Talk Elections

What if Sara Jane Moore had been successful in assassinating Gerald Ford, causing Nelson Rockefeller to become president?  In '76 the Democrats nominate Mo Udall, while Reagan doesn't run his IRL campaign because he doesn't think he can beat Rockefeller after the assassination.  With the liberal vote split, could an independent campaign by Reagan achieve victory?

Discuss with maps.

Udall outscores Reagan (in the popular vote), and Reagan outscores Rockefeller. However, election is sent to the House where Udall wins because of a Republican split.

Reagan/Udall

I believe they need a majority of the house (although Dems were a very substantial majority in '76).

I concur.

Reagan was a party man. I doubt he'd bolt the GOP like that- especially after the assassination of a Republican.

Reagan/Udall. Regan could make a comeback in 1980 as a Republican, as in RL.

Who is Reagan's running mate?

Wallace?

Eh . . . James Buckley.

I once read that by 1976, Conservatives felt so desperate, they were actually considering running a Reagan/Wallace ticket.

Other possible VP's:
John Connally
Paul Laxalt
William F Buckley
James L Buckley
Barry Goldwater
Barry Goldwater Jr.

Why are there so many "I-MA"'s on here? Is it because Libertas got banned?

Because wormguy and Dallasfan are actually from Massachusetts and must've switched parties or something; as for Han, I don't know.

The former individual's theory is rather more credible than the latter's.

I heard that too - it was on a special on FOX.

Anywho, Wallace probably maximises Reagan's potential, electoral-vote wise, but marginalizes him to just the South.

Goldwater is too old, but the rest of the picks are low-key, yet plausible.

My take, on a Reagan/Wallace ticket:

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Reagan does well for an independent candidate with no apparatii - Reagan gets the Deep South, while Rockefeller wins Nixonland.

Tossups: Arizona, New Mexico, Missouri, Arkansas, Texas, Alaska.


Cathcon is correct - I'm actively involved (IRL) with the GOP and content for now.

That may change, depending on how the next few years unfold, but it's unlikely.

Even this is a bit of an understatement- the margin was 292 to 143. And they would need a majority of the states' delegations, not a majority of the House as a whole.

Of course, it would be the newly elected house (reflected in the above numbers) that would elect the President. So if the assassination and presidential election had interesting butterfly effects downballot, those numbers could be way off.

Check my sig. You know who I'll back.

A Republican split puts Mo in the White House, a far more capable man for the job than Carter who also had better relations with Congress, something that really helped to hurt Carter's term.

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GOP-288
Dem.-198
Ind.-52

True, but isn't that what the House is? Each delegation has one representative. So it basically does boil down to the House determining the outcome.

No way Rocky takes Cali, my friend.

With the kind of numbers mentioned above, that would certainly hold true. But it is possible for a party to hold a slight majority of House seats, but a minority of states' delegations, if that party's strength is mostly concentrated in larger states. In such a situation, the minority party could elect the president.

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