Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: Clamdick McClaw on November 10, 2012, 07:01:34 pm



Title: My 2nd favorite result of the night: LOUISIANA!
Post by: Clamdick McClaw on November 10, 2012, 07:01:34 pm
Bucking the swing of the rest of the South and actually giving Obama an improvement.  

()

What happened around N.O.?  Did everyone move back?  Either way, awesome stuff from my 2nd favorite major U.S. city, I guess 2008 was a GOP candidate maxed out.  

()

for the sake of reminiscing, here's me and my crew at the Katrina recovery effort in 2009.   


Title: Re: My 2nd favorite result of the night: LOUISIANA!
Post by: Benj on November 10, 2012, 09:23:50 pm
Hard to know. I suspect the black population has boomed in suburban New Orleans recently, and that that was the cause of the big swing in St. Bernard Parish. Some people have suggested Deepwater Horizon as an explanation, but the vast majority of the population of St. Bernard Parish lives in Chalmette, Arabi and nearby towns, suburbs adjacent to New Orleans. (And not just to any part of New Orleans, to the infamous Lower Ninth Ward.) There are very few fishermen or other people directly affected by the oil spill there. (Plaquemines would have more.)

A surge in suburban black population would also explain the result in Jefferson Parish, which is also almost entirely suburban.

Generally speaking, it seems that, outside of the New Orleans metro, the swings are the result of lower white turnout and higher black turnout.  The rest of the swings to Obama look like the areas that swung to Obama in Mississippi and Alabama. Livingston Parish, which has basically no black people, can't be explained by that. However, at 85% for McCain, it was probably already maxed out for Republicans.


Title: Re: My 2nd favorite result of the night: LOUISIANA!
Post by: mileslunn on November 19, 2012, 12:01:33 am
Bucking the swing of the rest of the South and actually giving Obama an improvement.  

()

What happened around N.O.?  Did everyone move back?  Either way, awesome stuff from my 2nd favorite major U.S. city, I guess 2008 was a GOP candidate maxed out.  

()

for the sake of reminiscing, here's me and my crew at the Katrina recovery effort in 2009.   

Possible that much of the Black population who was displaced from Hurricane Katrina returned.  It could also be amongst the white population there was a slight improvement (In Alabama Obama went up slightly according to the exit polls) as many of the older more racist ones have died in the last four years while the younger ones who became of age vote on issue not race, albeit considering how heavily the white vote in the rest of the country swung against Obama I am skeptical of this.  Mind you McCain got close to 85% of the white vote in Louisiana in 2008 meaning there really wasn't much room for growth left to being with.


Title: Re: My 2nd favorite result of the night: LOUISIANA!
Post by: GMantis on November 19, 2012, 04:59:51 pm
Hard to know. I suspect the black population has boomed in suburban New Orleans recently, and that that was the cause of the big swing in St. Bernard Parish. Some people have suggested Deepwater Horizon as an explanation, but the vast majority of the population of St. Bernard Parish lives in Chalmette, Arabi and nearby towns, suburbs adjacent to New Orleans. (And not just to any part of New Orleans, to the infamous Lower Ninth Ward.) There are very few fishermen or other people directly affected by the oil spill there. (Plaquemines would have more.)
Didn't this issue hurt Obama?