Fall Debates

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Who do you think will win the Fall Debates? I mean Romney wasn't that good back in the primaries but was OK at it, and by most accounts, Obama kicked McCains butt in the debates back in 2008.  How do you think they'll play out in terms of their effect on the election outcome. Debates matter. That's how Reagan beat Carter back in '80.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think Obama will win the debates, because he has a lot more to lose than does Romney.  If Obama loses just one of these debates, with the current state of the economy, he'd better start packing his bags and hiring some movers for Sunday, 20 January 2013.  I think he knows it, too.  If Romney loses the election, he doesn't lose a whole lot except, possibly, the potential of a 3rd run at the White House in 2016.  If Obama loses, not only will he lose his job, but his reputation will largely be damaged on the fact that he promised hope and change, but nothing happened.  He can blame the Republican Congress all he wants, but, ultimately, the American People place all the blame and credit on the President.  The Republican Congress will have their "day in court" on Tuesday, 4 November, 2014.

I largely agree with this, except that Obama won't win the debates.  But he doesn't have to.  All he has to do is earn a "tie", as he did in 2008 when he kept saying "John is absolutely right" (eight times!).  With a tie, Obama will be proclaimed the winner by the Obamamania media.  He just has to keep it close and not make any major mistakes.  (Btw, I said in 2000 that I thought Gore won all three debates with Bush, so I'm not being partisan here.)

Obama's problem this year is that, yes, he's a lawyer -- that is, he has years of experience in thinking on his feet and sounding reasonable even if he has to say something silly -- but for the first time, he's going to be facing another Harvard Law School graduate.

I recall watching the 2011-12 GOP debates, and, trust me, I wanted Romney to fall on his face so badly -- just one time!  He didn't, to my chagrin.  So, Obama cannot count on Romney making any mistakes in October.  He's going to have to be flawless, too, to earn the "tie" that will get him proclaimed the winner.

Obama was a lawyer, BRIEFLY, and can think on his feet, if the debates with Hillary and McCain proved anything. And there's a video of Obama on YouTube from 2010 at the Republican Caucus Dinner where they asked him questions and he answered every one with ease and humor.
Romney is NOT a Harvard Law Graduate. He graduated from the business school. InRomney's profession he never had to think on his feet. He was a CEO. He only gave power point presentations. There's a reason he never gives many press conferences or interviews to anyone but Fox News Sunday.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The CW here seems seriously, embarrassingly wrong.  I've watched every debate, Republican and Democrat- excluding a few candidate forums- since '08.  I thought Obama lost or tied all but one of the '08 primary debates (he won, at least rhetorically, the one with the "likable enough" comment).  Of course he shellacked McCain three times; but McCain was, bar-none, the worst debater in the Republican field.  Romney repeatedly shellacked him.  McCain won exactly one of those debates with Romney and exactly one exchange- the infamous "timetable" debate, where he managed to make Romney seem weak and weaselly.  Other than that, he was awful.  More to the point, Romney was the candidate winning most of those debates.  This isn't just me talking.  Go back and look at the contemporaneous reporting.  Until the late Fall when Huck surged, Romney was repeatedly- I'd wager 50-60% repeatedly- proclaimed debate "winner".  In total (including post-Huckabee surge) Romney clearly won a plurality of debates.  Rudy won one or maybe two, McCain won one, and Romney and Huckabee pretty much split the remainder.  Romney also had some notably successful debates against Jane Swift in '02, the last of which resulted in something like a 5 point swing in the election (i.e, the last of which made Romney governor).  And of course, in this campaign Romney won the overwhelmingly majority of debates- including a few where, when all the chips were on the line, he brutalized Newt and Santorum; a fact that helps explain his nomination despite significant opposition among Republican primary voters.  So Romney is a fine debater.  We have lots of evidence of this.  Plenty of people have said so, while the debates were going on, though many seem to forget this after the fact.  Obama, in comparison, has only seemed like a particularly fine debater in comparison to a particularly awful debater (McCain) and was, at best, sub-par against the only fine debater he's faced (Hillary).  There's no way- none- that the like 4 to 1 Obama advantage in this poll is an accurate reflection of the disparity between the two men's debating ability.  If Obama won- flat-out- even one of the debates I'd be shocked.  He'll probably manage one tie and two narrow losses.  But there's definite potential for a significantly worse outcome. 

You're right, Romney was a fine debater. Not good, not bad, only fine. During the primaries of 2012, he didn't do anything in the debate that made him win them, he only made sure he didn't make mistakes. But Governor Rick Perry really got under his skin in the debates, as you can see from the links below.
Immigration- http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XQYg9dTE0vo
Bets- http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0CPQMDS_XO0
And that's what Obama is most likely gonna do in the debates. He's gonna try and unnerve Romney, he gonna get him off his game and get under his skin. Obama doesn't have to win the debates, he just has to keep Romney on the defensive, and not allow for a Reagan-Carter debate moment. And Obama is pretty good at taking down Republicans and defending his record from 2010 when he took on the entire Republican Issues Caucus Confernce.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w1-jasxb7NY