Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. Maybe the Tories are in the lead again? I'd like to see some more polls before making another projection.

[Hatman 🍁]

Northern Ontario should have a devolved assembly like Scotland

[Hatman 🍁]

It definitely should be its own province. It gets its own Brier team for pete's sake!

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like a very weak Tory minority, but I'll wait for one more poll before doing another projection.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll crosstabs actually show the NDP at just 26%: http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/119193ENG.pdf

And oddly enough, the NDP is at 32% in Eastern Ontario which doesn't make any sense, unless they include part of northern Ontario in that.

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a poll from Peterborough

Lib: 45.5
PC: 28.5
NDP: 22
Grn: 4

Compare to my projection

Lib: 44
PC: 30
NDP: 24
Grn: 2

This poll must be very accurate The 308 guy is bragging at how close he was, but mine is even better

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently the Toronto Star is releasing a poll of 39,000 (yes 39,000) that will show the Liberals and PCs dead even at 35% with the NDP at 23% and the Greens and others at 7%.

This is like 1985 all over again! when that exact vote split led to 51 PCs 49 Libs and 25 NDP.

Sample is large enough for individual riding projections too, and they have the NDP with just 13!

I want to know more about this poll. Here are the "close races"

Ancaster-Dundas

Beaches-East York

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton-Springdale

Halton

Kitchener Centre

Kitchener-Conestoga

Kitchener-Waterloo

London North Centre

London West

Mississauga East

Mississauga Erindale

Mississauga South

Niagara Falls

Oak Ridges-Markham

Ottawa South

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

St. Catharines

Thornhill

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Timmins-James Bay

Trinity-Spadina

Welland

Windsor-Tecumseh

Windsor West

York Centre


Where's Ottawa Centre? Surely the NDP isn't ahead by 5%, and neither are the Liberals?

[Hatman 🍁]

A poll with a sample that big is deeply suspicious; which outfit did it?

Forum Research.

I'm concerned. How can a 6 point gain only result in 3 more seats. (The article says the NDP is down in Parkdale-High Park, yeah right!).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the overlay of the forum research survey into GTA ridings:

http://www.thestar.com/staticcontent/1058980

I must say, while some make sense, Im a little flabbergasted about York South Weston for example. But, that's good news for Ottawa Centre, as if some of the obvious NDP ridings in Toronto aren't NDP in this poll, then OC becomes more likely as one of those few pick ups

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are some more riding results: http://www.bayshorebroadcasting.ca/news_item.php?NewsID=39064

Those races seem to make sense.

If anyone else can find anything, it would be much appreciated.

[Hatman 🍁]

A new Ontario projection! (trying to make sense of the Forum Research poll)

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction_26.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Riding polling fails because it is based on telephone exchanges, and ridings cross those. Ridings even cross postal codes, with one code in particular being in Guildwood and Scar Centre. I even argued with a political person on the phone telling them that I KNOW I am in Guildwood, because the rail line is the border, and they trying to tell me the opposite because of my postal code. That is why Parkdale, and the Kitcheners, etc, are showing up wrong. The poll is correct, but placing the voters in the proper riding is not.

Good point Teddy. Maybe a lot of the Parkdale people were counted in Davenport (same with York South-Weston)

[Hatman 🍁]

With all the problems with these and other polls (numbers too small to get a real idea, or no reagional breakdowns, etc) they can be used to the advantage of some campaigns.
So they say the NDP is trailing in YSW, PHP (really?) at any rate, that can bolster volunteers; the last thing you want it to be over confident and think you have it in the bag. In Toronto Danforth, i've gotten 3 calls already to volunteer (which i have, and since i already voted might do eday too) so they are not taking a safe riding for granted. I suppose these poor numbers (seats counts really) can be used to bolster our campaigns, get people motivated to work for every riding.
This has also lead to speculation, should we even have this much polling? or polling during an election at all? Look at Manitoba? has there even been a poll since June? would that be better for the parties to just run a campaign and let the chips fall on election day? (ok sorry if you all want to kill me cause i love the polling everyone is doing!)

Without polling, the NDP does not form opposition I think.

Constituency polling is a mugs game; as we saw just a few months ago. But, presumably, these are breakdowns from a massive poll, rather than specific riding polls? If so, then that would make them near useless.

Breakdowns from the massive poll. But as we saw from the GTA map, most of the ridings make sense. It's a few odds one that make you scratch the head. But then again, even actual election results will make you scratch your head from time to time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Huh. I wasn't aware EKOS was doing a poll.

Anyways, their regionals are more obviously sorted by area codes. "Northeastern and Central Ontario" being a big giveaway for the 705. Oddly enough, they have the NDP winning that region which means that Northeastern Ontario is going enmasse to the NDP while getting respectable numbers in the Tory hinterland that is the southern 705. They also have the 807 as a separate category (Northwestern Ontario), which has a really small sample size, as it's a small area code. The Tories are winning there, and I am starting to think the Tories probably have the lead in Kenora-Rainy River.

[Hatman 🍁]

I missed the debate, as I had to attend my girlfriend's brother's birthday dinner. It was at one of Ottawa's fanciest restaurants where a lot of MPs apparently gather. Senator Pamela Wallin was in the next table over.

[Hatman 🍁]

In today's Globe & Mail, they were saying Horwath didn't do well in the Northern Ontario debate, so it looks good that she was able to turn things around.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've decided to vote for the Ontario NDP. The fact that there will likely be a minority, and that the NDP can win my riding, are key in deciding. I don't trust the Liberals to do a damned thing to make my life any different. They don't care about people like me. The Tories meanwhile would make life a lot harder for me because they hate people like me - IE people who think $60,000 is rich. People who are "poor". The NDP meanwhile will actually improve public transit, and in any coalition, I'm hoping they will make things like this conditional for support.

Thus, I've decided to vote NDP, provincially.

Wow... welcome back

[Hatman 🍁]

Found some Forum research numbers for the Niagara area: http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3312656

Apparently, the NDP is holding on to Welland, and the Liberals are down in NF and St. Catharines.

Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column: http://www.cjbk.com/LocalNews/Story.aspx?ID=1545478

[Hatman 🍁]

I personally thought Andrea did an amazing job; she came across the most "real" as well as the most folksy, but in a good way. what i mean by that is that she was the most genuine, personal and funny... my favourite moment was when she blurted out when McGuinty was talking about the Toyota plant "My brother works there!" i just about died laughing. She was also the one to present the clearest policy which is definetely what the party needs to do to win over some.
McGunity gave me motion sickness, but more so i found him mildly arrogant and a tad belittling. But he held his own.
Hudak continues to creep me out.

I haven't seen the level of undecides? in the polls are we seeing a high number or is it pretty low? I think Andreas performance might help in winning over some progressive undecideds.

Lots of undecideds here.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've just come back from the advance polls where I voted NDP.

I also explained to my roomate how I never have, and probably never will, support the federal NDP. I've voted provincially for the PC Party once, and the NDP two times. Federally, I've voted Liberal, Green, and Conservative. So oddly, I while I support the Liberals federally, I've never supported them on a provincial level.

lol. Now that you can't change your vote, I don't have to worry about angering you to the point of changing it

Well, if you trust canvassing, 90% are undecided, but people lie.

It's not quite that high, but yeah. Then again, it makes sense here, because some people can't tell the difference between the Libs and NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, London-Fanshawe is in the NDP column

I was thinking about that the other day - since it was so close last election, and since it wasn't in the list of seats within 5%, I thought it highly likely that the NDP had a lead of more than 5% there (since I considered it unlikely that the Liberals had improved their position there, or that the Tories had managed to gain a lead of more than 5%).

I did not. I figured much of the NDP vote there is personal for Irene. I guess I was wrong. Only problem is, if L-F went NDP in that poll, it means Ottawa Centre is less likely. (still no word as to what it said).

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.

[Hatman 🍁]

Care to share?

NDP pick ups are Algoma-Manitoulin, Timiskaming-Cochrane, London-Fanshawe and Hamilton Mountain while we're losing Kenora-Rainy River. All of those make sense.

Do you have anything in particular you want to know?

Well, I am upset.

Krago sent me the riding by riding numbers of the Forum Research poll, and the Liberal lead here is apparently huge.

I am hoping they f'ed up with the telephone exchanges, but still.

The NDP will have 30% of the vote on e-day.

In Ottawa Centre, or province wide?

[Hatman 🍁]

Timmins-James Bay: NDP 39, Cons 37, Libs 13
Thunder Bay Superior North: Libs 34, NDP 33, Cons 28
Thunder Bay-Atikokan: Libs 33, NDP 30, Cons 27
Sudbury: Libs 41, NDP 35, Cons 18
Sault Ste. Marie: Libs 46, NDP 28, Cons 20
Windsor West: Libs 34, NDP 34, Cons 26 (0.4% difference)
Ottawa-Orleans: Cons 46, Libs 39, NDP 12
Ottawa West-Nepean: Cons 43, Libs 34, NDP 16

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html