Talk Elections

With 2011 just around the corner, the primaries will be coming up 12 months or less.  What is the status of all the swing states and what social/fiscal issues can change their swing from DEM/REP or the other way.

Also, which battleground states do you think will go down to the wire on election night?

How are you defining swing state?

Indiana has a higher PVI than Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Washington, etc.
It is only one point less partisan than California.

Im just basing it off 270towin.com site from the previous elections, nothing less or more

Indiana took 44 years to swing, based on previous elections. :)

IN and MO cannot properly be considered swing states for 2012.  You might want to add PA and OH in their place.

Lots of swing states are also bellwethers. Right now, I'd say four of them qualify: Ohio (voting with the winner in every election since 1896, minus 1944 and 1960); Florida (voting with the winner in every election since 1928, except for 1960 and 1992); Nevada (voting with the winner in every election since 1912, sans 1976); and New Mexico (voting with the winner in every election since its statehood and its first election, in 1912, with exceptions of 1976 and 2000).

Missouri (voting with the winner in every election since 1904, with exceptions of 1956 and 2008) is a declining bellwether, and neighboring Iowa (siding with the popular-vote winner in all of the 1990s and 2000s elections, with a margin quite close to the national margin) is a rising bellwether. And I'd say Colorado (No. 1 closest margin to that of the national level, in 1988; No. 5 closest in 2004, just 2.21% higher; No. 2 closest in 2008, 1.69% higher) is a bellwether on the rise (some think Colo. has already arrived; I'm inclined not to argue). And Virginia (No. 1 in 2008, just 0.96% less that Obama's national 7.26%, and it was also his No. 1 closest for the voting percent) must be considered, because its neighbor, Tennessee, used to be a bellwether (voting with the winner in all since 1912, except for 1924, 1960, and 2008; it now has a strong partisan ID for Republicans) — and some think the Commonwealth of Virginia may be the new bellwether. (Noteworthy: Colo. and Va. have voted the same in all presidential elections since 1948, with the exception of 1992.)

If Barack Obama wins re-election in 2012, as the 44th president of the United States, I want to see if it involves carrying again Indiana and North Carolina. In 2008, he narrowly pulled them across his finish line. So, we need the next presidential election to get a better sense of their swing.


Question: Had Hillary Clinton been the 2008 Democratic nominee for president of the United States, she would've won Arkansas (which gave George W. Bush a margin approximately 1.50% above Va.). John Kerry had 49% support of females, losing them by just one point. Hillary would've had closer to 59%. That 40% of males for Kerry — duplicated for Obama (who lost women, with 39%, making it clear they rejected him) — would've shifted Democratic. Clinton would've easily flipped the State of Arkansas into her column. Does anyone think the margin in Arkansas would've been close to the national one for Hillary Clinton?

Yeah, I forgot to throw Ohio into the mix. Too many states to remember!

Almost every President who has won reelection has expanded his margin, since Americans in general want their Presidents to succeed and give them time to do so.  So if this holds true for Obama, he will win all his 2008 states and the "swing states" would be the states he most narrowly won or lost: IN, NC, and MO, maybe FL and MT.

But I think its more likely Obama's margin will shrink from 7% in 2008 to less than 3%, that moves IN, NC, FL, and OH to the Republican candidate (and 254 Electoral Votes for the GOP), and the too close to call swing states would likely be: VA, IA, NH, and maybe CO. 

So to win the GOP candidate will need 15 EV from VA, IA, NH, and CO.

All states that went for McCain in 2008 will vote for the Republican candidate in 2012.  Based on reapportionment following the 2010 Census, this brings  the Republican Candidate to 179 electoral votes.   

Indiana,  North Carolina, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District were the three "flukes" of 2008 and as it stands now I would say that they are Likely Republican.  That brings the Republican's EV's to 206 Electoral Votes.

Demographic changes in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico have made these states slightly more Democratic.  This is evident by how, in 2010, Nevada and Colorado both reelected Democrats to the U.S. Senate.  These states, by no means safe for Obama, are likley to vote Democratic again in 2012.

Virginia and Florida are two states are demographically more alike than different that both voted for Obama in 2008 despite historically tending to support Republicans.  Virginia elected a Republican governor in 2009 and Florida did the same in 2010.  Polls suggest that the 2012 Virginia Senate Election is highly competitive.  These states seem to be trending Republican, let's put them in the Lean Republican category.  This brings the Republican candidate's total to 248 Electoral Votes.

New Hampshire is the least "swingy" of the "swing states".  With the exception of the 2000 election it has voted for Democrats since the Reagan Administration.  Despite the fact that it elected a Republican Senator in 2010, Republican presidential candidates (i.e. Romney, Palin, Gingrich) are not polling very well in the state at this time.  I would say that NH is "lean Democrat".

Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin,  Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are all states that went for Obama in 2008 and have historically supported Democrats.  They are also the states that have been affected the most by the economic downturn.  In 2010, Republicans won Senate seats in three of these states, two of those wins were pick-ups.  Demographically they are becoming more friendly to Republicans because there voters are aging and not as many minorities call these states home.  However, unionized labor remains very heavily rooted in these states.  In 2012, these will be the swing states.

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The Green States, who have a combined total of 80 Electoral Votes, will be where the battle for the presidency is waged in 2010. 

Based on this map, Republicans have 248 EV's, Democrats--210, Undecided/"Swing"--80...
 

New Hampshire was one of H.W. Bush's best states in 88'.

I would likely go ahead and add MN, MI and PA to the D column.

The 1988 election was during the Reagan administration...


I would have to disagree with you there...all of these states had MASSIVE Republican trends in 2008...compare the 2000 PA map to the 2008 PA map, all of those southeastern counties going for the GOP.  Its not unthinkable than PA could be in-play during the 2012 cycle. 

In 2004, Kerry got less than 50% in MN so I think that it is not out of the question that MN could go for the GOP in 2012.

Michigan is the most democratic of the states you mentioned, but should still be considered a swing state for the reasons I stated above: demographic changes. 

What would it take for a GOP to win 2012 without winning CO and NV?

GOP - 291
Obama - 247

This is my prediction

Obama loses election. Nevada/Colorado/New Mexico become east California, they repeat the transformation what California went through in 1992. My state is going to hell, where's a great place to move?

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NC and IN are going in the GOP collumn along with MO.
CO,NV and NH are going to be in the Leans DEM along with PA,MI,MN,WI,IA,NM,and OR.
VA,OH,and FL are going to be in the pure tossup collumn.

Kerry got more than 50% in MN.

John Kerry/John Edwards      
1,445,014    
51.09%   

George W. Bush/Richard Cheney      
1,346,695    
47.61%

It's basically a Democratic-leaning state that has a high floor for the GOP.

It could theoretically flip in an Obama-style GOP victory.

North Carolina I think will become a safe democratic state by the end of the decade, considering Obama got 74 percent of the under 30 vote in North Carolina.

Young voters get older, and when they do they start voting more Republican. I still think NC has the potential of being a swing state in '12 though. Indiana however probably goes back to safe GOP column... unless Palin is the nominee.

We're safe GOP even with Palin. Aren't you aware of how big the tea party is here?

Ok, what I don't understand is if CO, NV, NM, NH, PA, NC and VA lean Dem, how in the world is a Rep going to win in 2012? They need at least 4 out of those 7 states to win.

It's too early to jump to conclusions and say how the states vote in 2012, ANYTHING can change drastically.

That is true to some extent. But 74 percent? That is way too big of a lead to cut into.

You see, in NC at 2008 it was "cool" to like Obama. And the colleges did a great job at getting young kids to go out and vote for him. Now when this kids get out in the real world where mommy and daddy aren't paying for everything then they will start voting Republican.

You see, in NC at 2008 it was "cool" to like Obama. And the colleges did a great job at getting young kids to go out and vote for him. Now when this kids get out in the real world where mommy and daddy aren't paying for everything then they will start voting Republican.
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But not all generations get more conservative/republican as they age. Look at the Gen Xers who were born in the 1960s. They started out as a very republican generation as Reagan won 58-59 percent of the under 30 vote in 1984. As time went on they became more of a swing bloc voting for Bush in 88 (but by 5 points less) backing Clinton both times, breaking even between Bush and Gore, voting for Bush in 04, and for Obama in 08.

Let's see how the vote is in 2012 before making that conclusion.

But not all generations get more conservative/republican as they age. Look at the Gen Xers who were born in the 1960s. They started out as a very republican generation as Reagan won 58-59 percent of the under 30 vote in 1984. As time went on they became more of a swing bloc voting for Bush in 88 (but by 5 points less) backing Clinton both times, breaking even between Bush and Gore, voting for Bush in 04, and for Obama in 08.
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Actually, voting 58-59% for Reagan in 1984 would make them a swing constituency.   Reagan won 58.8% of the national vote, so they'd be at the national average.

Well, according to PPP, the Republicans did just that.  Even against Palin (whom he beats statewide by 14 points, and wins in every age category against) he's only up by 28 in a registered voter poll.

Against Huckabee (who he loses to by 1), he only wins them by 9 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_1222.pdf

Actually, voting 58-59% for Reagan in 1984 would make them a swing constituency.   Reagan won 58.8% of the national vote, so they'd be at the national average.
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okay but while the Gen Xers didn't get more liberal as they aged, they sure as hell didn't get more conservative.

To answer the original question, assuming the election is a nail biter, the better question is what states won’t emerge as swing states.

I’d put on the top of the list Michigan. Democratic every year since 1988, it has unions, the automakers are recovering, and I can’t see them voting for free trade Republicans when many blame free trade for their woes. It’d take a really good case to make to convince Michigan to vote GOP.

Minnesota and Iowa, sort of the same boat.

In a nailbiter election, Indiana and North Carolina will be the first states to return to the GOP. Obama had the resources to compete in both states and in a much closer election, they’re more likely to follow traditional patterns. And I don’t really believe either state would be close in 2012 if Obama is in a tight re-election struggle. Both are still light red states at worst (for the Republicans).

to best understand the election to come in 2012 one must understand the new dynamics of the senate class 1 seat from tn for which I vote for the outsider this time a fellow named durkan yeah that is who I will shed my vote for Durkan for Senate tn. He understands that the start treaty should have been left the the junior senators sworn in on the 4th and that it was morally uncomprehendable to sign for 23 billion split between the 6000 wealthiest citizens in tax breaks.

okay but while the Gen Xers didn't get more liberal as they aged, they sure as hell didn't get more conservative.
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But in 1980, young voters voted for Reagan by 60%, when Reagan won just over 50% of the vote.

It's hard to say, though. With the Republican party moving so far to the right, arguably they would have to be getting more conservative, otherwise they'd be solidly Democratic.