Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Oryxslayer]

So should we take this as some sort of shift away from the League and M5S back towards the left, or was Frailis a really strong candidate?

Probably the latter, there is also localism at play. National polling suggests that there is almost a majority for the right percent-wise, and a clear majority seat wise. This is thanks to Lega of course, so how much this trend benefits Italy has yet to be seen. It's also possible the seat was a M5S-Left battleground before, so M5S losing votes to the Right pushes the left ahead.

[Oryxslayer]

Lega has successfully made themselves the preferred option for a good number of M5S voters. One has to imagine that calling early elections and forming a pure right government is in the back of Salvini's mind right now.

[Oryxslayer]

What exactly is Berlusconi aiming for in the next few years?

Well he's currently going to sit in the EU Parliament, which may be his 'retirement home' unless Lega falls apart or he successfully shuffles his positions to copy Salvini, and the voters accept such a shift.

Bringing up Berlusconi though is important to the discussion of how much Legas rise is do to their own success. In some way Salvini is merely the new master of Berlusconi's machine. One can't forget the man used anti-elite, anti-corruption, and anti-government populism before it was the hip new thing to become the default PM of Italy. There was always at least 40% of the vote waiting for him, usually more until M5S supplanted his movement. In this regard then, the current position of Salvini and Co is merely a return to the established system that began in the 90s, expect anti-migrant populism is also attached to Berlusconi's old political machine.

[Oryxslayer]

So Lega+Fdi+Forza have recently been polling above 50%...which would be a landslide in new electoral system. This isn't the first poll to show this as well. Considering how fractured the opposition appears, Salvini has to be lining up the cards for a snap election...right?

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1145771036077694976?s=19

[Oryxslayer]

Right now, Legga is polling at about 38%, with their previous allies of Forza and FDI both combining for about 15%. If there is to be a new election, the majority right now will stand at close to 400 seats for the combined right, doubling what would be won by the other parties. I don't this this will stand and Lega&Co will probably drop, but it will be interesting if such a result emerges. Oh, if the 38% stands and nobody else can contest that majority, then Lega may be able to get enough seats on its own...

Salvini truly has inherited the Burlusconi machine. 

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a possibility that M5S could just form a new Government with PD to avoid Snap elections and punish Salvini?

Theoretically? Yes. Realistically, Renzi still holds a ton of sway over the party and the "Never team up will M5S" is still very prevalent, especially when you are the weaker partner. Zingaretti would likely not even back a technocratic government considering how toxic such a temporary thing would be. Oh, and there's the desire to punish M5S and get better numbers for PD on the left, a very powerful motive in the personality driven politics of Italy.

I think every non-M5S has a reason to support a new election now. PD+the minors can be seen above, Lega for the obvious reasons, FdI to enter government, and Forza to get the election ASAP, because the longer the legislature gets dragged out, the more Forza is going to keep sliding in the polls as their partisans move to Lega.

[Oryxslayer]

So in essence it is immigration why Salvini is so popular and other issues like flat tax and looser gun laws are side issues that people care less about?  I do know Italy doesn't have the same history with immigration as many other Western European countries do who have had large immigrant populations in their major cities for decades, its more a recent phenemenon unlike say UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, and France.

That being said is their any chance he would take Italy out of the Euro or call a referendum to leave the EU.  I would think after how poorly Brexit is going and with Italy even being more integrated (part of Scheghen and Euro unlike UK), leaving the EU would not have majority support.  Another side issue while largely symbolism, I noticed last time I visited Italy, almost every government building would fly the Italian and EU flags so being a strong nationalist does he still have EU flag in background when speaking like Macron and Merkel do, or like Orban does he only have national flag in background considering his general disdain of the EU.

Most anti-EU skeptics have retreated from outright leave philosophies to erstwhile loathing and skepticism - in part because Brexit is showing just how damaging that philosophy is, in part because the EU is now increasingly popular and Salvini wouldn't dare die on that hill - why today a poll showed 75-25 support Italian EU membership. There is also of course the faction within the EU led by Le Pen and co. who want to reform the EU to suit their needs, rather then that of the "liberal elite."

But migration isn't Salvini's only issue, even though it is the big one. The north/south divide, while less prominent now in Lega still influences its goals. The coalition after all broke apart over northern infrastructure investment supported by Lega and the right who rule the north in contrast to M5S's south. There's the anti-government, anti-corruption angle, which seems awkward after the Russian collusion thing. However, almost every Italian government since the 90s has came to power promising to do away with the insider corruption of the last one, its part of Belusconi's brand. With M5S failing on most of their key proposals, Lega can run on throwing the ineffective wing of the government. There's the youth unemployment and debt issues, which birthed M5S and now have been swiped by Lega into the Anti-Migrant umbrella. There's the aging problem and how Italy has one of the lowest Birth rates in the world, which natural breeds aging, healthcare, and other types of issues that are 'constantly in need of reform' or at least funding. Like any party, it can't be blamed on one media headline, as dominant as that headline is.

[Oryxslayer]

As a (very much conditional) apologist in long standing for Southern Italy's economic interests and culture, the prospect of Po Valley anti-"terrone" racists holding undiluted sway over Italy's political and state institutions is almost as terrifying to me as the prospect of an overtly migrant-bashing alt-Catholic Prime Minister of a founding EU state.

I've openly asked this before: how powerful would Salvini be if he (or Lega) could create any appeal in the South? His numbers remain depressed because of the regional issue.

But yes, even I have such strong distaste for their record that it prevents me from actively rooting for them, and I sense from conversations with native Sicilians that this is the common sentiment on the island.

Theres certainly going to be some of a regional divide, almost certainly in policy, but I'm not sure how bad it will be vote wise. Local elections have shown Lega picking up steam in the south, Salvini is campaigning in the south, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Lega was able to rise so fast and pull so many voters from M5S because they were finally able to expand beyond the north.

[Oryxslayer]

Some scenario polling for the right wing list potentials. The top one is what has been currently run locally, the second Lega on its own, and the third being Lega and their buddys in the FdI. I shudder to think what might happen if Lega gets a majority on its own.

[Oryxslayer]

Could someone with a pretty good handle on the situation describe the factions within Five Star Movement in regards to certain political stances, the voter base and politician groupings, etc.?  The idea of a split in the Five Star Movement has been a topic of wonderment to me, and in such a hypothetical scenario, I doubt all members of the party would unify in joining or identifying with another party or alliance.

This is a good question. As Five Star voters have fled their party, both PD and Lega have fairly equally benefited. Whether Lega gets a majority or not probably depends on how successfully they focus the campaign on immigration and general populism, which attracts Five Star voters. If PD can reorient the narrative around economic issues that will attract those same voters to PD.

Polling back in 2018 found a peculiar thing: M5S was kinda a catch-all party ideologically. When polling voters on where they would place themselves on a spectrum, Lega, Forza and other right -wingers's ideological bell curves were or course right tilts, and PD's was of course left tilted. M5S though was close to flat, with a small hump for the left. What this means is that voters came to M5S from all parts of the spectrum - they were a protest party, not a ideological one.

If the same question were to be asked now, I suspect M5S would bee very left-leaning. Lega's surge pulled from those voters on the right, in part because they now have likely cracked the south which was previously a no-go zone, and PD's partial recovery comes at the expense of thee furthest part of M5S's left wing. Those left remain committed to M5S's welfare legacy, or are unreachable with offers from the others at present.

[Oryxslayer]

Its kinda a chicken and egg problem that's gotten way out of hand. Italy has a lot of structural problems that can't be solved with one government snapping their fingers, so people leave to the rest of the EU and the Americas in search of prosperity or lack the financial stability to have kids, which leads to more structural problems, which leads to more out-migration and lower births...

[Oryxslayer]

One theoretical option for PD is add the dying M5S to their broad Left-wing tent once new elections happen, because the parties voters are certainly left-wing after the right bolted for Salvini. Tossing it onto a broad left list would further the decline in favor of PD as voters migrate naturally to the head of the coalition. Downside of course is that this left wing ticket picks up all of M5S's demons, as well as its voters, and even right now wouldn't beat the combined Right's total votes. This might be what Renzi is trying now that M5S would be in a junior position.

[Oryxslayer]

Is it possible for M5S and PD to make a joint run in a new election? They would likely garner a majority together and given how many ancestral PD voters are now M5S voters, such a merger doesn't seem nearly as problematic as a fascist majority. Push immigration issues to the margins, emphasize economic populism, and anathemize Lega on the places they are weakest politically (their social conservatism, for example).  Why wouldn't that work?

I mentioned above that this is probably Renzi's end goal and why he suddenly changed his tune. PD would be happier with M5S as a junior partner in their left wing tent, rather than the major governing party with PD acting as its junior partner. Two downsides to this approach though: it still wouldn't beat the joint right wing ticket without a little bit of work, and PD would be taking on all the demons and failures of M5S's time in government, a turnoff to tons of voters that are behind the PD recovery. That's not not even considering M5S's position and how them accepting this deal would more or less be the death knell for their party at some point in the future.

[Oryxslayer]

Conte resigns.

[Oryxslayer]

There are time when it is better to be in government, and times when it is better to be in opposition - for example opposition in the UK right now is a far sexier position then government and the Brexit issue. Maybe it will hurt Salvini losing his leavers of power, maybe it will help him to have a full left government as the opposition. Who knows?

And also if PD end up fully stepping into Lega's shoes, maybe the M5S moment will finally be over. The right of the party already bolted for Lega, perhaps the Left will bolt as well for PD.

[Oryxslayer]

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Their ideology is the middle finger, and that's all that matters in chaotic Italian politics.

[Oryxslayer]

This New Party is just because his massive Ego and lust for Power cant take PD anymore, thats all.

A big issue is that people in his faction were largely snubbed for jobs in the new government and were... erm... less than pleased about this.

Renzi defects and starts his own party, taking about 20 deputies and 10 Senators with him. He will continue support Conte in the short term he says. Long term the parliamentary Math becomes a bit more tight for Conte. Polls have Renzis Party at some 5%.

What is supposed to be the ideology of this new party?

Their ideology is the middle finger, and that's all that matters in chaotic Italian politics.

[Oryxslayer]

  If the new government does make a big change in immigration or citizenship laws is that something that could trigger a referendum against it, like Salvini promised?  Also, I wonder if there is a big chunk of five star, lead by Di Maio?, that is fairly right wing when it comes to these issues?

There was a big chunk of M5S's voter base who supported harsh immigration policies, but those are the voters who now give Salvini access to a easy majority of elections occur. There is still a good chunk of the parliamentarians who are of that right wing, and their actions are those of a party trying to claw back voters - even as it may fracture the fragile alliance (and polls show Salvini is still way out ahead).

[Oryxslayer]

Is it pretty much inevitable that Salvini is going to become PM someday?  This could get very interesting and actually if he follows through on his plans, could really hurt the Eurozone and may even be a lifeline to Brexiters in UK who can point to that as why they are better off outside EU than inside due to mess.

Yes, I would say it's inevitable that Salvini gets power someday. Lega, through it's ideological transformation from a regional party to a far-right one, has co-opted the machine that Berlusconi used to previously dominate Italian politics. In doing so, Salvini has taken the position Berlusconi used to hold...and Berlusconi never really vanished from Italian politics.  He just rode the natural winds of fate that swing countries from one pole to another, never really leaving his position even when the Right was on the downswing. If Lega doesn't get power this time, Salvini will still stay on (since Lega will at minimum double it's seats) and get it next time. The man's 46, he's got a lot of years to preside over the Right like Berlusconi did in his heyday.  

But it will be hard to beat him this time. The right alliance from last time continues to have >50% in polls, and the electoral system hasn't been changed...yet.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1220130355598020615

[Oryxslayer]

"Centro"destra? That's kind of a joke at this point, no?

The term is used often when calculating local Italian parties/results. It's used not because people are center-left/right, but more that the various candidates who align with the factions, goals, and political clans of the local teams can go from center to the extremes of the extremes. It's therefore a catch-all term to imply "from the center, to the Right/Left".

[Oryxslayer]

The referendum is postponed

Corona?

[Oryxslayer]

Zingaretti has tested positive.

[Oryxslayer]

Tuscany's going to go to a runoff with these numbers, correct? Just want to confirm/remind myself of things.

[Oryxslayer]

Tuscany's going to go to a runoff with these numbers, correct? Just want to confirm/remind myself of things.

No, the runoff only applies if no candidate reaches 40%.

Which is why I asked. There was seeming agreement earlier it also applied if everyone was in the 40s without anyone crossing 50%.

[Oryxslayer]

So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Blue-Grey colorblindness is a thing...