Talk Elections

Hi,
The 2012 Republican Primary Predictions (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php) are now enabled.  Please report any issues.

Thank you Dave! :)

Awesome.

Thanks, Dave.

And now Paul has a state.

The map is misleading to some extent; Perry wins lots of low-population, large states, while Romney wins denser, New England states. Since those that predicted Romney would win Arizona were generally more confident than those that predicted Perry do so, I counted Arizona for Romney, whereas I split Wisconsin 50-50.

EC count (obviously PR not included), using above method:

Mitt Romney 282
Rick Perry 243
Michele Bachmann 10
Ron Paul 3

Which looks about right.

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's fairly well liked. But most of the people here don't think he'll win any states.

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party

Understatement of the century.

New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):

Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10

Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.

Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".

^

Will others get colors as they come into major play. I'm thinking Cain, Gingrich, and possibly Christie if he enters.

I think we need to replace Huntsman with someone else, since Cain and Gingrich both do better than him and don't have their own colors.

It may be prudent to give Cain a new color, as well as Gingrich.

Perhaps Huntsman's red can be swapped to Cain, and Bachmann's orange to Gingrich?

I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.

OK, we're down to a two-way race between Romney and Perry. Romney clearly leads:

Mitt Romney 360
Rick Perry 178

Cain has still not broken through anywhere; it'll probably start in Georgia.

Well, I can only judge from my own opinions, but I believe there's two things at work here.

1)  There's a lot of flux right now, things changing fast, etc, and no one's really sure how it'll even be next week.

2)  People's opinions of Cain in particular are changing pretty fast.  Some thing he's a fad, some think he's here to stay, even more aren't sure either way...

I personally was going to wait until things settle to make my next version, but it'd been awhile, so I made one today.

Romney: 282
Cain: 177
Perry: 69
Bachmann: 10

I've been hearing lately that some big money donors are giving Gingrich a second look, though, so I may revisit this.

Gingrich has his own color. I guess Cain will stay with purple?

I just changed the overall map for the first time. SWEET. Virginia to Romney, thank you very much. :P

EDIT: AND Nebraska, whaaaat

While I hadn't done so intentionally, of the predictions favorable to Newt:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?sort=9

I currently have the most favorable:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=410

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)

Will Mitt even be on the ballot in Utah?  Given that Utah is the very last GOP primary for now, if Mitt concedes early enough his campaign might not file and/or ask for a refund of the filing fee.

I just tripled down on Newt in my latest prediction.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=441

I only left Romney with New Hampshire, Alaska, and Washington.  Everything else goes to Gingrich.

I was a bit more generous, but my new prediction is also a Gingrich victory.

Here it is. (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=459)

How do you make these maps.

Get an account on the Atlas site (not the forum), click on the prediction map, and click "Create Prediction".

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=495

^mine

And the compiled map now has Gingrich winning Missouri, a state where he isn't even on the ballot.

Come on guys, we're supposed to be the informed ones. ;)

Rick Perry is still winning Texas and was winning most of the South until a couple days ago.

That was only because people were lazy and hadn't updated their predictions. It's been concrete now for a while he won't be on the ballot, and in that same time, he's taken Missouri on the map.

Altho arguably, Dave should replace the non-binding Missouri primary that will be held on 7 February with the binding Missouri caucus that will be held on 17 March, and Gingrich certainly will be a player for that if the nomination is still in doubt.

I was going to make one, but with the race as volatile as it is, it really does not seem worth it.

First prediction, partly based on 538's forecasts and partly personal guesswork due to the current trends.

()


Of course, more serious predictions can be done only after Iowa.

Hi,
Note that the primary election dates have been updated and that the MO contest has replaced the Primary with the Caucus.

Dave

You can update it as it goes on.

Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?

Indeed. But meanwhile, he keeps stealing States to Gingrich (FL and SD recently, MO now being tied...). TX has also switched back to Perry for some reason.

Final prediction before Iowa.

()

Of course everything might change after that.

We all saw how far Gingrich dropped once the negativity hit him in Iowa. From early to mid-December, Gingrich's lead in South Carolina went from around 20 points to 12, according to Insider Advantage. At this point, his lead is probably smaller than that, and considering he probably won't have strong (Top 3) showings in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as well as his lack of finances, I have a hard time seeing him win South Carolina, thus the nomination. It's going to be an interesting battle in South Carolina, to say the least. ;)

Are the color changes on the Iowa results page here (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=19&f=0&off=0&elect=2) going to be reflected in the predictions?

Rick Santorum being blue, Newt Gingrich being orange, etc

()

Updated prediction. SC is a guesswork, but I'm fairly confident Santorum will pull ahead there in next polls.

My Iowa prediction turned to be correct (unfortunately). :(

People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.

Sorry, but no. The race was objectively a tossup. Whether Romney won or not, you can't say it was a good thing to say the race was "lean Romney".

No! No! No! I got my two points, and I'm not sharing. >:(

Amen. Yes, it was a very close race, practically a toss-up, but the fact remains that Romney received more votes than any other candidate, and those who predicted that it would happen should be "rewarded" for their prediction.

Dave,
This alas desperately needs to be updated!
ht.../PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php
Michelle Bachmann is gone, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum should be included for a short time at least.
What do you think?

Argh, I wanted to change my prediction to Romney >30%, but it's already been locked :(

Looks like I will be continuing on my quest for a perfect prediction map. I was one of 23, but I'd bet a couple had Romney at 40%. If this is a 50-state sweep like some suspect, it now comes down to a battle of which of us can nail %'s the best. ;)

"Predictions are now closed"

Uhh what?

I had this problem earlier, except with Bachmann. Now my colors updated on my map but I still can't update my map at all.

Now, maybe the moderators can open up the Senate and Governor predictions of 2012.

Predictions seem to be back up - thanks for the changes Dave! :)

Great thread.

Hi,
I've made the color changes in the Predictions for 2012 Republican primary - this was arduous and is not complete.  What was done:
Gingrich changed from beige/brown to blue on all maps after 11/10/2011
Perry changed from blue to beige/brown on all maps after 11/10/2011
Bachman changed from orange to a steel gray on all maps after 11/10/2011

Santorum changed to orange on all users' most-recent maps (since Santorum and Cain were both purple, prior to the most recent maps, I was unable to make a blanket change on the maps).

Still left to do: update Gingrich, Perry, and Bachman for maps prior to 11/10/2011.

If you would like to update your historic maps for Santorum to Orange, you can do these manually yourself by downloading the maps to your computer and changing the colors in an image software (I use Graphic Converter on the mac) and re-save in the same png format, then if you email me the files, I'll upload them for you.

Thanks,
Dave

Hi,
Intermediate scores have been updated on the 2012 Republican Primary predictions.
Enjoy,
Dave

I still think you really need to address the issue of Iowa and it's scoring. I and several other people have all said that Santorum and Romney state wins should garner one point and Paul state wins should garner half a point

Accuracy: 107%

Whaaa?