau is very D. Obama won it. (Obama also won all of the State Senate districts in and around Juneau.) Even when Alaska was voting much more Republican than it is now, Juneau was always the Democrats' stronghold in the state. Quote Salem, OR - Romney won both Marion and Polk County although considering they include some rural area, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Obama narrowly won Salem Salem was likely for Obama. The rural parts of Marion County are very conservative (the part in Polk County is tiny). Quote Boise, ID - Ada County went for Romney but I know last time around Obama won Boise despite losing Ada County so it would be interesting if he won it or narrowly missed it. I think probably Obama, but not certain. Quote Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points. My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative Yup. SLC was like 70% Obama in 2008. He definitely won it. Quote Phoenix, AZ - Pretty sure this went Obama as usually Phoenix goes Democrat, while the suburbs where 2/3 of the population live tend to go around 60% Republican. Phoenix is pretty marginal, actually, but I think Kerry won it by a point or two (and Obama by about 5 in 2008), so Obama probably did in 2012 as well. Quote Helena, MT - I am guessing Obama probably won this as Lewis & Clark County was 50-47 for Romney and I would suspect the rural parts went heavily for Romney, but would be good to get a confirmation on this one. Sounds right to me. Quote Lincoln, NE - Probably narrowly Obama as Romney barely won Lancaster County and the small part of the population outside of Lincoln probably went heavily for Romney. Topeka, KS - I would think Obama as Romney only narrowly won Shawnee County and usually the suburbs and rural areas tend to go heavily GOPl I think Obama won both handily in 2008, so likely won them again in 2012. Quote Oklahoma City, OK - If I had to make a guess, I would say Romney as the city straddles three counties although considering how massively the surrounding areas went for Romney, it is possible but unlikely Obama won here. Pretty sure this was McCain in 2008 and not close, so almost certainly Romney this year. Quote Jefferson City, MO - Considering how heavily Cole County went for Romney, I suspect he won this pretty handidly although probably not quite as massively as the county. Yeah, Jefferson City is the weird stand-out super-R capital city. Quote Springfield, IL - Hard to say as Springfield has a sizable although not huge African-American community thus why it would lean Obama, but at the same time it contains more than half the county's population so that means the suburbs and rural parts would have had to have gone massively Romney if Obama won Springfield. I would guess it voted for Obama; the rural parts of the county were around 65-70% McCain in 2008, and the suburbs are quite conservative. But hard to know for certain, especially given the big swing. Quote Annapolis, MD - Almost positive Obama won here as Anne Arundel County barely went for Romney and looking at the precinct map in the Washington Post it looks like Obama won most of them in Annapolis never mind I suspect the more affluent suburbs of Baltimore is where Romney was probably strongest here. Annapolis is very Democratic, probably 65% Obama or so. The conservatives in Anne Arundel County are in places like Lake Shore and Cape St. Claire (military and retired military) as well as the Baltimore suburbs. Quote Charleston, WV - Hard to say as although Romney won the county by more than 10%, I suspect the suburbs and rural areas are far more Republican as well as the city itself as 15% African-American and only 80% white so assuming the minority vote overwhelmingly went for Obama, and Obama got at least in the low 40s amongst whites due to the large civil service, then it is possible, but need confirmation here. Would like to know this one as well. IIRC, we don't know who won in 2008, either, though it was very likely Obama that year. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Jackson on November 23, 2012, 11:00:44 PM Obama definitely won Charleston in 2008.
Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: mileslunn on November 24, 2012, 12:12:30 AM While still needs to verify, it looks Romney's wins were only Carson City, NV; Cheyenne, WY; Bismarck, ND; Pierre, SD; Oklahoma City, OK; and Jefferson City, MO. Boise, ID and Charleston, WV and perhaps Springfield, IL we will have to wait until we get the precinct results.
Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 24, 2012, 08:32:27 PM I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now.
Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on November 24, 2012, 09:03:37 PM FTR, Obama won Harrisburg quite handily. :P
Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: memphis on November 26, 2012, 02:18:05 PM Nashville is coextensive with Davidson County. An easy Obama win.
Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: mileslunn on November 26, 2012, 05:20:37 PM I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now. Romney definitely won Bismarck, Cheyenne, and Jefferson City. I also think Charleston, WV is a toss-up but beyond that it looks like Obama won most of them. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: RBH on November 26, 2012, 05:24:31 PM I'll bet you anything Obama won all those except Carson City, Oklahoma City, and Pierre. The urban/rural split is that wide now. Romney definitely won Bismarck, Cheyenne, and Jefferson City. I also think Charleston, WV is a toss-up but beyond that it looks like Obama won most of them. Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 26, 2012, 05:43:36 PM Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin. I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states). Also, I'm almost absolutely certain Obama won Charleston WV. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: CountryRoads on November 26, 2012, 06:04:40 PM Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin. I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states). Also, I'm almost absolutely certain Obama won Charleston WV. No. Just stop. It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia. My county (Monongalia) voted 53%-43% Romney. I'm somewhat confident that Romney won Charleston by like 2% considering that my county went from Obama in 2008 to heavy Romney in 2012. I live in a collegetown. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 26, 2012, 06:27:51 PM It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia. Romney won the county by less than 12%. The city has only 50,000 peeps but the county has almost 200,000. By comparison, Romney managed to win my home county (Campbell KY) by 20%, but Obama won the largest central city (Newport) pretty handily. The city has 20,000 while the county has 90,000. By that standard, Obama probably won Charleston by about 8%. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Adam Griffin on November 26, 2012, 08:48:44 PM It's not "certain" that Obama won Charleston. I'd know, I live in West Virginia. Romney won the county by less than 12%. The city has only 50,000 peeps but the county has almost 200,000. By comparison, Romney managed to win my home county (Campbell KY) by 20%, but Obama won the largest central city (Newport) pretty handily. The city has 20,000 while the county has 90,000. By that standard, Obama probably won Charleston by about 8%. Obama won Charleston, WV in 2008 with 58.2% of the vote versus McCain's 41.0%. Even if the city swung to Romney by as much as Kanawha County did, that would still leave Obama winning Charleston by something like 52/47. I find it hard to believe that the city of Charleston swung to Romney more than the overall county. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: RBH on November 26, 2012, 11:45:05 PM Romney won Jeff City by a 58.9-39.4 margin. I'm a little skeptical that Romney would win a central city as big as Jefferson City by 20 points (at least in most states). I did the math by adding up the precincts here: http://www.colecounty.org/clerk/files/11-06-12_Abs.pdf Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: mileslunn on November 27, 2012, 01:06:54 AM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won;
Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 28, 2012, 01:51:07 PM Also, Kanawha County contains Sissonville, the town where those Nazis kept attacking the girl because she opposed the war. Sissonville is one of very few places in America that truly needs to have the federal government come in and take over the town.
I bet Sissonville was 90% for Romney. That accounts for much of his margin countywide. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: MaxQue on November 28, 2012, 03:31:33 PM Also, Kanawha County contains Sissonville, the town where those Nazis kept attacking the girl because she opposed the war. Sissonville is one of very few places in America that truly needs to have the federal government come in and take over the town. I bet Sissonville was 90% for Romney. That accounts for much of his margin countywide. Again, you're wrong. 1. Sissonville is in 70-75% Romney. 2. It has 4.000 inhabitants, which is less than than the half of Romney margin in the whole county (9.000 votes) Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on November 28, 2012, 03:33:37 PM 1. Sissonville is in 70-75% Romney. Wow, what a liberal town - not! Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Calthrina950 on July 18, 2021, 08:10:28 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Schiff for Senate on October 01, 2021, 11:55:13 AM Quote Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points. My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative Yup. SLC was like 70% Obama in 2008. He definitely won it. In 2012, UT, particularly Northern UT (where SLC is) swung hard to Romney because of muh Mormonism. Salt Lake County went red by a good margin - over 20 points. I don't think it's at all impossible Romney won Salt Lake City, though he might've lost given how big it is. And that 70% statistic seems like an exaggeration, to be honest. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: TDAS04 on October 01, 2021, 07:12:11 PM Quote Salt Lake City, UT - Pretty sure Obama won this as the results in Salt Lake County were similiar to 2004 when Kerry when Salt Lake City by over 15 points but lost the county by around 20 points. My understanding is the city itself is quite a bit more liberal than the suburbs which are generally very conservative Yup. SLC was like 70% Obama in 2008. He definitely won it. In 2012, UT, particularly Northern UT (where SLC is) swung hard to Romney because of muh Mormonism. Salt Lake County went red by a good margin - over 20 points. I don't think it's at all impossible Romney won Salt Lake City, though he might've lost given how big it is. And that 70% statistic seems like an exaggeration, to be honest. I'm pretty sure SLC proper voted for Obama twice (and even for Kerry). SLC itself is a fairly liberal city. It's the suburbs that shift the county right. The city is only a sliver of the county. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 03, 2021, 03:41:25 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities. Salem, OR was definitely Obama in 2012. I ran the numbers for the largest cities in OR for 2012 and 2016 a bit ago (although don't have the exact post I made some years back at my fingertips, but did save a text file to my notepad which I was easily able to search on my PC (There are a few which I didn't calculate at the time, although might have the precinct data-sets floating around in my library somewhere: Quote So here are the 2016 Presidential GE Results for the 100 largest cities in Oregon, by order of population.... 1.) Portland- 594.7k---- 2016: (78-13 D); 2012: (79-16 D) +2% Dem Swing 2.) Eugene- 157.3k--- 2016: (66-23 D); 2012: (69-26 D) +0% Swing 3.) Salem- 156.9k--- 2016: (50-39 D); 2012: (54-42 D) +1% Rep Swing 4.) Gresham- 107.2k--- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (55-42 D) +3% Rep Swing 5.) Hillsboro- 107.2k--- 2016: (55-32 D); 2012: (56-39 D) +6% Dem Swing 6.) Beaverton- 91.4k----2016: (63-25 D)2012: (62-34 D) +10% Dem Swing 7.) Bend---- 87.1k--- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (53-44 D) +7 % Dem Swing 8.) Medford-- 75.9k--- 2016: (39-51 R); 2012: (43-54 R) +1% Rep Swing 9.) Springfield--59.7k-- 2016: (47-40 D); 2012: (55-39 D) +9% Rep Swing 10.) Corvallis-- 54.7k-- 2016: (70-18 D); 2012: (69-25 D) +8 % Dem Swin 11.) Albany---- 50.8k-- 2016: (40-47 R); 2012: (46-49 R) +4% Rep Swing 12.) Tigard--- 49.0k-- 2016: (58-30 D); 2012: (56-40 D) +12% Dem Swing 13.) Lake Oswego- 37.0k- 2016: (63-26 D); 2012: (57-41 D) +20% Dem Swing 14.) Keizer--- 36.7k--- 2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (45-53 R) +2% Rep Swing 15.) Grants Pass-- 34.5k- 2016: (32-58 R); 2012: (39-57 R) +8 % Rep Swing 16.) McMinville-- 32.2k--- 2016: (47-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D) +0% Swing 17.) Oregon City- 33.1k- 2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D) +2% Rep Swing 18.) Redmond-- 26.2k-- 2016: (31-58 R); 2012: (37-59 R) +5% Rep Swing 19.) Tualatin-- 26.4k-- 2016: (53-34 D); 2012: (51-46 D) +14% Dem Swing 20.) West Linn- 25.5k-- 2016: (60-29 D); 2012: (55-44 D) +20% Dem Swing 21.) Woodburn--- 24.1k-- 2016: (51-40 D); 2012: (52-45 D) +4% Dem Swing 22.) Newberg--- 22.1k--- 2016: (40-45 R); 2012: (43-53 R) +5% Dem Swing 23.) Roseburg-- 21.2k--- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (41-55 R) +7% Rep Swing 24.) Forest Grove-- 21.6k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (53-41 D) +4% Rep Swing 25.) Klamath Falls--- TBD 26.) Milwaukie- 20.4k- 2016: (60-28 D); 2012: (65-32 D) +1% Rep Swing 27.) Ashland--- 20.4k-- 2016: (79-12 D); 2012: (81-14 D) +0% Swing 28.) Wilsonville- 19.6k- 2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (48-48* R) +12% Dem Swing 29.) Sherwood--- 19.4k-- 2016: (47-39 D); 2012: (47-50 R) +11% Dem Swing 30.) Central Point--- 17.3k-- 2016: (28-63 R); 2012: (34-63 R) +6% Rep Swing 31.) Hermistion--- TBD 32.) Pendleton--- TBD 33.) Coos Bay--- 16.0k- 2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (52-44 D) +17% Rep Swing 34.) Troutdale--- 16k- 2016: (44-43 D); 2012: (51-46 D) +4% Rep Swing 35.) Canby---- 16.6k- 2016: (40-49 R); 2012: (42-55 R) +4% Dem Swing 36.) Lebanon- 15.6k-- 2016: (31-54 R); 2012: (42-53 R) +12% Rep Swing 37.) Dallas--- 14.7k-- 2016: (34-55 R); 2012: (43-53 R) +11% Rep Swing 38.) Happy Valley- 14.9k- 2016: (49-41 D); 2012: (46-53 R) +15% Dem Swing 39.) The Dalles-- 15.3k-- 2016: (42-45 R); 2012: (50-47 D) +6% Rep Swing 40.) La Grande--- TBD 41.) St Helens--- 12.9k-- 2016: (39-47 R); 2012: (54-41 D) +21% Rep Swing 42.) Cornelius- 12.0k-- 2016: (52-36 D); 2012: (54-41 D) +5% Dem Swing 43.) Gladstone- 11.6k-- 2016: (49-39 D); 2012: (54-43 D) +1% Rep Swing 44.) Ontario---- TBD 45.) Damascus--- ??? Will need to look into further. 46.) Newport---- 10.1k-- 2016: (55-35 D); 2012: (62-35 D) +7% Rep Swing 47.) Baker City- TBD 48.) North Bend--- 9.6k--- 2016: (37-52 R); 2012: (49-48 D) +16% Rep Swing 49.) Cottage Grove--- 10k-- 2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (51-46 D) +15% Rep Swing 50.) Sandy-- 9.7k- 2016: (36-52 R); 2012: (46-50 R) +12% Rep Swing 51.) Monmouth--9.5k-- 2016: (52-34 D); 2012: (53-42 D) +7% Dem Swing 52.) Astoria-- 9.5k-- 2016: (59-29 D); 2012: (64-31 D) +3% Rep Swing 53.) Prineville---- TBD 54.) Silverton--- 9.3k--- 2016: (45-42 D); 2012: (51-46 D) +2% Rep Swing 55.) Sweet Home--9.0k-- 2016: (26-63 R); 2012: (36-60 R) +13% Rep Swing 56.) Fairview--- 9.0k--- 2016: (52-38 D); 2012: (57-39 D) +4% Rep Swing 57.) Independence--9.5k--- 2016: (48-39 D); 2012: (54-40 D) +5% Rep Swing 58.) Eagle Point--- 8.5k--- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (31-67 R) +10% Rep Swing 59.) Florence--- 8.5k-- 2016: (45-46 R); 2012: (50-46 D) +5% Rep Swing 60.) Molalla--- 8.2k--- 2016: (28-59 R); 2012: (37-59 R) +9% Rep Swing 61.) Lincoln City--- 7.9k-- 2016: (48-41 D); 2012: (59-37 D) +15% Rep Swing 62.) Sutherlin--- 7.8k-- 2016: (26-65 R); 2012: (34-62 R) +11% Rep Swing 63.) Stayton--- 3.4k-- 2016: (30-58 R); 2012: (37-60 R) +5% Rep Swing 64.) Hood River--- 7.2k-- 2016: (69-22 D); 2012: (69-27 D) +5% Dem Swing 65.) Milton-Freewater--- TBD 66.) Umatilla--- TBD 67.) Scappoose- 6.6k--- 2016: (44-42 D); 2012: (53-43 D) +8% Rep Swing 68.) Seaside--- 6.5k-- 2016: (50-38 D); 2012: (58-38 D) +8% Rep Swing 69.) Brookings-- 6.3k-- 2016: (31-59 R); 2012: (38-58 R) +8% Rep Swing 70.) Sheridan-- 6.1k-- 2016: (32-57 R); 2012: (43-52 R) +16% Rep Swing 71.) Talent-- 6.1k-- 2016: (62-27 D); 2012: (65-31 D) +1% Dem Swing 72.) Madras---- 6.1k-- 2016: (35-51 R); 2012: (46-50 R) +22% Rep Swing 73.) Junction City--- 5.5k--- 2016: (33-55 R); 2012: (42-52 R) +12% Rep Swing 74.) Winston--- 5.4k-- 2016: (25-66 R); 2012: (35-62 R) +14% Rep Swing 75.) Creswell--- 5.0k-- 2016: (35-53 R); 2016: (44-52 R) +10% Rep Swing 76.) Warrenton- 5.1k--- 2016: (37-51 R); 2012: (47-49 R) +12% Rep Swing 77.) Tillamook--- 4.9k-- 2016: (38-47 R); 2012: (50-46 D) +11% Rep Swing 78.) Philomath--- 4.6k- 2016: (48-36 D); 2012: (56-38 D) +6% Rep Swing 79.) Veneta----- 4.6k-- 2016: (35-53 R); 2012: (45-50 R) +13% Rep Swing 80.) Phoenix--- 4.6k-- 2016: (48-43 D); 2012: (53-44 D) +4% Rep Swing 81.) Reedsport-- 4.2k--- 2016: (35-56 R); 2012: (45-52 R) +14% Rep Swing 82.) Wood Village- 3.9k-- 2016: (50-37 D); 2012: (60-36 D) +11% Rep Swing 83.) Coquille--- 3.9k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (39-56 R) +19% Rep Swing 84.) LaFayette--- Unknown. Split Precinct??? 85.) Aumsville- 3.7k-- 2016: (24-64 R); 2012: (31-65) +6% Rep Swing 86.) Harrisburg--- 3.6k-- 2016: (27-63 R); 2012: (35-62 R) +9% Rep Swing 87.) Toledo--- 3.5k--- 2016: (38-49 R); 2012: (53-42 D) +22% Rep Swing 88.) Myrtle Creek- 3.4k-- 2016: (23-69 R); 2012: (34-63 R) +17% Rep Swing 89.) Mount Angel- 3.4k---2016: (38-50 R); 2012: (43-55 R) +0% Swing 90.) Nyssa----TBD 91.) Boardman-- TBD 92.) Oakridge--- 3.2k--- 2016: (39-48 R); 2012: (50-42 D) +17% Rep Swing 93.) Hubbard-- 3.2k-- 2016: (39-49 R); 2012: (43-53 R) +0% Swing 94.) Dundee--- 3.2k--- 2016: (42-45 R); 2012: (47-49 R) +1% Rep Swing 95.) King City-- 3.2k-- 2016: (57-36 D); 2012: (57-40 D) +4% Dem Swing 96.) Jefferson--- 3.1k-- 2016: (28-60 R); 2012: (37-59 R) +10 Rep Swing 97.) Bandon--- 3.1k... 2016: (46-45 D); 2012: (52-43 D) +8% Rep Swing 98.) Shady Cove 99.) Burns-- TBD 100.) Jacksonville--- 2.8k--- 2016: (47-45 D); 2012: (45-53 R) +10% Dem Swing Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 03, 2021, 05:52:15 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities. Cheyenne, Wyoming was clearly Romney in 2012. There are still (61) precincts in the County just like there were in 2012 and I am assuming there were no major precinct boundary changes. Using the same precinct coding I used in '16 and '20 for Cheyenne: 2012: Romney- 14,359 (55.6%); Obama- 10,563 (40.9%) TV-25,814 +14.7% R 2016: Trump- 14,687 (54.9%); Obama- 8,853 (33.1%) TV-26,754 +21.8% R (+7.1R Swing) 2020: Trump- 16,102 (55.8%); Biden- 11,423 (39.6%) TV-28,835 +16.2%R (+5.6D Swing) Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 04, 2021, 09:32:34 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. I wonder if the 2012 results in these state capitols were ever determined or calculated. Of the cities I bolded, I would assume Obama won all three, thus leaving Romney with five state capitols. Biden actually won Marion County (Salem), Maricopa County (Phoenix), Shawnee County (Topeka), and Anne Arundel County (Annapolis) last year, all of which Obama lost twice, so he almost certainly outperformed Obama in these cities. So I thought it might be interesting to run the numbers for Boise, Idaho for the 2012 Presidential election since this thread caught my eye the other day and I realized that I hadn't run the data for most of the places on the list. Obama clearly won Boise Idaho in 2012 by significant margins. Methodology standard--- here I took the 2015 Mayoral precinct report from Boise and matched it against 2012 Precincts and municipal results from other places and tried to screen out the small number of obvious tiny Boise splits.... there were a few where Boise & Eagle City overlapped and by default coded those for the largest of the two vote totals. For precinct coding I used the same coding by city between '12 and '16, so slightly different than my initial 2016 GE PRES calculations previously posted elsewhere. (Precinct 2107 was reassigned from Meridian to Boise in my math). For 2020 precinct coding gets slightly trickier, so I used the 2019 Boise Mayoral precinct coding combined with looking at the Ada County Precinct Map. New precincts added in Boise were pretty much A/B splits, and the rest of the new precincts were either in unincorporated areas SW of Boise OR in the fast growing suburb / exurb of Meridian. NOTE: 2012 & 2016 GE PRES results do NOT include Write-In Ballots. 2020 GE PRES results DO include Write-In Ballots. Tried to be consistent with my 2012-2020 format, which I used for Cheyenne: 2012: Romney- 44,161 (44.5%); Obama- 51,391 (51.8%) TV-99,295 +7.3% D 2016: Trump- 38,667 (37.4%); Clinton- 50,626 (49.0%) TV-103,299 +11.6% D (+4.3D Swing) 2020: Trump- 46,954 (37.2%); Biden- 74,036 (58.6%) TV-126,257 +21.4%D (+9.8D Swing) [/quote] It is also patently clear that the overwhelming majority of "New Voters" in Boise benefited Biden between the '16 and '20 GEs, and not just 3rd Party Voters in '16 (LBT, GRN, & McMullin) disproportionately benefiting the DEMs. Meanwhile my precinct coding in '16 and '18 might have slightly different results, but this is still illustrative of some of the shifts in Boise in a few down-ballot races over that time. (Haven't run the 2020 numbers and adjusted precinct coding data, but it gives an idea of how rapidly DEM the City of Boise has moved between even just '16>'20). () Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 07, 2021, 09:02:26 PM Anybody interested in me spending potentially an hour or two out of my life to provide additional details pls post, since really 2012 GE isn't at the top of my radar right now, but hate to waste my time if there is little or no interest.
Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Schiff for Senate on October 07, 2021, 10:49:31 PM Anybody interested in me spending potentially an hour or two out of my life to provide additional details pls post, since really 2012 GE isn't at the top of my radar right now, but hate to waste my time if there is little or no interest. I found a better way to find out how state capitols vote: https://www.bestplaces.net/. It's a free online site where you can research cities, and are provided with a variety of information, statistics, and details, including politics. They then tell you if the city went Republican or Democratic in the last 6 presidential elections and if the margin was in the single digits or in the double digits. It's not as detailed as your statistics, of course, but you don't need to waste hours researching their exact voting patterns. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Schiff for Senate on October 07, 2021, 11:07:02 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins. Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins. As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits. For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney. Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Schiff for Senate on October 07, 2021, 11:09:00 PM So I thought it might be interesting to run the numbers for Boise, Idaho for the 2012 Presidential election since this thread caught my eye the other day and I realized that I hadn't run the data for most of the places on the list. Obama clearly won Boise Idaho in 2012 by significant margins. Methodology standard--- here I took the 2015 Mayoral precinct report from Boise and matched it against 2012 Precincts and municipal results from other places and tried to screen out the small number of obvious tiny Boise splits.... there were a few where Boise & Eagle City overlapped and by default coded those for the largest of the two vote totals. For precinct coding I used the same coding by city between '12 and '16, so slightly different than my initial 2016 GE PRES calculations previously posted elsewhere. (Precinct 2107 was reassigned from Meridian to Boise in my math). For 2020 precinct coding gets slightly trickier, so I used the 2019 Boise Mayoral precinct coding combined with looking at the Ada County Precinct Map. New precincts added in Boise were pretty much A/B splits, and the rest of the new precincts were either in unincorporated areas SW of Boise OR in the fast growing suburb / exurb of Meridian. NOTE: 2012 & 2016 GE PRES results do NOT include Write-In Ballots. 2020 GE PRES results DO include Write-In Ballots. Tried to be consistent with my 2012-2020 format, which I used for Cheyenne: 2012: Romney- 44,161 (44.5%); Obama- 51,391 (51.8%) TV-99,295 +7.3% D 2016: Trump- 38,667 (37.4%); Clinton- 50,626 (49.0%) TV-103,299 +11.6% D (+4.3D Swing) 2020: Trump- 46,954 (37.2%); Biden- 74,036 (58.6%) TV-126,257 +21.4%D (+9.8D Swing) It is also patently clear that the overwhelming majority of "New Voters" in Boise benefited Biden between the '16 and '20 GEs, and not just 3rd Party Voters in '16 (LBT, GRN, & McMullin) disproportionately benefiting the DEMs. Meanwhile my precinct coding in '16 and '18 might have slightly different results, but this is still illustrative of some of the shifts in Boise in a few down-ballot races over that time. (Haven't run the 2020 numbers and adjusted precinct coding data, but it gives an idea of how rapidly DEM the City of Boise has moved between even just '16>'20). () Sorry, but Boise supported Romney...and by double digits: https://www.bestplaces.net/voting/city/idaho/boise Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Schiff for Senate on October 07, 2021, 11:09:52 PM I think the takeaway from this thread is that we shouldn't assume all state capitols are automatically liberal, especially not in 2012 and not if the county they're in votes very Republican.
Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 07, 2021, 11:46:01 PM So I thought it might be interesting to run the numbers for Boise, Idaho for the 2012 Presidential election since this thread caught my eye the other day and I realized that I hadn't run the data for most of the places on the list. Obama clearly won Boise Idaho in 2012 by significant margins. Methodology standard--- here I took the 2015 Mayoral precinct report from Boise and matched it against 2012 Precincts and municipal results from other places and tried to screen out the small number of obvious tiny Boise splits.... there were a few where Boise & Eagle City overlapped and by default coded those for the largest of the two vote totals. For precinct coding I used the same coding by city between '12 and '16, so slightly different than my initial 2016 GE PRES calculations previously posted elsewhere. (Precinct 2107 was reassigned from Meridian to Boise in my math). For 2020 precinct coding gets slightly trickier, so I used the 2019 Boise Mayoral precinct coding combined with looking at the Ada County Precinct Map. New precincts added in Boise were pretty much A/B splits, and the rest of the new precincts were either in unincorporated areas SW of Boise OR in the fast growing suburb / exurb of Meridian. NOTE: 2012 & 2016 GE PRES results do NOT include Write-In Ballots. 2020 GE PRES results DO include Write-In Ballots. Tried to be consistent with my 2012-2020 format, which I used for Cheyenne: 2012: Romney- 44,161 (44.5%); Obama- 51,391 (51.8%) TV-99,295 +7.3% D 2016: Trump- 38,667 (37.4%); Clinton- 50,626 (49.0%) TV-103,299 +11.6% D (+4.3D Swing) 2020: Trump- 46,954 (37.2%); Biden- 74,036 (58.6%) TV-126,257 +21.4%D (+9.8D Swing) It is also patently clear that the overwhelming majority of "New Voters" in Boise benefited Biden between the '16 and '20 GEs, and not just 3rd Party Voters in '16 (LBT, GRN, & McMullin) disproportionately benefiting the DEMs. Meanwhile my precinct coding in '16 and '18 might have slightly different results, but this is still illustrative of some of the shifts in Boise in a few down-ballot races over that time. (Haven't run the 2020 numbers and adjusted precinct coding data, but it gives an idea of how rapidly DEM the City of Boise has moved between even just '16>'20). () Sorry, but Boise supported Romney...and by double digits: https://www.bestplaces.net/voting/city/idaho/boise I am assuming this is a joke post, since anybody who believes that bestplaces.net is a legitimate source of election returns is either woefully ignorant OR deliberately to use a British term "taking the piss". No time nor energy for deliberate trolling when it comes to election results. Anybody who wants to double-check the 2012 GE PRES Election numbers can go directly to the original source: https://adacounty.id.gov/elections/election-results/#2012_Elections Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 07, 2021, 11:55:55 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins. Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins. As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits. For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney. Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well. Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term). ;) () Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Schiff for Senate on October 08, 2021, 11:28:02 AM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins. Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins. As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits. For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney. Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well. Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term). ;) () No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 08, 2021, 07:37:07 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins. Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins. As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits. For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney. Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well. Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term). ;) () No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney. Fair enough... you seem like a nice person and apologies if I might have come across as a bit sarcastic (Which was not my intent). There are a decent number of posters on Atlas, many of whom have been posting here for years who have been collecting and dissecting precinct results and in many cases consolidating to the municipal level. For example, I first started collecting and analyzing precinct results for Oregon shortly after the 1988 General Election and combined that data with precinct maps which I could obtain, coded precincts by place, etc... way back when I was in High School in the late '80s / early '90s. In many cases it might easily take an hour or two for larger and more complicated cities to crunch and code precinct data, since frequently municipal boundaries changes, split-precincts emerge, etc, so naturally when individuals question that based upon sources which are dubious at best, without providing legitimate arguments based upon their own analysis or credible alternative sources, it makes it look like I am pulling numbers from thin air. I will not go through the exercise of attempting to analyze bestplaces.net source data (Unless I am looking at real estate value etc....), but what I do suspect is that any election data they are crunching is more to do with a "Metro Area" type numbers vs City / Municipal Level data. If you are interested further in information regarding where to obtain official precinct data, how to crunch and code county / state precinct data into municipal numbers more than happy to provide tips. You can always PM me if you don't want to post on this thread.... It's pretty cool that you are very interested in detailed 2012 election results and breakdowns by place so no hard feelings on my end at all, and might continue to take a look at a few of the other cities on the list (time permitting) since it's overall a bit slow in terms of other election data these days. :) Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: Schiff for Senate on October 08, 2021, 08:04:46 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins. Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins. As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits. For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney. Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well. Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term). ;) () No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney. Fair enough... you seem like a nice person and apologies if I might have come across as a bit sarcastic (Which was not my intent). There are a decent number of posters on Atlas, many of whom have been posting here for years who have been collecting and dissecting precinct results and in many cases consolidating to the municipal level. For example, I first started collecting and analyzing precinct results for Oregon shortly after the 1988 General Election and combined that data with precinct maps which I could obtain, coded precincts by place, etc... way back when I was in High School in the late '80s / early '90s. In many cases it might easily take an hour or two for larger and more complicated cities to crunch and code precinct data, since frequently municipal boundaries changes, split-precincts emerge, etc, so naturally when individuals question that based upon sources which are dubious at best, without providing legitimate arguments based upon their own analysis or credible alternative sources, it makes it look like I am pulling numbers from thin air. I will not go through the exercise of attempting to analyze bestplaces.net source data (Unless I am looking at real estate value etc....), but what I do suspect is that any election data they are crunching is more to do with a "Metro Area" type numbers vs City / Municipal Level data. If you are interested further in information regarding where to obtain official precinct data, how to crunch and code county / state precinct data into municipal numbers more than happy to provide tips. You can always PM me if you don't want to post on this thread.... It's pretty cool that you are very interested in detailed 2012 election results and breakdowns by place so no hard feelings on my end at all, and might continue to take a look at a few of the other cities on the list (time permitting) since it's overall a bit slow in terms of other election data these days. :) No, it's fine...I'm not that interested in city data or anything, it's just that I by chance came across I site where they were showing city results and thought of this thread and some of the unresolved cities on it. But I'm not that interested or anything in how the cities voted; you can put more data if you or others want it, but I don't really mind if you don't put any more data. Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: NOVA Green on October 08, 2021, 08:54:45 PM So far it looks like of the capitals in counties Romney won; Obama won Salem, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Helena, Lincoln, Topeka, and Annapolis or at least I think it safe to assume he won these even if they were close. Charleston, Boise, and Springfield still seem unclear to any clarification would be great. It looks like Romney won Carson City, Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre, and Jefferson City, so he won anywhere between 5-8 state capitals. Thanks to https://www.bestplaces.net/, I can tell you definitively how these cities went in 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, Boise went Republican in 2020. In fact it's voted red since at least 1996 (the stats are only given 2000-onward, though I think it's safe to assume Boise went non-forum red in 1996), and with double-digit margins in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Also surprisingly, Springfield votes red too. It went red in 2000, 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2020, only voting blue in 2008, although Romney in 2012 (and Trump in 2016 and 2020) won by single-digit margins. Not at all surprisingly, Charleston is quite Republican. It last went Democratic in 2000 and gave Romney and Trump (twice) double-digit margins. As for the others, you're right about the cities you guessed went for Romney - Carson City backed him, as did Cheyenne, Bismarck, Pierre and Jefferson City. In fact, all those cities, with the exception of Carson City, supported Romney by double digits. For Obama, you're completely incorrect (no offense meant) - all of the ones you predicted went for him actually went for Romney. Salem went for Romney by single digits; SLC, as I suspected, went for him by double digits (I told you he won it because muh Mormonism and overperformance in North UT); and Lincoln went red by single digits. Very surprisingly, Phoenix went for Romney by single digits too (I thought it would be safe Democratic), and so did Helena and Topeka (less surprising). Annapolis, pretty surprisingly, gave Romney a win as well. Go home... and don't bet on bestplaces.com Out of your element Donny, although again I strongly suspect you are being frivolous in the extreme or "taking a Mickey" (Once again to use another British term). ;) () No, I genuinely considered it a reliable site. Though in retrospect I considered it kind of suspect that Phoenix went for Romney. Fair enough... you seem like a nice person and apologies if I might have come across as a bit sarcastic (Which was not my intent). There are a decent number of posters on Atlas, many of whom have been posting here for years who have been collecting and dissecting precinct results and in many cases consolidating to the municipal level. For example, I first started collecting and analyzing precinct results for Oregon shortly after the 1988 General Election and combined that data with precinct maps which I could obtain, coded precincts by place, etc... way back when I was in High School in the late '80s / early '90s. In many cases it might easily take an hour or two for larger and more complicated cities to crunch and code precinct data, since frequently municipal boundaries changes, split-precincts emerge, etc, so naturally when individuals question that based upon sources which are dubious at best, without providing legitimate arguments based upon their own analysis or credible alternative sources, it makes it look like I am pulling numbers from thin air. I will not go through the exercise of attempting to analyze bestplaces.net source data (Unless I am looking at real estate value etc....), but what I do suspect is that any election data they are crunching is more to do with a "Metro Area" type numbers vs City / Municipal Level data. If you are interested further in information regarding where to obtain official precinct data, how to crunch and code county / state precinct data into municipal numbers more than happy to provide tips. You can always PM me if you don't want to post on this thread.... It's pretty cool that you are very interested in detailed 2012 election results and breakdowns by place so no hard feelings on my end at all, and might continue to take a look at a few of the other cities on the list (time permitting) since it's overall a bit slow in terms of other election data these days. :) No, it's fine...I'm not that interested in city data or anything, it's just that I by chance came across I site where they were showing city results and thought of this thread and some of the unresolved cities on it. But I'm not that interested or anything in how the cities voted; you can put more data if you or others want it, but I don't really mind if you don't put any more data. Totally cool CentristRepublican... Pretty sure I've posted links to sites on Atlas in my posting career over the years and excited to share only to find out they weren't the "data gold mine" I thought they were and other posters challenged me on my sources. :) Title: Re: State Capitals that went for Romney Post by: cg41386 on December 03, 2022, 04:58:46 PM Sorry to dredge up an old thread, but bestplaces uses COUNTY data, not city level. There are no websites that I am aware of that has easily accessible election results by city.
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