2017 French Presidential Election

[Zuza]

Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking)

Is there any explanation for this?

[Zuza]

Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking)

Is there any explanation for this?

Constant barrages of negative news about Fillon coupled with "traditional right" voters having nowhere else to go?

Yes, it's likely that he attracts former Fillon supporters but he has started to gain momentum only in the recent days when there wasn't massive drop for Fillon. Though if he got some additional TV coverage, this could be the explanation.

[Zuza]

Hamon: 5% (=)

5 %? Looks like an error.

[Zuza]

Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism.

[Zuza]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

So Hamon supports basic income, while Mélenchon, who is to the left of Hamon, opposes it?

[Zuza]

I'd say PS is already in the same, if not worse, position as the Dutch Labor Party; now it could fall even lower, though.

[Zuza]

But PS always was much stronger than PvdA, so at least in the relative terms it's defeat is bigger. Also, I think it has much more chances to suffer a large split in the very near future, and a chance to cease to exist entirely.

[Zuza]

French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How exactly do they distinguish between realistic and unrealistic runoffs?

[Zuza]

New "Terrain" poll showing Melenchon in 3rd place:

Is this a reliable poll? All others give Melenchon only 15 %.

[Zuza]

Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%

Surprisingly good result for Mélenchon. It looks like he gets the bulk of Le Pen voters in this scenario.

[Zuza]

Surprisingly only very few 2012 Melenchon voters support Le Pen now, while a significant share of 2012 Hollande voters do this.