UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Beezer]

Best of 3.

[Sestak]

Oh wow.

So how is this going to go then? I imagine that Lab will make some gains front LinDems but bleed even more Leave vote to Con? Does any Brexit deal have a chance at passage now, or are we guaranteed a no deal?

[DaWN]

Cynical ploy to stem voters (and probably MPs as well) bleeding to The Independent Group. Given the intelligence of the average voter, it'll probably work.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1100091531250135040?s=21

Good god no. Just get it done.

No. Stop Brexit at all costs.

[Silent Hunter]

Oh wow.

So how is this going to go then? I imagine that Lab will make some gains front LinDems but bleed even more Leave vote to Con? Does any Brexit deal have a chance at passage now, or are we guaranteed a no deal?

We'll have to see what happens with Remain-backing Tories. Wednesday is going to be a big day.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1100091531250135040?s=21

Good god no. Just get it done.

No. Stop Brexit at all costs.

Agreed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's certainly a lot of movement now with all the extension and second referendum talk.

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1100158795894980610

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1100158795894980610

Thats a bit...shocking?

5% between Labour and a 'party' that formed 2 weeks ago?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't think the polling numbers of TIG are really as impressive as they may seem at first sight when you consider how unpopular both parties are among the general public, how much publicity the defections have received and the fact that they are very new and so haven't received much scrutiny yet.

A few things to consider:

Firstly, what suggests that they may be able to exceed the Lib Dems in the long term? Both are centrist and staunchly anti-Brexit. The Lib Dems' main problems can easily hurt TIG too, such as the fact that the Lib Dems have become seen as toxic on the due to their coalition with the Conservatives, particularly among left-wing voters who may normally find an anti-Brexit message appealing. Its worth noting that all 3 of the polls on TIG so far have been taken before the defection of the 3 Conservatives. This could hurt TIG's chances among left-wing voters in the same way that working with the Conservatives hurt the Lib Dems' chances. Not to mention the fact that TIG is likely to end up in some sort of alliance with the Lib Dems anyway. For these reasons, I don't see TIG being much more formidable than the Lib Dems have been so far.

Secondly, I can't stress enough that you shouldn't underestimate Corbyn. It has long been acknowledged that his main weakness is Brexit. It makes sense that so long as Brexit is the issue getting headlines, Corbyn will struggle. However, last election, Corbyn was able to shift the conversation away from Brexit to domestic policy, where he is much more passionate and his ideas are much more popular among the electorate. Next election, Corbyn will likely do the same and Labour will surge again.

Thirdly, although TIG presents itself as the middle ground of British politics, I doubt it'd be perceived that way. They are decidedly on one side of the biggest issue in Britain at the moment. The pool of voters they can appeal to is limited. Conservative voters, the vast majority of whom are pro-Brexit won't be moving to TIG in large numbers, and most Labour voters will be reluctant to move over. Many staunchly anti-Brexit Labour voters will view TIG as too moderate on other issues.

Not sure about that. Their model is obviously En Marche, with Chuka (or Soubry?) playing the role of Macron. Modem had been around forever but not really gained momentum because of baggage and a leader without charisma and conviction. A TIG/LD arrangement could work out quite nicely in the UK, with the LD party assuming the role of Modem, and competing only in ancestrally LD seats. TIG runs the tables in the Southeast, and remain voting urban clusters of the Midlands (no idea about Scotland) and you have a formidable force. Obviously they'd need some sort of manifesto which adrdesses all the issues (education, infrastructure, housing, healthcare, etc. in a very third way way without being associated with third way. Perhaps Milliband could play the role of Valls and endorse them? Regardless, France shows the way forward.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1100158795894980610

Thats a bit...shocking?

5% between Labour and a 'party' that formed 2 weeks ago?

There's 17% of the electorate unaccounted for...I'd be really skeptical about this.

Obviously this is a bit of a low spot for Labour, but there's no chance they only win 23% of the general vote in the next election

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1100158795894980610

Con-36%
LD-TIG Combined-24%
Lab: 23%

#Change Politics

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1100158795894980610

Thats a bit...shocking?

5% between Labour and a 'party' that formed 2 weeks ago?

There's 17% of the electorate unaccounted for...I'd be really skeptical about this.

Obviously this is a bit of a low spot for Labour, but there's no chance they only win 23% of the general vote in the next election

Most of that 17% is the SNP, PC, UKIP and the Northern Ireland Parties.  There is no 'missing voter' here.

[thumb21]

I don't think the polling numbers of TIG are really as impressive as they may seem at first sight when you consider how unpopular both parties are among the general public, how much publicity the defections have received and the fact that they are very new and so haven't received much scrutiny yet.

A few things to consider:

Firstly, what suggests that they may be able to exceed the Lib Dems in the long term? Both are centrist and staunchly anti-Brexit. The Lib Dems' main problems can easily hurt TIG too, such as the fact that the Lib Dems have become seen as toxic on the due to their coalition with the Conservatives, particularly among left-wing voters who may normally find an anti-Brexit message appealing. Its worth noting that all 3 of the polls on TIG so far have been taken before the defection of the 3 Conservatives. This could hurt TIG's chances among left-wing voters in the same way that working with the Conservatives hurt the Lib Dems' chances. Not to mention the fact that TIG is likely to end up in some sort of alliance with the Lib Dems anyway. For these reasons, I don't see TIG being much more formidable than the Lib Dems have been so far.

Secondly, I can't stress enough that you shouldn't underestimate Corbyn. It has long been acknowledged that his main weakness is Brexit. It makes sense that so long as Brexit is the issue getting headlines, Corbyn will struggle. However, last election, Corbyn was able to shift the conversation away from Brexit to domestic policy, where he is much more passionate and his ideas are much more popular among the electorate. Next election, Corbyn will likely do the same and Labour will surge again.

Thirdly, although TIG presents itself as the middle ground of British politics, I doubt it'd be perceived that way. They are decidedly on one side of the biggest issue in Britain at the moment. The pool of voters they can appeal to is limited. Conservative voters, the vast majority of whom are pro-Brexit won't be moving to TIG in large numbers, and most Labour voters will be reluctant to move over. Many staunchly anti-Brexit Labour voters will view TIG as too moderate on other issues.

Not sure about that. Their model is obviously En Marche, with Chuka (or Soubry?) playing the role of Macron. Modem had been around forever but not really gained momentum because of baggage and a leader without charisma and conviction. A TIG/LD arrangement could work out quite nicely in the UK, with the LD party assuming the role of Modem, and competing only in ancestrally LD seats. TIG runs the tables in the Southeast, and remain voting urban clusters of the Midlands (no idea about Scotland) and you have a formidable force. Obviously they'd need some sort of manifesto which adrdesses all the issues (education, infrastructure, housing, healthcare, etc. in a very third way way without being associated with third way. Perhaps Milliband could play the role of Valls and endorse them? Regardless, France shows the way forward.

Britain has already gone through a major third way era with Blair. While in France, Macron's politics could be branded as something new, in Britain, that'd be a lot harder. Blair is now viewed favorably by only 14% of Brits. Comparisons to him, which are inevitable, are likely to be toxic for TIG.

En Marche had strong and relatively charismatic leader, TIG doesn't have someone who could clearly fulfill this role. Chuka Umunna would probably do best there but he isn't on Macron's level of charisma. This helped Macron could run a strong campaign. Even if they do nominate a good leader, Corbyn has shown that his strength is campaigning and could probably outdo a competent TIG leader.

Also, Macron got quite lucky with his opponents. Scandal-ridden Fillon, a fractured Left and a deeply unpopular incumbent president which ensured that Macron would be the one to face Le Pen in the second round. While the government is unpopular, it certainly isn't at Hollande levels of unpopularity, and the British left isn't nearly as fractured as the French left. Not to mention that if the Conservatives were to have a Fillon style scandal, its unlikely that many of these voters would go to TIG because the vast majority of Conservative voters are pro-Brexit.

The main part of TIG's platform, a second referendum on Brexit, has been adopted by Labour too, so many people who may have switched to TIG to protest Labour's Brexit policy may move back. The rest of TIG's platform hasn't been fully formed yet, so I won't comment on that, but its clear that TIG's main appeal is its support for a second referendum, which has now also been co-opted by Labour.

As for TIG running the table in the South East, its unlikely. They will certainly get their best results there, but alot of the South East also voted leave. I assume you are mainly talking about London, which is a Labour stronghold. London is actually stronger for Labour now than it was during Blair's landslides. Many Remain strongholds outside of London are also university towns, full of young people, Corbyn's strongest demographic. My point being, even if TIG manages to get a significant percentage of voters, it is unlikely that that will translate into many seats, let alone sweeping places.

For your scenario to come true, everything would basically have to go perfectly for TIG, and even then, I'm skeptical for the reasons I laid out in this post and the one you were responding to.

[parochial boy]

Let's also overreact to crosstabs, but it's amusing that both those YouGov polls has TIG winning about 10% of leave voters... which seems to mostly show that, at a time where both major parties are deeply unpopular, it's pretty easy to win over support by being a blank slate. Much harder when you actually start having to deal with reality

[The Dowager Mod]

 
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1100393643477741568

[CatoMinor]

Are the TIGers actually planning on running an organized campaign with a slate candidates across the UK for the next election? I was under the impression they were just a group of independents that were united around opposing Brexit.

[Silent Hunter]

Probably, but probably not under that name - they'll form a proper party first.

[vileplume]

Probably, but probably not under that name - they'll form a proper party first.

A major undiscussed problem for TIG is if a general election comes too early for them to form a proper party or to formulate any policies. For example there is a fair chance we could get one this summer and without any organisation or a movement behind them it's highly likely they'd lose all of their seats.

[vileplume]

I don't think the polling numbers of TIG are really as impressive as they may seem at first sight when you consider how unpopular both parties are among the general public, how much publicity the defections have received and the fact that they are very new and so haven't received much scrutiny yet.

A few things to consider:

Firstly, what suggests that they may be able to exceed the Lib Dems in the long term? Both are centrist and staunchly anti-Brexit. The Lib Dems' main problems can easily hurt TIG too, such as the fact that the Lib Dems have become seen as toxic on the due to their coalition with the Conservatives, particularly among left-wing voters who may normally find an anti-Brexit message appealing. Its worth noting that all 3 of the polls on TIG so far have been taken before the defection of the 3 Conservatives. This could hurt TIG's chances among left-wing voters in the same way that working with the Conservatives hurt the Lib Dems' chances. Not to mention the fact that TIG is likely to end up in some sort of alliance with the Lib Dems anyway. For these reasons, I don't see TIG being much more formidable than the Lib Dems have been so far.

Secondly, I can't stress enough that you shouldn't underestimate Corbyn. It has long been acknowledged that his main weakness is Brexit. It makes sense that so long as Brexit is the issue getting headlines, Corbyn will struggle. However, last election, Corbyn was able to shift the conversation away from Brexit to domestic policy, where he is much more passionate and his ideas are much more popular among the electorate. Next election, Corbyn will likely do the same and Labour will surge again.

Thirdly, although TIG presents itself as the middle ground of British politics, I doubt it'd be perceived that way. They are decidedly on one side of the biggest issue in Britain at the moment. The pool of voters they can appeal to is limited. Conservative voters, the vast majority of whom are pro-Brexit won't be moving to TIG in large numbers, and most Labour voters will be reluctant to move over. Many staunchly anti-Brexit Labour voters will view TIG as too moderate on other issues.

Not sure about that. Their model is obviously En Marche, with Chuka (or Soubry?) playing the role of Macron. Modem had been around forever but not really gained momentum because of baggage and a leader without charisma and conviction. A TIG/LD arrangement could work out quite nicely in the UK, with the LD party assuming the role of Modem, and competing only in ancestrally LD seats. TIG runs the tables in the Southeast, and remain voting urban clusters of the Midlands (no idea about Scotland) and you have a formidable force. Obviously they'd need some sort of manifesto which adrdesses all the issues (education, infrastructure, housing, healthcare, etc. in a very third way way without being associated with third way. Perhaps Milliband could play the role of Valls and endorse them? Regardless, France shows the way forward.

As Thumb 21 says, it's extremely unlikely TIG would sweep the South East for the simple reason that there are too many leave voters for a 'Remain' party to sweep the region (remember the South East actually voted leave). Only 1 constituency in the South East held by the Tories is over 60% remain (Winchester which the LDs will target) and only another 8 are over 55% remain. Plus as we found out today May is not going to allow a no deal whatever she may say (she was a remainer after all) and for TIG to break through in the Tory stronghold of the South East you'd really need a no deal and the chaos that would come with it. May will indeed continue to push her deal until the bitter end but if parliament still refuses to pass it I think she'd reluctantly choose a 2nd referendum to avoid a crash out. In this scenario the Tories would be far more vulnerable to a resurgent UKIP or this new 'Brexit' party in strongly leave areas than they would be to TIG.

Other than being strongly pro-remain there isn't really any overarching ideology that unites the members of TIG. Take Anna Soubry and Luciana Berger as an example: Soubry is a dyed in the wool Cameroon and is very pro-austerity whilst Berger is a genuine social-democrat who was hounded out of Labour due to the torrent of antisemitic abuse that she received which the Labour leadership did nothing about. 

As for the British Macron the French top two system massively favours 'centrist' parties compared to the British first past the post as the 'centrist' party are usually the second choice for both right and left wing voters. Even if TIG somehow managed to get 30% of the vote it's unlikely they'd actually win that many seats as they'd get lots of good seconds whilst the Tories and Labour (owing to far better vote distribution) would still win the vast majority of seats in England and Wales as they would get their votes in areas that are demographically friendly to them whilst collapsing to negligible vote shares in areas that aren't. Umunna is probably the most similar to Macron personality-wise out of TIG but he comes across as quite inauthentic and a bit of a slimeball. Plus he may well have skeletons in his closet re. his personal life (widely speculated as the reason why he dropped out of the Labour leadership contest in 2015). 

[Sestak]

Oh wow.

So how is this going to go then? I imagine that Lab will make some gains front LinDems but bleed even more Leave vote to Con? Does any Brexit deal have a chance at passage now, or are we guaranteed a no deal?

We'll have to see what happens with Remain-backing Tories. Wednesday is going to be a big day.

Wait, what exactly will/may happen today.

[YL]

Chris Williamson, MP for Derby North and general embarrassment, has been suspended from the Labour Party.  He's been sailing a bit close to the wind on the anti-Semitism issue.

I think that means we now have 21 Independent MPs of various colours:
11 TIGgers
6 ex Labour MPs who won't be going back but who haven't joined TIG (Woodcock, Lewis, O'Mara, Austin, Onasanya*, Field)
2 suspended Labour MPs (Hopkins, Williamson)
1 ex Lib Dem MP (Lloyd)
1 elected as Independent, though originally Ulster Unionist (Hermon)

* who has now been released from jail, so can presumably vote again

[YL]

Oh wow.

So how is this going to go then? I imagine that Lab will make some gains front LinDems but bleed even more Leave vote to Con? Does any Brexit deal have a chance at passage now, or are we guaranteed a no deal?

We'll have to see what happens with Remain-backing Tories. Wednesday is going to be a big day.

Wait, what exactly will/may happen today.

Not a lot looks like the answer.  But there are going to be some important votes in a couple of weeks' time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Agriculture minister George Eustice calls it quits in response to May's plans to delay Brexit:

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-farming-and-fisheries-minister-quits-over-brexit-delay/

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The TIGers now have policy/administrative rolls. A party is becoming more coherent.