SD-Mason Dixon/Keloland TV: Trump +7

[cinyc]

This is a Mason-Dixon poll of 400 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the election, so probably LVs.  It was conducted October 18-20:

http://assets.keloland.com/images/docs/default-source/Elections/keloland-campaign-2016-poll/2016poll_howpollconducted.pdf?sfvrsn=4

[cinyc]

Quite off from cinyc's Google poll.

Guess we'll see who's right.

The answer will likely be somewhere in the middle.  Mason-Dixon doesn't appear to have pushed undecideds as much as I did by omitting the answer entirely.  

But I'd trust a Mason-Dixon poll over a one-question Google Consumer Survey poll any day.  The one-question GCS polls are fraught with every possible methodological polling error - no real RV screen, no real LV screen, no real proof all respondents are from the state, etc., etc., etc.  You get what you pay for.

[cinyc]

It is beginning to look like 2008... maybe Hillary Clinton would make appearances in Sioux Falls and Rapid City if she saw Senator Thune vulnerable.

Thune is running up against a no-name Democrat with little or no money.  He's safe.