Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: WalterMitty on November 21, 2004, 12:27:03 am



Title: what state has changed the least?
Post by: WalterMitty on November 21, 2004, 12:27:03 am
over the last 20-30 years, what state has changed the least politically?

id say indiana.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: A18 on November 21, 2004, 12:34:33 am
I'm gonna go with Virginia. Republicans still do 2-5% better here than they do nationally.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Alcon on November 21, 2004, 01:08:49 am
Utah?


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: 12th Doctor on November 21, 2004, 01:56:18 am

Utah used to be a GOP leaning swing state.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: ?????????? on November 21, 2004, 01:59:05 am

LOL. When?


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: 12th Doctor on November 21, 2004, 01:59:46 am
I say Indiana and Massachusetts


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: 12th Doctor on November 21, 2004, 02:00:52 am


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Alcon on November 21, 2004, 02:59:30 am
This is 20-30 years ago, though, so the 60's don't count.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on November 21, 2004, 03:14:28 am
Wisconsin seems to always be a swing state


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Lunar on November 21, 2004, 03:38:45 am
North Dakota maybe?


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2004, 06:58:19 am
At what level?


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: WalterMitty on November 21, 2004, 10:47:58 am
some notes...

utah has always been a republican state, but no doubt is republicanism has grown over the last  20 or so years...same deal with massachusetts and the democrats.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: giving birth to thunder on November 21, 2004, 02:40:57 pm

way way false. Not only has it changed fairly radically at the state level, it has presidentially as well, look at the results in 1976 and 1988.

I also vote for Indiana. Probably the most politically static state of all history.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on November 21, 2004, 03:02:07 pm
I'll just take a wild guess and say NC...


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: giving birth to thunder on November 21, 2004, 03:33:49 pm
I'll just take a wild guess and say NC...

compare 1976 to 2004.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on November 21, 2004, 03:49:57 pm

well besides that year.. that was a southern populist democrat...


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: nini2287 on November 22, 2004, 03:59:08 pm
I guess DC doesn't count


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Storebought on November 22, 2004, 06:51:10 pm
Rhode Island. Went GOP all of four times since 1928.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Hitchabrut on November 24, 2004, 08:32:21 pm
PA, OR, and IA


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Hitchabrut on November 24, 2004, 08:33:51 pm
not IA, i meant IN


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Thegreatwar18 on September 21, 2019, 10:27:43 pm
I'm gonna go with Virginia. Republicans still do 2-5% better here than they do nationally.

Oh how the times have changed


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: DeSantis2024 on September 21, 2019, 11:15:16 pm

LOL that aged poorly.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on September 21, 2019, 11:36:32 pm
The answer nowadays is Florida. It's been a swing state at the federal level while being dominated by Republicans at the local level for two straight decades.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: President Biden on September 22, 2019, 07:20:06 am
New Hampshire, Nebraska, South Carolina


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on September 22, 2019, 07:46:03 am
South Carolina seems to be remarkably stagnant in its PVI level each election


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Anarcho-Statism on September 22, 2019, 08:59:08 am


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Roll Roons on September 22, 2019, 09:03:51 am
No mention of Kansas? The state hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since FDR's time, and that won't change unless Kobach gets the nomination. Despite what people on here seem to think, its streak of voting for Republican presidential nominees for the past century (apart from 1932, 1936 and 1964) also won't end anytime soon.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Anarcho-Statism on September 22, 2019, 09:15:02 am
No mention of Kansas? The state hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since FDR's time, and that won't change unless Kobach gets the nomination. Despite what people on here seem to think, its streak of voting for Republican presidential nominees for the past century (apart from 1932, 1936 and 1964) also won't end anytime soon.

That and Nebraska would be my first suggestions, but a lot of people here are very insistent that both are future flips for the Democrats (at least NE-02).


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: sg0508 on September 22, 2019, 10:35:50 am
Minnesota. 


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: LabourJersey on September 22, 2019, 11:48:18 am
If we're talking about since the 1980s, I would say Idaho. Safe Republican state then, Safe republican state now.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: LiberalDem19 on September 22, 2019, 11:41:35 pm

Went from voting Mondale in the Reagan landslide to almost going Trump, and elected governors from three parties during that time period. Also had senators from both parties during that time, and the legislature is really swingy. I'm not seeing the case here.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Old School Republican on September 22, 2019, 11:45:47 pm
I'm gonna go with Virginia. Republicans still do 2-5% better here than they do nationally.

This was wrong for even 2004(Unless you lol just look at 1976 and 2004 without considering anything in between)

VA PVI From 1976-2004:


1976: R +3.4
1980: R +3
1984: R +7
1988: R+12.7
1992: R+10
1996: R+10.5
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Make America Malarkey Free Again on September 23, 2019, 04:06:18 pm
Idaho, Nebraska, Alabama, South Carolina, New York, and Massachusetts.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: WeAreDoomed on September 24, 2019, 05:46:11 pm
Eastern Tennessee.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: MarkD on September 25, 2019, 12:36:18 am
Kansas. Maybe Alaska too.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 29, 2019, 03:59:12 pm
Easily South Carolina, not even close. Incredibly resilient R base for a South Atlantic state, virtually no dramatic political or geographical shifts in R/D support within the state over the past three decades, and trended 0.2% R from 1988-2016, 0.0% D/R from 2000-2016, 0.1% R from 2008-2016.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 29, 2019, 04:34:22 pm
Maybe Montana?  Consistent Republican lean at the presidential level since 1952, but a remarkably resilient New Deal style Dem coalition keeping it competitive downballot even into 2018.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: TDAS04 on September 29, 2019, 04:43:55 pm
Since 2000, (and maybe even 1992) a case could be made for Massachusetts.  In each presidential election since 2000, the Democrat carried it by 27, 25, 26, 23, & 27% respectively.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 29, 2019, 04:46:33 pm
Since 2000, (and maybe even 1992) a case could be made for Massachusetts.  In each presidential election since 2000, the Democrat carried it by 27, 25, 26, 23, & 27% respectively.

Yes, but the internal geography of the Dem vote has shifted dramatically.  Dems are anomalously strong everywhere vs. nationwide, but it's still gradually turning into Greater Boston and the college towns vs. everyone else.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: TDAS04 on September 29, 2019, 05:27:59 pm
Since 2000, (and maybe even 1992) a case could be made for Massachusetts.  In each presidential election since 2000, the Democrat carried it by 27, 25, 26, 23, & 27% respectively.

Yes, but the internal geography of the Dem vote has shifted dramatically.  Dems are anomalously strong everywhere vs. nationwide, but it's still gradually turning into Greater Boston and the college towns and western Mass and Martha's Vineyard/Nantucket vs. everyone else.


Maybe Montana?  Consistent Republican lean at the presidential level since 1952, but a remarkably resilient New Deal style Dem coalition keeping it competitive downballot even into 2018.

There's internal geographical shift in Montana too.  East Montana is trending Republican, West Montana is trending relatively Democratic.  


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement on October 03, 2019, 06:09:51 am
over the last 20-30 years, what state has changed the least politically?

id say indiana.

Indiana has traded urban and suburban business Republicans for former white Ohio Valley Democrats turned Republicans. While the net effect has been the same in Presidential results, the party of the moderate, pragmatic Republicans like Dick Lugar is no more. Now they are toxic white culture crusaders flying Confederate flags and pressing for English as our official language.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: darklordoftech on October 03, 2019, 08:12:38 pm
Wyoming doesnt seem to have changed much since it first became a state.


Title: Re: what state has changed the least?
Post by: Ξ on October 04, 2019, 01:25:03 am
Oklahoma, but that may change in the next election.