Trends of the States

[Derek]

If you're bored which way do you see the states trending at the state and federal levels? Notice I said trend and not voting in the next election per say.

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[Derek]

Hmm what about TX and AZ do you see as trending to the left? I'm curious.

[Derek]

I see the Northern states, many of which are losing population and electoral votes, trending GOP, while fast-growing states in the Sunbelt I see trending Democratic.

Yes but many of the New Yorkers who are moving south are doing so because they are conservative. I know Hannity is encouraging NY and NJ Republicans to move to FL to change the EV.

[Derek]

Hmm what about TX and AZ do you see as trending to the left? I'm curious.

Increasing Hispanic populations probably.

Yep, the reason I see them trending left is due to increasing Latino (and to a lesser extent) Asian populations. Immigrants and minorities typically tend to vote Democratic, so that should make AZ and TX more Democratic in the future.

In that case the GOP needs to defeat the democrats for a decade in order to make that party switch stances on some of the issues. Once one liberal moves in they all move in and pretty soon you're over run with the liberal types. They send their kids to our schools and their ideology rubs off on our conservative students. The next thing you know they'll be wanting to tell us where we can and can't decorate for Christmas.

[Derek]

I can see Nevada and Colorado become democrat states in 20 years but not Texas or Arizona.

[Derek]

My guess, although there are some states that I really couldn't decide on:

Do you think there will be any long-term effects of Arizona's recent anti-immigrant policies? Even since 2008, the state seems to be swinging pretty hard toward the hardline GOP, plus a lot of immigrants are leaving the state.

No, I see it dividing the state along racial lines which is unfortunate, but the law is very popular in that state.

[Derek]

If Texas goes the way of old yeller I won't have a place to retire to.

[Derek]

I suppose this would be my guess:

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?

I'm not very sure on Kansas, but Texas is real possibility considering the influx of hispanic immigration that traditionally favors Democrats.  Arizona depends on who will win out in the most recent immigration debate: those in support of stronger border enforcement of those who are against it.  I also see the rustbelt trending GOP due to decrease in population (especially in places like Minnesota and Michigan).

And PA, which is just super. Michigan will never be GOP because Detroit is full of blacks, who vote Dem despite nothing getting better.

Wow, what part of PA are you from anyhow? I'm in Pittsburgh.

[Derek]

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :

I don't think so.

[Derek]

My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

[Derek]

My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

No I don't.  I believe that balanced budgets are a great thing to have, but not at the expense of the welfare of the poor and the elderly.  A civil society is more important than a balanced budget.  I think that the Tea Party is eerily reminiscent of the Know Nothing Party of the 1850's and if the Republican Party doesn't reign them end then the GOP will begin to lose respect from anybody with even half a mind.  The GOP needs to make it clear that they are not the "Tea Party" Party and instead move to take more moderate positions on economic issues and liberal positions on social issues.   But this question is unrelated to how the states are trending so it should be discussed no further. 

I can see it dividing the GOP but also see alot of independents joining it and even conservative democrats. The GOP balanced the budget in the 90's and still managed to include social security and unemployment benefits.

[Derek]

My Prediction:  Essentially, Democratic leaning areas will be trending more Republican and Republican leaning areas will be treanding Democratic.  I expect that in 20-40 years, the South, New England, and West Coast will be among the most competitive areas in the nations.  Maybe with California or New York becoming the "ultimate" swing state.  I think that after this tea-party nonsense dies down the moderate wing of the Republican party will start to rise and begin to attract upper-middle class voters who are traditionally economically moderate and socially liberal.

Hmm, you don't like the tea party?

No I don't.  I believe that balanced budgets are a great thing to have, but not at the expense of the welfare of the poor and the elderly.  A civil society is more important than a balanced budget.  I think that the Tea Party is eerily reminiscent of the Know Nothing Party of the 1850's and if the Republican Party doesn't reign them end then the GOP will begin to lose respect from anybody with even half a mind.  The GOP needs to make it clear that they are not the "Tea Party" Party and instead move to take more moderate positions on economic issues and liberal positions on social issues.   But this question is unrelated to how the states are trending so it should be discussed no further. 

I can see it dividing the GOP but also see alot of independents joining it and even conservative democrats. The GOP balanced the budget in the 90's and still managed to include social security and unemployment benefits.

But the Tea Party only appeals to working class, Conservative Christian, white voters a demographic that is shrinking rapidly and being replaced with moderate suburban, upper middle class Whites.

That's because everyone else has a locked mindset. I consider what you're saying a good thing.

[Derek]

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :

I don't think so.

Could you develop, please ?

Arizona's enforcement of immigration, Texas' new school books, I lived in FL and it's about the most socially conservative place in the country. Those colors are all false.

[Derek]

Here's my guess (for years around 2015-2020) :

I don't think so.

Could you develop, please ?

Arizona's enforcement of immigration, Texas' new school books, I lived in FL and it's about the most socially conservative place in the country. Those colors are all false.

In the case you didn't notice, this thread is about things could evolve in the future, not about what they are as of now.

I started this thread. As of now which way do you think the states are going. Not in the future. Cute though.

[Derek]

Here's what I think it will be ten years from now (2020):

Mainly, I think the GOP will become more socially moderate and appeal more to professionals, additionally I think they'll moderate rhetorically and make gains with minorities. On the other hand, Democrats will gain in rural farming areas and the working-class south. Furthermore, as the rust belt working-class areas lose factory and union workers, Republicans will naturally make gains.

I agree with the latest part there, but this is more for which way you see the states trending as we speak. People are looking too far ahead.

[Derek]

You still see the Dakotas moving to the right? Why Kansas? Other than that I pretty much agree.