Title: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Grumpier Than Thou on March 01, 2011, 07:09:44 PM
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Net Gains:
Republicans: +6
Democrats: +2
Independants: -1
Net Gains:
Republicans: +6
Democrats: +2
Independants: -1
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Miles on March 01, 2011, 07:47:51 PM
As it stands today if all incumbents running for reelection win their primaries....
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>80%=Safe
>60%=Likely
>40%=Lean
>30%=Slight
Green=Pure Tossup
(
>80%=Safe
>60%=Likely
>40%=Lean
>30%=Slight
Green=Pure Tossup
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 01, 2011, 10:44:31 PM
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Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 01, 2011, 10:46:04 PM
Dems -3
GOP +3
OH, NV as tossups
GOP +3
OH, NV as tossups
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Miles on March 01, 2011, 11:02:52 PM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: SvenssonRS on March 02, 2011, 04:44:40 AM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: DS0816 on March 02, 2011, 06:20:26 AM
If President Obama wins re-election in 2012 (and I predict he will), the Democrats will not lose majority control of the Senate.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: SvenssonRS on March 02, 2011, 01:41:27 PM
If President Obama wins re-election in 2012 (and I predict he will), the Democrats will not lose majority control of the Senate.
Really? NE and ND have already as good as fallen.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: nkpatel1279 on March 02, 2011, 02:01:26 PM
Losing ND and NE can be offset with MA-assuming DEMs nominate a credible candidate. and NV-assuming DEMS nominate a credible candidate. ME is Snowe loses in the Republican primary.
MT,MO,and VA are pure tossup states. Dems will probally hold onto OH and MI.
MT,MO,and VA are pure tossup states. Dems will probally hold onto OH and MI.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Heimdal on March 02, 2011, 03:38:33 PM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 03, 2011, 03:49:28 AM
I'd see republicans picking up 3 or 4 seats and democrats picking up 1 or 2, thus dems retaining a narrow majority. Of course, everything can happen for now.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Mechaman on March 03, 2011, 08:43:41 AM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a newbie.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 03, 2011, 09:52:44 AM
That's because Nevada has replaced Missouri as a swing state. Noticed in the last senate election Reid wond up winning and Carnahan lost. I say Nevada has very well replaced Missouri as a bellweather.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Mechaman on March 03, 2011, 11:08:59 AM
That's because Nevada has replaced Missouri as a swing state. Noticed in the last senate election Reid wond up winning and Carnahan lost. I say Nevada has very well replaced Missouri as a bellweather.
Spot on analysis my friend.
Although I have to say that if there is any Senator who could probably retain their seat in an upset it's probably McCaskill (based on what I've seen and heard of her). Tester could possibly retain his seat as well depending on the mood of the Montana electorate come election time.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Heimdal on March 03, 2011, 12:41:46 PM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Mechaman on March 03, 2011, 01:34:08 PM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.
Jesus dude, settle down. I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here. A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Miles on March 03, 2011, 01:52:05 PM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.
Jesus dude, settle down. I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
Yes, lets keep this friendly.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Heimdal on March 03, 2011, 04:22:25 PM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.
Jesus dude, settle down. I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here. A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).
Hehe. I guess I didn't really read your post before I typed my response. The blame is all mine mate. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Mechaman on March 03, 2011, 05:09:18 PM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.
Jesus dude, settle down. I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here. A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).
Hehe. I guess I didn't really read your post before I typed my response. The blame is all mine mate. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
I could've said "newb" instead of "noob" (which in hindsight sounds offensive).
Whatever man, welcome to the forum.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Bull Moose Base on March 03, 2011, 05:48:42 PM
Losing ND and NE can be offset with MA-assuming DEMs nominate a credible candidate. and NV-assuming DEMS nominate a credible candidate. ME is Snowe loses in the Republican primary.
MT,MO,and VA are pure tossup states. Dems will probally hold onto OH and MI.
MT,MO,and VA are pure tossup states. Dems will probally hold onto OH and MI.
This exactly. Also CT will have end up with a more reliable Dem senator.
Title: Re: 2012 Senate Predictions
Post by: Heimdal on March 04, 2011, 02:17:56 AM
I don't see why everyone seems to be underestimating McCaskill.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
Last I saw, she was ahead of all her potential challengers; throw in a rough GOP primary too and Claire will be in great shape.
I wouldn't be so sure about the tough primary deal. Steelman is the de facto nominee with both Talent and Missouri's entire Republican congressional delegation out of the way. Her only opponent is set to be the bats**t insane Ed Martin.
This. And Missouri is trending red. It isn't really the swing-state it once was.
I was about to say it didn't make sense considering that Obama was the only Democrat to win the election while losing Missouri until I realized that you're a noob.
As long as you don't make your maps with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue we're cool.
I have followed politics for a long time, so you can dropp the attitude.
But yeah, Obama is the only Democrat in a long time to win the GE without the electoral votes of Missouri. And thats says something about the state and how it is shifting.
Jesus dude, settle down. I meant as in a forum newbie (like your designation), not someone who knows little about politics.
My comment was mostly about my initial confusion at you calling Missouri "trending red" until I realized you're new here. A lot of us on here think Democrat=red and Republican=blue because we have used Dave Leip's forum for so long (actually I always found blue for Republicans and red for Democrats more appropriate for some reason).
Hehe. I guess I didn't really read your post before I typed my response. The blame is all mine mate. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
I could've said "newb" instead of "noob" (which in hindsight sounds offensive).
Whatever man, welcome to the forum.
Regardless of that, thank you.