Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: Bo on June 30, 2010, 02:05:11 pm



Title: OR, 1868
Post by: Bo on June 30, 2010, 02:05:11 pm
How come Seymour won this state in 1868? It was typically a Republican state during this time, yet Grant (a popular war hero) managed to somehow lose it. How come?


Title: Re: OR, 1868
Post by: rbt48 on July 05, 2010, 10:41:10 am
While Oregon was Republican, it wasn't overwhelmingly so.  Recall that OR senator Joseph Lane was Breckenridge's running mate in 1860, through Lincoln did barely carry the state with 36% of the vote.  Except for 1904, when Roosevelt got 67% of the vote, Republican margins in Presidential elections were normally just over 50% (though they did carry the state 10 straight times from 1872 to 1908). http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/Oregon_pv.pdf (http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/Oregon_pv.pdf) But during the Civil War years, it was fairly evenly split, having been represented by Democrats in the Senate for most of the conflict. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Oregon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Oregon)

All that being said, Seymour's margin in 1868 was only 164 votes out of 22,086 cast, or a margin of 0.64%.  It's perhaps worth noting that Grant carried California by just 0.48%, so it seems his strength in the far West was not overwhelming.  As for Seymour's relatively good showings out West, I cannot explain them beyond what I have already presented here.