Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Past Election What-ifs (US) => Topic started by: tpfkaw on September 16, 2010, 06:31:18 pm



Title: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: tpfkaw on September 16, 2010, 06:31:18 pm
Just thought I'd try out this scenario on President Elect* (Reagan has a running mate from OH): the results were somewhat surprising:

Reagan 53, Humphrey 47

Reagan 433, Humphrey 105

()

Three-way with George Wallace:

Reagan 50, Humphrey 45, Wallace 5

Reagan 403, Humphrey 125, Wallace 10

()

Three-way with Eugene McCarthy (running mate from SD ;)):

Reagan 54, Humphrey 41, McCarthy 5

Reagan 513, Humphrey 25

()

*Still IMHO the best presidential election simulator out there.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Apocrypha on September 16, 2010, 06:40:28 pm
Who was the RM from Ohio? James Rhodes?


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: tpfkaw on September 16, 2010, 06:42:32 pm
I had no idea who Reagan would pick as a running mate in 1968. I figured he'd pick a midwesterner.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey on September 16, 2010, 06:49:55 pm
I had no idea who Reagan would pick as a running mate in 1968. I figured he'd pick a midwesterner.

I'd think Reagan would have to choose a moderate running mate to ease tensions within the party that had festered in 1968. Someone like John Volpe, William Scranton, Margaret Chase Smith, or even Nelson Rockefeller.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Apocrypha on September 16, 2010, 06:50:15 pm
John Volpe, James Rhodes, John Sherman Cooper, would all be good choices - but Reagan might pick somebody more low-profile. George Romney would be good - but would have too much baggage.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey on September 16, 2010, 07:01:14 pm
Reagan would need someone with a lot of experience, as he'd have to convince the nation that a man with less than two years' experience as Governor is ready for the Presidency.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Psychic Octopus on September 16, 2010, 07:22:39 pm
I'm confused - did you do this scenario manually, making this your guess, or just recieve them through a simulator? ???

I agree with Han. He would need someone very experienced as his running mate in order to win. Moderate, too. Even then, I'd make Humphrey the favorite in the race; Reagan was too conservative for the country in 1968.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: tpfkaw on September 16, 2010, 07:29:43 pm
I ran it through the simulator.  I personally think it thinks Reagan is too strong of a candidate - it also has him winning in a landslide in '76.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey on September 16, 2010, 07:44:37 pm
Reagan was a good politician though. He'd be able to make his conservatism marketable, and could easily woo voters to vote for him. He would not make Goldwaterite mistakes like criticizing Social Security in Florida or proposing to sell the TVA in Tennessee. That being said, I think he'd win by a closer margin than Nixon. Here's a close election with Wallace in the picture.

()
Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/John Volpe (R-MA): 289 EV
Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 204 EV
George Wallace (AI-AL)/Curtis LeMay (AI-CA)



Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Dr. Cynic on September 16, 2010, 09:34:36 pm
I just ran in through the simulator too. Reagan is very tough to beat in the game. If you turn the war off though and put peace at 6 he can be beaten in 68


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: tpfkaw on September 18, 2010, 01:21:46 pm
I tried running 1964 with Reagan (NY running mate) about 20 times:  This was by far his best showing.  (The results were highly variable - in a couple he did worse than AuH20).

Johnson 50, Reagan 49

Johnson 278, Reagan 260

(AR, IA, MI, NH, TN, and VA were all very close victories for Johnson, WA and NM were very close victories for Reagan).

()


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: When Tables Deserve To Die on September 23, 2010, 07:02:09 pm
Now do Reagan-Kennedy in 1960.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Apocrypha on September 23, 2010, 07:09:12 pm

Two Democrats running against eachother ???


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: When Tables Deserve To Die on September 23, 2010, 07:33:59 pm
Forgot he was a Democrat back then.

Reagan-Nixon.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: tpfkaw on September 23, 2010, 07:46:21 pm
I did it anyway.

Trial 1: Kennedy 51, Reagan 48; Kennedy 342, Reagan 195

(Accidentally closed window, lost map, sorry).

Trial 2: Kennedy 53, Reagan 47; Kennedy 446, Reagan 91

()

Trial 3: Reagan 52, Kennedy 48; Reagan 413, Kennedy 124

()

Trial 3: Kennedy 52, Reagan 48; Kennedy 395, Reagan 142

Trial 4: Kennedy 50, Reagan 50 (Kennedy wins NPV by fewer than 80,000 votes!); Kennedy 280, Reagan 257

()

Trial 5

Reagan 50, Kennedy 49; Kennedy 276, Reagan 261 (pop vote winner loses! and by fewer than 600 votes in NV and 2000 in NM!)

()


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Speaker Perez on October 18, 2010, 06:14:06 pm
Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay

()


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Yelnoc on October 22, 2010, 08:26:56 pm
Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay

()
Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Cath on October 23, 2010, 02:25:41 pm
^^ Yeah. Reagan would be more popular in the South than Nixon, and his original plan to win in 1968 had been to court the Southern delegates away from Nixon. If he got the nomination, he woudl probably do the same thing in the general, with probably about the same or better success than Nixon.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: feeblepizza on October 23, 2010, 02:28:13 pm
Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay

()
Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Cath on October 23, 2010, 03:03:24 pm
Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay

()
Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?

I assume you'te being sarcastic. I think you already know that on this forum, Democrats are red and Republicans are blue.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: feeblepizza on October 23, 2010, 09:14:12 pm
Reagan's Conservative platform was not as popular as it is today. Even in California, he was almost recalled. Humphrey would have won.
Humphrey/Muskie
Reagan/Rhodes
Wallace/Lemay

()
Why does Wallace do so much better in your scenario?

Why does Humphrey win Indiana and Reagan carry Massachusetts?

I assume you'te being sarcastic. I think you already know that on this forum, Democrats are red and Republicans are blue.

No, I'm not being sarcastic. The color code at the top states that states colored in blue have been won by Humphrey, and the states colored in red have been won by Reagan.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Cath on October 23, 2010, 09:19:23 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: feeblepizza on October 23, 2010, 09:25:05 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

Kennedy by a million miles.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Cath on October 23, 2010, 09:25:59 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

Kennedy by a million miles.

Ooooooh Yeeeaaaah.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: RIP Robert H Bork on October 23, 2010, 09:30:34 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

No way JFK and Reagan appear on 1 ticket.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey on October 23, 2010, 09:33:28 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

Kennedy by a million miles.

Ooooooh Yeeeaaaah.

Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Ken-ne-dy for me! Kennedy! Kennedy! Kennedy! Kennedy! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DoUiNxh6_0&feature=related)


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: tpfkaw on October 23, 2010, 09:38:43 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

I thought IRL 1968 was as bad as it gets . . .


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey on October 23, 2010, 10:08:19 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

I thought IRL 1968 was as bad as it gets . . .

JFK wasn't that bad; he was arguably good. Plus Reagan makes up for it on the ticket.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Cath on October 24, 2010, 07:43:50 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

No way JFK and Reagan appear on 1 ticket.

Are you attempting to insult the most awesome bipartisan ticket in the hsitory of alternate history?


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: feeblepizza on October 24, 2010, 07:47:10 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

No way JFK and Reagan appear on 1 ticket.

Are you attempting to insult the most awesome bipartisan ticket in the hsitory of alternate history?

I think he's stating that a Kennedy/Reagan ticket - in 1968 - would be unlikely.


Title: Re: 1968: Humphrey vs. Reagan
Post by: Cath on October 24, 2010, 08:36:20 pm
Anybody wanna do a JFK/Reagan vs. Rockefeller/Romney? I know who I'd vote for.

No way JFK and Reagan appear on 1 ticket.

Are you attempting to insult the most awesome bipartisan ticket in the hsitory of alternate history?

I think he's stating that a Kennedy/Reagan ticket - in 1968 - would be unlikely.

Well, of course, Kennedy would be dead, but we're talking about an "alternate" 1968. Someone once commented on  JFK vs Reagan matchup that in today's world, they'd probably be on the same ticket, and I thought "What if..."