2017 French Presidential Election

[Lord Halifax]

People keep repeating that 40% of Macron voters could still change their minds. That may be true in theory and in response to a polling question. But in reality if a "soft Macron" voters actually did have second thoughts about Macron, where would they go? Who would they switch to? LePen? I don't think so...Fillon? Seems unlikely at this stage...I suppose some could drift back to Hamon...but apart from that where would they go?

They could simply abstain.

[Lord Halifax]

I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster



But they have it at

FIllon 22.09%
Le Pen 21.75%
Melenchon 21.11%
Macron 19.95%
Hamon 7.04%

That is "buzz and perceptions", not vote share.