South African local government elections - August 3, 2016

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21% reporting:

ANC 50.11%
DA 34.8%
EFF 5.73%
IFP 2.85%
VF+ 1.28%

Gauteng, however, trails far behind at just 12% with very very early results still from Joburg, Pretoria. Cape Town is a bit quicker, with 22% reporting, and it is a DA landslide so far, 68-22. Port Elizabeth is also too early to tell.

There seems to be very different reporting rate shown for District, Local and Ward elections respectively, at least, here

http://www.news24.com/elections/results/lge#map=live&election=dc

How should I read it?

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But which votes are those? Ward or PR?

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I think we are getting to the point where South African elections will start becoming competitive. No party will ever have the sort of a performance ANC has had in the past.  In a largely PR system outright majorities will be rare - I doubt DA will regularly get even 40% of the vote. But once ANC starts droping under 50% elections are properly contested. An opposition coalition should become possible within the next 10 years.

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But what is the life expectancy of a DA/EFF coalition? Months or weeks?

At this rate, South Africa will become another Israel where minor parties with a handful of seats could hold the government hostage. Would this lead to calls for electoral reform to drive out minor parties?

DA/EFF? I do not know. First it will be ANC/EFF or ANC whatever minor minions are there. Then, some time later, it will be a coalition of a bunch of minor parties against ANC. First time it will survive for 10 months. But after a few years, when even ANC/EFF + a few minor parties will not have a majority, it will become more stable. Look at India.

BTW, also look at India to see why a mere electoral reform would not work. South Africa is not India, but it is geographically diverse enough that moving from PR to a stronger majoritarian system would not eliminate minor parties. This is normal and is for the good.

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So, final results in the metros (change from 2011 in brackets):

Cape Town DA hold
DA 66.61% (+5.69) 154 seats (+19)
ANC 24.36% (-6.44) 57 seats (-16)
EFF 3.17% (+3.17) 7 seats (+7)
ACDP 1.21% (-0.01) 3 seats (nil)
ALJAMA 0.66% (+0.29) 2 seats (+1)
AIC 0.59% (+0.59) 1 seat (+1)
VF+ 0.41% (+0.23) 1 seat (nil)
DI 0.30% (+0.30) 1 seat (+1)
UDM 0.26% (-0.13) 1 seat (nil)
CMC  0.26% (-0.03) 1 seat (nil)
PAC 0.25% (+0.04) 1 seat (nil)
COPE 0.25% (-0.86) 1 seat (-2)
PA 0.20% (+0.20) 1 seat (+1)

NP and AMP lost one seat each and are eliminated.

Remarkably, DA now holds Cape Town with a sort of a majority that ANC could not achieve this time in any of the other metros. Quite a feat!

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Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth) ANC loss to NOC

DA 46.71% (+6.58) 57 seats (+9)
ANC 40.92% (-10.99) 50 seats (-13)
EFF 5.12% (+5.12) 6 seats (+6)
UDM 1.91% (+1.39) 2 seats (+1)
AIC 0.95% (+0.95) 1 seat  (+1)
UFEC 0.94% (+0.94) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.73% (-4.22) 1 seat (-5)
ACDP 0.36% (-0.02) 1 seat (nil)
PA 0.27% (+0.27) 1 seat (+1)

PAC lost its only seat

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Tshwane (Pretoria) ANC loss to NOC

DA 43.11% (+4.46) 93 seats (+11)
ANC 41.22% (-14.10) 89 seats (-29)
EFF 11.70 (+11.70) 25 seats (+25)
VF+ 1.99% (+0.33) 4 seats (nil)
ACDP 0.49% (-0.14) 1 seat (nil)
COPE 0.24% (-0.66) 1 seat (-1)
PAC 0.17% (-0.09) 1 seat (nil)

APC and APO lost one seat each and got eliminated

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Johannesburg ANC loss to NOC

ANC 44.55% (-14.11) 121 seats (-32)
DA 38.37% (+3.75) 104 seats (+14)
EFF 11.09 (+11.09) 30 seats (+30)
IFP 1.72% (+0.09) 5 seats (+1)
AIC 1.50% (+1.50) 4 seats (+4)
VF+ 0.34% (+0.09) 1 seat (nil)
ACDP 0.30% (-0.15) 1 seat (nil)
ALJAMA 0.27% (+0.03) 1 seat (nil)
UDM 0.26% (+0.03) 1 seat (nil)
COPE 0.18% (-0.97) 1 seat (-2)
PA 0.15% (+0.15) 1 seat (+1)

NFP lost 2 seats, APC, PAC, APO and OKM lost 1 seat each and all got eliminated.

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Ekurhuleni (East Rand) ANC loss to NOC

ANC 48.64% (-12.99) 109 seats (-14)
DA 33.65% (+3.36) 77 seats (+15)
EFF 11.23% (+11.23) 25 seats (+25)
AIC 1.64% (+1.64) 4 seats (+4)
IFP 1.02% (-0.08) 2 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.89% (+0.34) 2 seats (+1)
ACDP 0.43% (-0.20) 1 seat (nil)
PAC 0.42% (-0.26) 1 seat (-1)
PA 0.27% (+0.27) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.26% (-0.68) 1 seat (-1)
IRASA 0.24% (-0.31) 1 seat (nil)

NFP lost 3 seats, APC and DRPA lost one seat each, all got eliminated.

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eThekwini (Durban) ANC hold

ANC 56.01% (-5.06) 126 seats (nil)
DA 26.66% (+5.64) 61 seats (+18)
IFP 4.2% (+0.07) 10 seats (+1)
EFF 3.44% (+3.44) 8 seats (+8)
AIC 1.37% (+1.37) 3 seats (+3)
ACDP 0.54% (-0.20) 1 seat (-1)
MF 0.53% (-4.78) 1 seat (-10)
DLC 0.52% (+0.52) 1 seat (+1)
TA 0.41% (-0.31%) 1 seat (nil)
MOSA 0.31% (+0.31) 1 seat (+1)
APC 0.21% (-0.09) 1 seat (nil)
ALJAMA 0.19% (+0.19) 1 seat (+1)
Independents 4.2%, 4 seats (+3)

NFP lost 10 seats, COPE lost 1 seat, both got eliminated.

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Mangaung (Bloemfontein) ANC hold

ANC 56.52% (-9.75) 58 seats (-7)
DA 25.96% (-1.15) 27 seats (+1)
EFF 8.66 (+8.66) 9 seats  (+9)
VF+ 1.92 (+0.41) 2 seats (nil)
AIC 1.69% (+1.69) 2 seats (+1)
ANA 0.89% (+0.89) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.60% (-2.56%) 1 seat (-2)

APC lost its only seat

Is the DA decline there just because of the merger?

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Buffalo (East London) ANC hold

ANC 58.74% (-11.27) 60 seats (-11)
DA 23.40% (+2.92) 24 seats (+3)
EFF 7.97% (+7.97) 8 seats (+8)
AIC 3.42% (+3.42) 4 seats (+2)?
PAC 0.90% (-0.99) 1 seat (-1)
UDM 0.87% (+0.24) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.86% (-2.00) 1 seat (-2)
ACDP 0.55% (-0.20) 1 seat (nil)

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So, I think it would be interesting to catalog municipalities that are not in ANC hands at this point (DA, IFP, or NOC). Most, of course, are in WC, but there are some elsewhere.

Western Cape: here ANC now controls nothing.

Besides the Cape Town (DA hold with supermajority) we have:

Matzikama: DA gain from NOC: DA 8, ANC 5, UD 1, EFF 1
Cederberg: DA gain from NOC: DA 6, ANC 4, ADC 1
Bergrivier: DA hold: DA 9, ANC 4
Witzenberg: NOC hold: DA 11, ANC 8, WP 1, ICOSA 1, EFF 1, COPE 1
Saldanha Bay: DA hold: DA 17, ANC 8, EFF 1, SRA-SIA 1
Swartland: DA hold: DA 16, ANC 6, EFF 1
Drakenstein: DA hold: DA 43, ANC 15, EFF 2, PDM 1, ACDP 1, FD 1, ICOSA 1, VF+ 1
Stellenbosch: DA hold: DA 30, ANC 8, EFF 2, DNCA 1, PDM 1, ACDP 1
Breede Valley: DA hold: DA 22, ANC 12, BO 4, EFF 1, VF+ 1, PDM 1
Theewaterskloof: DA hold: DA 14, ANC 10, UFEC 1, EFF 1, ICOSA 1
Overstrand: DA hold: DA 16, ANC 8, EFF 1
Cape Agulhas: DA gain from NOC: DA 6, ANC 3, DLRP 1, KAPCO 1
Swellendam: DA gain from NOC: DA 6, ANC 5
Langeberg: DA gain from NOC: DA 12, ANC 6, PDM 1, COPE 1, LIP 1, ICOSA 1, EFF 1
Hessequa: NOC hold: ANC 8, DA 8, VF+ 1
Kannaland: NOC hold: ICOSA 3, DA 2, ANC 2
Laingsburg: NOC hold: ANC 3, DA 3, KOP 1
Beafort West: NOC gain from ANC: DA 6, ANC 6, KDF 1
Prince Albert: NOC hold: DA 3, KGP 2, ANC 2
Oudshoorn: DA gain from NOC: DA 14, ANC 7, ICOSA 2, SARCO 1, EFF 1
Mossel Bay: DA hold: DA 17, ANC 7, ICOSA 1, VF+1, ACDP 1
George: DA hold: DA 29, ANC 16, PBI 2, EFF 1, ICOSA 1, VF+ 1, ACDP 1, AIC 1, SAC 1
Knysna: NOC gain from DA: DA 10, ANC 7, COPE 1, KUC 1, ACDP 1, Independent 1
Bitou: NOC hold: DA 6, ANC 6, AUF 1

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Eastern Cape:

Besides the Nelson Mandela Bay metro (NOC gain from ANC), there is also

Kouga: DA gain from ANC: DA 17, ANC 12

Northern Cape:

Kgatelopele: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 3, DA 2, KCF 2
Nama Khoi: NOC hold: ANC 8, DA 7, KSR 1, COPE 1
Ubuntu: NOC hold: ANC 3, DA 2, Independent 2

Northwest:

Rustenburg: NOC gain from ANC : ANC 43, EFF 24, DA 14, F4SD 4, AIC 1, VF+1, UDM 1, BCM 1

Free State:

Metsimaholo: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 19, DA 12, EFF 8, MCA 2, VF+1

Gauteng:

Besides the three metros Tshwane (NOC gain from ANC), Johannesburg (NOC gain from ANC) and Ekurhuleni (NOC gain from ANC) there are also:

Midvaal: DA hold: DA 17, ANC 9, EFF 2, VF+1
Mogale City: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 38, DA 27, EFF 9, VF+ 2, IFP 1

Limpopo

Thabazimbi: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 10, EFF 5, DA 5, TRA 2, VF+ 1
Modimolle/Mookgopong: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 13, DA 7, EFF 6, VF+ 2

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This leaves us KwaZulu-Natal

Jozini: NOC hold: ANC 19, IFP 18, EFF 1, DA 1, Independent 1
Nongoma: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 22, ANC 13, DA 5, EFF 2
Hluhluwe/Somkele: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 13, ANC 11, DA 1
Mtubatuba: NOC hold: IFP 18, ANC 18, DA 2, EFF 1, AIC 1
eDumbe: NOC gain from NFP: ANC 8, DA 5, IFP 3
Abaqulusi: NOC hold: ANC 21, IFP 19, DA 3, EFF 1
Ulundi: IFP hold: IFP 35, ANC 11, EFF 1
Mthonjaneni: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 14, ANC 10, EFF 1
Nquthu: NOC hold: IFP 15, ANC 14, NFP 2, EFF 1, DA 1
Nkandla: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 15, ANC 12
Msinga: IFP hold IFP 24, ANC 12
Endumeni: NOC hold ANC 6, IFP 4, DA 2, EFF 1
Estcourt/Loskop: NOC hold ANC 23, IFP 18, DA 2, ALJAMA 2, EFF 1

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So, some newspapers have speculated that DA and EFF may choose to align, especially in Gauteng. Thoughts on the likelihood of this? Is it likely to go poorly and backfire on the opposition parties?

They seem to be talking.

And ANC is discussing "reforming" the proportional representation.

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Apparently, Tshwane municipal employees are all extremely nervous - in expectation of a wholesale purge by the new DA administration. At the very least (whether DA has any intention of doing any purge or not), it seems that a DA-led administration in Tshwane is viewed very likely.

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First coalition deals about to be announced. So far, it is in the WC, where DA has got coalition partners to form non-ANC administrations where it did not get a majority outright.

In Prince Albert it will be a KGP-DA administration (with a KGP mayor) and in Laingsburg DA will support a KOP member for mayor. KDF, KGP, KOP and DA will co-govern Central Karoo district municipality (with KDF getting the mayoralty). In exchange, DA gets to appoint the mayor in previously ANC-governed Beaufort West (with KDF support).

ANC one coalition-building success in WC so far is a tentative agreement with AUF to govern Bitou.

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DA and EFF, apparently, are negotiating a package deal - whether it works, is not clear. DA is offering EFF to support its governments in the Limpopo municipalities of Modimolle and Thabazimbi (though both would require support of minor parties, including VF+!).  It also is offering EFF appointments in mayoral committees in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni. Hard to say if any of this would lead anywhere. EFF, however, have "ruled out" ANC deals.

Of course, DA does not need EFF to govern Nelson Mandela Bay. The rumor is, UDM (2 seats) has agreed to go into the DA-led coalition, so it requires only 2 more minor parties with 1 member each to get to the majority.

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In a shocker, it seems, DA and ANC have agreed to co-govern Kannaland (with the mayoralty going to ANC!) ICOSA got 48% of the vote there and 3 out of 7 seats on the council.

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So, here are the 10 non-WC municipalities where DA got the highest vote share. Perhaps, somebody could explain what these are?

1. Midvaal, Gauteng. DA 59.7%. Has a large white population (38.7% - blacks are 58.4%, so a good share of them voted DA). Most common languages are Afrikaans (30.9%), Sotho (27.9%), English (14%) and Zulu (11.8%)

2. Kouga, Eastern Cape. DA 56.49%. A largely coloured suburb of Port Elizabeth.  Coloured 42.6%, black 38.8%, white 17.6%. Very Afrikaans - 59.4%. Also Xhosa (30.5%) and English (6.5%) are spoken.

3. Nelson Mandela Bay, Eastern Cape. DA 46.71%. Port Elizabeth itself. Blacks are 60.1% here - so DA did get a chunk of that vote for sure. The rest is mostly coloured (23.6%) or white (14.1%). Common languages are Xhosa (53.9%), Afrikaans (29.3%) and English (13.5%).

4. Camdeboo, Eastern Cape (I guess, this is now the larger Dr Beyers Naudé municipality, so demographics are given for it). DA 46.59%. Very coloured (66.9%) and Afrikaans (80.3%). Blacks are 23.6% whites only 8.7%. 14.8% speak Xhosa and only 3.2% speak English.

5. Richtersveld, Northern Cape. DA 46.28%. On the border with Namibia. Even more colored (76.6%) and Afrikaans (87%). The rest is mostly black (13.1%) and Xhosa (6.1%), but not much of either.

6. Kou-Kamma, Eastern Cape. DA 43.66%. On the border with WC. Again, mostly coloured (59.8%) and Afrikaans (73.8%). Somewhat more blacks (30.6%) and Xhosa (19.9%) than above, but not much.

7. Tshwane, Gauteng.  DA 43.15%. Pretoria. Overwhelmingly black (75.4%), most of the remainder white (20.1%). Linguistically split, with 19.9% speaking Northern Sotho, 18.8% Afrikaans, 15% Tswana 8.6% Tsonga and the remaining 37% any number of the other South African tongues. You cannot blame this one on the coloureds: urban black vote is clearly defecting here, as it does in PE.

8. Renosterberg, Northern Cape. DA 41.74%. Another mostly coloured (57.4%) and Afrikaans (71.4%) place. Blacks are 32.9% and Xhosa is spoken by 24%.

9. uMngeni, KwaZulu-Natal.  DA 41.12%. Shockingly a black (75%) Zulu (64.3%) place that sent its anti-ANC vote to DA, not toIFP. 19.4% of the population is white and full 25.5% speaks English. But, still... Can somebody explain?

10. Nama Khoi, Northern Cape. DA 41.01%. Another overwhelmingly coloured (88.1%) Afrikaans (95.9%) place on the Namibian border. No other group makes any significant numbers here.

In every other place DA is under 40%.

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As for the worst municipalities, DA is under 2% in 10 of these. 9 worst ones are in KwaZulu/Natal (many of them are IFP strongholds, including Ulundi - and even in the rest IFP is the main opposition) and the remaining one (Engcobo) is in the former Transkei part of the Eastern Cape (the largest non-ANC party here is, actually, UDM). No real surprizes here. In none of these did EFF get even to 4%, so that is not where the opposition vote goes in such places.

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The 10 best municiaplities for EFF are

1. Polokwane, Limpopo (28.21%)
2. Rustenburg, Northwest (26.76%)
3. Lepele-Nkumpi, Limpopo (24.2%)
4. Makhuduthamanga, Limpopo (21.73%)
5. Moses Kotane, Northwest (20.99%)
6. Molemole, Limpopo (20.82%)
7. Nala, Free State (20.26%)
8. Thabazimbi, Limpopo (20.24%)
9. Joe Morolong, Northern Cape (19.87%)
10. Mogalakwena, Limpopo (19.84%)


In 8 municipalities EFF got under 1% of the vote. 5 of these are in WC, in some cases  places with strong local parties in addition to DA (Hessequa, Laingsburg, Prince Albert, Cederberg and Swellendam). Kouga is the DA stronghold in EC. And the KwaZulu municipalities of Msinga and Nkandla have IFP majorities.

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ANC is still untouchable in many places in the former homelands. Its 10 strongest municipalities are overwhelming.

1. Impendle, KwaZulu/Natal (89.4%)
2. Umzimkulu, KwaZulu/Natal (86.22%)
3. Ntabankulu, Eastern Cape (85.11)
4. Ngqushwa, Eastern Cape (84.4%)
5. something listed by the electoral commission as a "New Municipality" in Limpopo (84.14%)
6. Elundini, Eastern Cape (83.79%)
7. Nyandeni, Eastern Cape (83.59%)
8. Chief Albert Luthuli, Mpumalanga (83.49%)
9. Ngquiza Hill, Eastern Cape (83.49%)
10. Engcobo, Eastern Cape (83.3%)

Of the 10 worst ANC places 9 are in WC, and the remaining 1 is Ulundi in Kwazulu - no surprizes at all. These are

1. Stellenbosch, WC (19.66%)
2. Kannaland, WC (21.51%) - still more surprizing that this will be the 1 place they rule in WC!
3. Ulundi, KZN (23.2%)
4. Drakenstein, WC (23.59%)
5. Swartland, WC (23.86%)
6. Cape Town, WC (24.12%)
7. Matzikama, WC (26.22%)
8. Langeberg (26.31%)
9. Mossel Bay (26.43%)
10. Oudtshoorn (27.18%)

Ignoring WC, the 10 worst ANC places are

1. Ulundi, KZN (23.2%)
2. Nongoma, KZN (30.84%)
3. Msinga, KZN (31.87%)
4. Midvaal, Gauteng (32.08%)
5. Kouga, EC (40.57%)
6. Nelson Mandela Bay, EC (40.92%)
7. Mthonjaneni, KZN (40.94%)
8. Tshwane, Gauteng (41.25%)
9. Nqutu, KZN (42.02%)
10. Ubuntu, NC (42.04%)

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Coalition negotiations are about to be resolved.

At 12 noon South African time EFF holds its press-conference
AT 2:30 PM it is the DA national leadership turn.
At 3:30 PM the DA candidate in NMB will be making his own announcement.

No word, yet, from ANC.