Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

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I'll predict Estes wins 52-44.

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I'd be careful about reading too much into the results here. Don't be too quick to assume that Democrats are headed for massive victories over the next two years if Thompson overperforms here. It's too soon to make that conclusion.

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We might be waiting for a little while, folks.

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This could just be an anomaly, a very Democratic-friendly precinct, but if this is anywhere near the actual result in Sedgwick, it's huge.

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It could be that the Democrats cannibalized most of their votes through early voting, but if that's not the case, Estes could be in trouble. Again, though, these are hypotheticals. We'll know for sure soon enough.

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Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

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Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

Really? What was FL? I recall the EV there being ugly for Trump.

 From that observation, I'm starting to suspect Estes is toast.

I believe Clinton started out about 6% ahead of Trump in FL, so again, that would have made the EV roughly 7% more Democratic than the eventual results. I have no idea if that will be the case with this race, though. I don't want to jump to conclusions too quickly.

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Edwards was 79-16 Trump, but Thompson needs a bigger swing than that in other counties to win this.

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Pawnee is fully in, 71-29 Estes. It was 72-22 Trump in 2016.

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Sumner was an error, it's actually 52-46 Estes, but it was 72-21 Trump.

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Also, more of Sedgwick has come in, now it's 59-39 Thompson.

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Thompson's winning Harvey so far by 12. If he stays ahead there, he still has a chance, but I think Estes probably wins narrowly.

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It all comes down to the election day turnout in Sedgwick and the surrounding counties. If the election day vote doesn't give Estes much of a boost in those counties, Thompson might still pull this off. Otherwise, Estes probably pulls ahead.

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Butler gave Estes a bump, he's up 63-35 there now. But Thompson is still up 56-43 in Harvey, with more votes in.

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Estes probably has this. Thompson doesn't seem to be padding to his margin in Sedgwick at all in terms of actual votes.

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My initial prediction of Estes +8 seemed kind of generous to Thompson. Now it looks like it'll be Estes +5 or 6. Anyway, Thompson did well, and GA-06 and MT were always more promising pick-up opportunities.

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Well, KS-3 should be fun in 2018.

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What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

Well, to be fair, if there were a special election in a district like IL-09, and the Democrat only won by 5, I'm pretty sure Republicans would consider that a symbolic victory.

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All things considered, this was a pretty good result for the blue team. It's not necessarily indicative of anything by itself, though. If, however, Democrats win GA-06 and MT-AL (or win one and come very close in the other), then you could probably make the argument that this is part of a larger pattern, and that there's a massive anti-Trump backlash brewing.

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All things considered, this was a pretty good result for the blue team. It's not necessarily indicative of anything by itself, though. If, however, Democrats win GA-06 and MT-AL (or win one and come very close in the other), then you could probably make the argument that this is part of a larger pattern, and that there's a massive anti-Trump backlash brewing.

The issue, of course, is that even ni 2014  kansas was embarrassingly close for the republicans.

The bigger issue, also, is that a lot can happen till 2018, especially with all these war drums.

That's why I said that we should wait for GA-06 and MT-AL to determine if there's a larger trend here, or if it's just a matter of Brownback's unpopularity.

Btw, am I crazy for thinking that Democrats have a shot at the gubernatorial race here in 2018?

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Wow, is Jones going to avoid a run-off?

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I know it's early, but if Jones's numbers in Jefferson hold, I don't see how Kennedy can keep him under 50%, unless he absolutely destroys him in the Black Belt.

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I'm going to predict that Jones has got this without a run-off. The Republican side looks interesting, though, and I wouldn't count Brooks out yet.

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Limestone dump puts Brooks in second...

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Where are you guys following results?

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-primary