UK North - South Divide

[ChrisDR68]

According to various health, income, house price and life expectancy factors there is thought to be a north - south divide in the UK.

The north includes Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland plus most (but not all) of the midlands region (Google image it for a better visual reference point).

By my estimates the three main parties' seat totals in each half at the last general election was as follows:

Conservatives          ....    81 seats in the north.... 225 seats in the south
Labour                     ....  207 seats in the north....    51 seats in the south 
Liberal Democrats    ....    27 seats in the north....    30 seats in the south

Would I be correct in thinking the Tories used to be a lot stronger in the north while Labour were also stronger in the south in past elections?

[ChrisDR68]

I've read that the industrial revolution of the 19th century was the only time in British history where London wasn't top dog in terms of the nation's wealth and power. It was concentrated in the industrial manufacturing regions.

London's present cultural and economic dominance which obviously is located in the south appears to be only getting more and more exaggerated.

Would possibly creating regional assemblies based on the 8 official EU regions of England (outside of London) be helpful in watering down the centralisation that's occured over the last 34 years or so and by extension easing the north - south divide to a degree?

I haven't included Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or London in my question as they already have their own established assemblies (or parliament).

[ChrisDR68]

I keep hearing on political tv programmes that HS2 will narrow the north - south divide because it will increase connectivity between the two regions.

Then others chime in saying the north needs better rail communications between east and west (essentially from Hull to Liverpool and everywhere in between) rather than a fast rail link down to London.

Will London and the south east be the region that actually benefits from HS2 as it will encourage more people to move from the north to the south to find high earning jobs thus reinforcing the existing economic division of the country?

[ChrisDR68]

Playing around with different predictions on the Electoral Calculus website Labour can actually be outvoted by a full 3.5% in the national UK popular vote and still end up with more seats than the Tories in 2015.

On the other hand putting in the very best I think the Conservatives can hope for (a lead of 38% to 33% for Labour) only gives them 309 seats. Just 3 seats more than they won in 2010 and still 17 seats short of an overall majority.

As much as I doubt Ed Miliband's leadership it's actually pretty hard for him not to end up in Downing Street in May 2015.