Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: tweed on November 07, 2012, 08:25:16 pm



Title: Obama wins DuPage County, IL by 4k out of 400k cast
Post by: tweed on November 07, 2012, 08:25:16 pm
thus vindicating all of us (me, BRTD) for repeatedly asking the question.


Title: Re: Obama wins DuPage County, IL by 4k out of 400k cast
Post by: muon2 on November 08, 2012, 08:09:23 am
The Dems had a fabulous GOTV that was totally missed by the pollsters. There was some sign of this in Cook in 2010 that carried Quinn in the Gov's race. This year that effort showed up throughout the state, including DuPage, as there was a complete shellacking of the GOP.

As I get more detailed breakdowns I'll post more.


Title: Re: Obama wins DuPage County, IL by 4k out of 400k cast
Post by: ill ind on November 08, 2012, 10:35:14 am
  I didn't see the Dem GOTV out by us.  I just got the Dem lit drop like you were doing for the GOP, but Obama won in our area along with several other downballot Dems.
  The 6th District Forest Preserve Board where there was 1 Dem and 1 Rep head to head and the Dem winning was one of the bigger shockers that I saw locally.  The County Board and voting for 3 candidates is easier to see a Dem get through.

Ill_Ind


Title: Re: Obama wins DuPage County, IL by 4k out of 400k cast
Post by: politicallefty on November 08, 2012, 12:25:23 pm
Doesn't IL-11 have part of DuPage County? That was a top target, which ended up being a blowout.


Title: Re: Obama wins DuPage County, IL by 4k out of 400k cast
Post by: ill ind on November 08, 2012, 01:35:45 pm
  Approximately 1/3 of CD 11 is in DuPage county.  It voted Democratic by a 52 to 48 percent margin.


  A portion why  probably has to do with the way the map is drawn.  GOP congressional candidates got 196K votes in DuPage compared to 179K for the Dems.

Consider from the February primary the percentage of the countywide party votes by Congressional District

District    Democratic %    Republican %

3rd               .09%                  .1%
5th             5.63%                9.17%
6th           38.09%               50.05%
8th           32.39%               19.08%
11th         21.79%               19.05%
14th           2.02%                 1.57%

  Notice how a large percentage of Republicans were drawn into the non competitive Chicago based 5th, and the GOP vote-dump 6th.  GOP percentages in the competitive 8th and 11th districts were minimized, while an attempt was made to maximize the Democratic percentages in those districts.


  Ill_Ind


Title: Re: Obama wins DuPage County, IL by 4k out of 400k cast
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on November 09, 2012, 01:03:23 pm
I would have been very surprised if Romney didn't improve by a lot in the collar counties.


Title: Re: Obama wins DuPage County, IL by 4k out of 400k cast
Post by: ill ind on November 25, 2012, 04:10:43 pm
  I would guess this smaller Obama victory in DuPage probably rattled the DuPage GOP establishment quite a bit more than the first.  In 2008, he was the favorite son, and there was alot of excitement about his candidacy, so Obama winning DuPage was seen as a fluke.  Then Pat Quinn got 39% for Governor 2 years ago, so Obama winning this time around came as a complete surprise--like getting hit across the head by a 2"x 4" surprised.

  There are lots of advantages to being a GOP candidate in DuPage County.  Guaranteed victory is no longer one of them however.

Ill Ind-