A Big Warning Sign for Mitt Romney

[anvi]

Iowa will be an important swing state in the '12 general.  I don't imagine Iowa GOP voters will take kindly to a candidate who skips their caucuses.

[anvi]

Well, assuming Indiana, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio come back to the GOP (a big assumption), the key states are Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.  Assuming the GOP candidate wins the first four states above, but doesn't win Virginia, they have to win Colorado and then take two out of the  three among Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.  Colorado and Nevada, even with Romney as the nominee, will be tough fights, and Romney's popularity in New Hampshire is iffy.  I don't think skipping Iowa altogether would be wise for Romney.  He doesn't have to win the primary there, but I think he should go there to at lease personally ingratiate himself to voters so that, if he is the nominee when the general comes around, the Iowa GOPers won't remember him as "the guy who blew us off."  And since Iowa has turned right since '08 anyway, it's best to actively solidify support there.

Unless circumstances turn it into a landslide, nothing can be taken for granted in presidential elections, and the Republicans have too much electoral ground to make up for their primary candidates to pass over early states that will be crucial in the general.

[anvi]

I wish people would respond to what I wrote, instead of what they wished I had written. . I said that Romney has the best chance of the top four (Mitt, Huck, Sarah and Newt) of winning back CO and NV. This is because of his Western strength and connections, and his higher suburban appeal then the other three. I didn't say Romney would definately win them.

You may have intended to say this, but that's not what you actually said in your initial post.  You said, with regard to my comment about Iowa, that "Romney needs it the least" based on his ability to win Colorado and Nevada (you did not mention the other candidates in your initial post).  I was trying to address what I understood to be your point by indicating that, if Romney doesn't win Iowa, he will have to win a few other states to make up for it in addition to Colorado.  But, whatever.  If Romney can pull off the big states I mentioned and win Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire, then sure he doesn't need Iowa.  But it's a gamble.  It's best if he doesn't skip it entirely in the primaries, and that was my only point.