Talk Elections

After a life-threatening heart attack in May 2004, Vice President Dick Cheney announces he will not seek or accept the Republican nomination as their candidate for Vice President in 2004.  Several weeks later, President George W. Bush announces his replacement; Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani. 

Blah blah blah they win in 2004 blah blah blah

Rudy runs in 2008, wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, and his opponents fall apart.  He selects a conservative, Senator John Thune, as his running mate to counter claims he is not conservative enough.

How does this election turn out? 

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394-144

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376-162
Obama 56%
Giuliani 44%

I don't think Giuliani would've wanted to play second fiddle to Bush for 4 years. He would've been tied to all of the negatives that happened in Bush's second term. A more likely VP for Bush in 2004 would have been Bill Frist.

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Obama 404-134

Low GOP turnout flips a few states.

A lot of Bush's advisers wanted to drop Cheney; he flat out told them no.

If he had done it, Rudy was his top pick though.

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Obama 410-128

I think it's unlikely Bush Jr. would have been reelected with a pro-choicer as his VP, but following your scenario, Obama wins in a massive landslide because he could easily tie Giulani to Bush Jr.'s unpopulairty (and do an even better job on that than he did with McCain, as Giulain is Bush Jr.'s VP). Also, Giuliani's support of abortion would cause a lot of moral/Evangelical voters to stay home. Finally, Giualini's corruption allegations and lack of charisma will also hurt him.

Giuliani solidly loses the Dakotas with John Thune on the ticket? Thune doesn't even have a willing opponent in his Senate race this year.

Oh sorry, that was a mistake. I meant to have both Dakotas vote for Obama in the 40s. There, I fixed it.

This.

I don't think Rudy would have wanted to do it is what I'm saying. He would be overqualified in terms of what he handled as mayor of NYC and he would also not want to be just a continuation of Bush at the end of 8 years. I didn't know alot of people wanted to drop Cheney? Bush appointed Cheney to run his VP team in 2000 and Cheney picked himself.

How does the Republican ticket lose them at all with someone as popular there as John Thune on it?

The Dakotas won't be voting democrat any time soon. Obama wasn't really going to win them.

Obama lost both Dakotas by high single digits. Due to Giuliani's support of abortion, many Evangelicals/pro-lifers would either stay home or vote third party (or vote for Obama, if they are liberal on economics). Thus, I could see the Dakotas flipping to Obama in a race against Giuliani. Not to mention taht McCain amanged to distance himself from Bush a little. As Bush's VP, Giuliani would have been unable to do that.

Yeah, but John Thune is on the ticket. You keep ignoring that point.

Even McCain got tied to Bush. Bush was so unpopular that if Rudy really was Bush's running mate in 2004 and the nominee in 2008, then I think just about anything is up for grabs for Obama. Texas could go his way and even most of the south. I don't know if Giuliani breaks 100.

I don't think Thune would have saved Giuliani in SD. Edwards didn't prevent Kerry from losing NC by double-digits.

A) Edwards was nowhere near as popular in NC as Thune is in SD.

B) SD is already a strong Republican state; they don't need to flip Democrats to win. Edwards would have had to flip a lot of Republican voters in 2004 to win NC.

In this scenario, Giulaini is essentially a pro-abortion Dick Cheney. I seriously doubt Cheney would have managed to wi SD in 2008 even with Thune as VP, and at least Cheney was pro-life. Thus, I seriously doubt Giuliani would have won SD even with Thune as VP.

Thune would have saved Giuliani in SD because SD is a GOP state. NC is a GOP state for the most part and Edwards was a democrat. That's the difference.

Ferraro didn't save Mondale in NY in 1984, and NY was a very Democratic state at the time (voting for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1980 were exceptions).

Again, not even remotely comparable. Ferraro was a Representative with little statewide name recognition in NY, and 1984 was a mega-landslide for the GOP.

John Thune is an extremely popular statewide figure in South Dakota to the point where there is nobody even willing to challenge him this year.

Fine. Then give SD and possibly ND to Giuliani. Obama would still win in a massive landslide even without those two states.

AKA "Mr. Psuedo-Republican", a corrupt liberal and also Bush's VP?

He doesn't even win 100 EVs.

yea I don't see him doing well at all