2017 French Presidential Election

[rob in cal]

  Well, obviously the culprit is Russian hacking.

[rob in cal]

   A Rothschild banker backed by leftists either now or in the 2nd round, should provide lots of fodder for conspiracy theorists.

[rob in cal]

  A Melenchon vs Macron runoff might be interesting. 

[rob in cal]

  If France had the Irish transferable vote method for the Presidential election I think it would make things a lot smoother and less random, in terms of who makes the runoff.

[rob in cal]

   Could the high score of Portugese and Italian immigrant descendants (assuming the poll has some validity) for Le Pen be related to the working class status of many of them?

[rob in cal]

  How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high?

[rob in cal]

  Well, I set up an account at predictit.  Bought some "no"  shares on Le Pen winning at 72. (so I'm basically saying I don't think she has a 28% chance of winning, not sure how much her true chance is, but its not 28% in my view).

[rob in cal]

  What about the Bourbon pretender to the throne? Would he be more likely to endorse Le Pen or NDA?

[rob in cal]

  Assuming Le Pen is one of the finalists, the battle for the other spot, and thus very likely becoming the next President, reminds me of the 1932 Democratic Convention in Chicago. Whoever came out of that as the nominee was considered a strong favorite to defeat Hoover and thus be the next President.

[rob in cal]

 Le Pen has reached about 36% chance to win the presidency on predictit, which really seems ridiculous.  I thought I was so smart betting against her at 28%, thinking the markets weren't going higher than that. Should have waited. Macron the favorite in the high 50's. I put a few dollars on him to win, but I've got about 150 dollars on Le Pen to not win the presidency at that 28% level (meaning I profit about 42 dollars if she loses either tomorrow or in two weeks.)