2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Continential]

When will Poilievre's corronation the results be officially announced?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

When will Poilievre's corronation the results be officially announced?

February 5, 2022 "Sometime after 6 p.m. ET" according to party Chair Iain Brodie, which is obviously not a very clear answer. But with the high likelihood of a first-ballot victory, it probably won't be a drawn-out affair like last time.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My final prediction (source: my hunch):

Poilievre: 58%
Charest: 21%
Lewis: 15%
Aitchison: 3%
Baber: 3%

[Benjamin Frank]

My final prediction (source: my hunch):

Poilievre: 58%
Charest: 21%
Lewis: 15%
Aitchison: 3%
Baber: 3%

Is that the point count or the raw vote?

I wouldn't be surprised if the raw vote was something like that, but with the point count closer.

Based on the point count, I'd go:

Polievre: 54%
Charest 30%
Lewis 12%
Aitchison 2%
Baber2%

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My final prediction (source: my hunch):

Poilievre: 58%
Charest: 21%
Lewis: 15%
Aitchison: 3%
Baber: 3%

Is that the point count or the raw vote?

I wouldn't be surprised if the raw vote was something like that, but with the point count closer.

Based on the point count, I'd go:

Polievre: 54%
Charest 30%
Lewis 12%
Aitchison 2%
Baber2%

Point count, in raw votes I think P crosses 60%. The wildcard factor is that many Poilievre supporters may not have sent in their ballots seeing this election as a done deal. But assuming decent turnout for all campaigns, I don't think Charest has enough support to reach 30%, even with the point system slightly favouring him. Even in Quebec, Poilievre had more membership sales, and Charest's membership sales in Ontario are quite low too.

[adma]

Yeah, I can see Charest bunched up w/Lewis the same way that Charlie Angus was bunched up w/Niki Ashton in the Jagmeet NDP coronation...

[OSR stands with Israel]

My final Prediction is:

Poilievre: 62%
Charest: 23%
Lewis: 12%
Atchinson: 2%
Baber: 1%

[mileslunn]

When will announcement come?

[Mike88]

When will announcement come?

At CBC they are saying around 7:30 pm.

[mileslunn]

Said results in 10-15 minutes and most likely Poilievre wins on first ballot, if not huge surprise.

[Mike88]

Said results in 10-15 minutes and most likely Poilievre wins on first ballot, if not huge surprise.

The CBC pundit said that her sources are telling her that Poilievre will have a "pretty convincing" 1st ballot win. We'll see.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Poilievre Wins

[trebor204]

Poilievre 68.15% 22,993.42 points
Charest 16.07%, 5,421.62
Lewis 9.69% 3,269.54
Baber 5.03%, 1696.76
Aitchison 1.06% 356.66

[Benjamin Frank]

My final prediction (source: my hunch):

Poilievre: 58%
Charest: 21%
Lewis: 15%
Aitchison: 3%
Baber: 3%

Wow, you were way off!

[trebor204]

Riding By Riding Results



https://cpc-leadership-2022.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/10200514/Results-by-Riding.pdf

[Oryxslayer]

Riding By Riding Results



https://cpc-leadership-2022.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/10200514/Results-by-Riding.pdf

PP wins everything except: Brossard–Saint-Lambert, Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Louis-Hébert, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, Sherbrooke, Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Soeurs, Ottawa Centre, and University–Rosedale. Charest won those.

[super6646]

Well I won’t be voting conservative in 2025 that’s for sure.

[Benjamin Frank]

M.P ridings

Parry Sound–Muskoka
Scott AITCHISON 398 16.7%
Roman BABER 217 9.1
Jean CHAREST 168 7.1
Leslyn LEWIS 195 8.2
Pierre POILIEVRE 1,403 58.9  
1922                  

OUCH

Haldimand–Norfolk
Scott AITCHISON 19 0.8
Roman BABER 140 6.2
Jean CHAREST 110 4.9
Leslyn LEWIS 675 30.1
Pierre POILIEVRE 1,298 57.9  
2242

Ouch

[Benjamin Frank]

Non M.P ridings
York Centre
Scott AITCHISON 19 2.3%
Roman BABER 259 31.2
Jean CHAREST 82 9.9
Leslyn LEWIS 55 6.6  
Pierre POILIEVRE415 50.0
Votes: 830

OUCH

Sherbrooke
Scott AITCHISON 0 0.0%
Roman BABER 4 0.67
Jean CHAREST 304 51.1
Leslyn LEWIS 27 4.5
Pierre POILIEVRE260 43.7
595

Terrible turnout

The PDF goes from the riding of Cambridge on page 21 to the riding of Chatham-Kent-Leamington on page 22, so Polievre's riding of Carleton is missing!?!

Edit to add: for some reason it's on page 33 after the riding of Richmond Hill.

Carleton
Scott AITCHISON 60 1.6%
Roman BABER 108 2.8
Jean CHAREST 557 14.5
Leslyn LEWIS 222 5.8
Pierre POILIEVRE 2,897 75.4
3,844

Total votes: 417,635

That averages 1,236 votes per riding.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The PDF goes from the riding of Cambridge on page 21 to the riding of Chatham-Kent-Leamington on page 22, so Polievre's riding of Carleton is missing!?!

Edit to add: for some reason it's on page 33 after the riding of Richmond Hill.

By custom, Canadian ridings are sorted by their "number" and not A-Z. In most cases, the numbers match the alphabetical order, but if a riding name is changed after its number is set, it messes up the order a bit. Carleton was originally intended to be named "Rideau-Carleton", which alphabetically puts it after Richmond Hill. Later the Rideau was dropped, but the number was unchanged.

That may be the most obscure thing I know about Canadian politics. Man, I need to touch some grass 

[Benjamin Frank]

Highest votes
1.Foothills: 5,062
2.Banff-Airdrie 4,523 (a bit odd since some of this riding the NDP has serious hopes of winning provincially)

Lowest votes
1.Nunavut: 38
2.Labrador: 133

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

My final prediction (source: my hunch):

Poilievre: 58%
Charest: 21%
Lewis: 15%
Aitchison: 3%
Baber: 3%

Wow, you were way off!

Hahaha, and I thought I was being bullish on Pierre!

[Benjamin Frank]

The PDF goes from the riding of Cambridge on page 21 to the riding of Chatham-Kent-Leamington on page 22, so Polievre's riding of Carleton is missing!?!

Edit to add: for some reason it's on page 33 after the riding of Richmond Hill.

By custom, Canadian ridings are sorted by their "number" and not A-Z. In most cases, the numbers match the alphabetical order, but if a riding name is changed after its number is set, it messes up the order a bit. Carleton was originally intended to be named "Rideau-Carleton", which alphabetically puts it after Richmond Hill. Later the Rideau was dropped, but the number was unchanged.

That may be the most obscure thing I know about Canadian politics. Man, I need to touch some grass 

Thanks! Rideau more like Ridumb!

My favorite joke that expresses my disdain for fantasy book series: Have you ever read Middle Earth is Dumb...ledore by J.K Tolkien?

I know I'm not funny.

[Benjamin Frank]

Let's see what else is here.  In each of the Brampton ridings turnout was under 1,000 votes, however there seems to be generally relatively low turnout in most ridings with large racialized populations.

Of course, in the political contest that most Canadians actually care about, Alberta NDP MLA Rod Loyola won renomination in Edmonton-Ellerslie.

https://twitter.com/MLAIrfanSabir/status/1568767292678504450
Loyola defeated two challengers including Judi Malone, the President of the Alberta Psychologists Association.

Loyola is something of a genuine socialist/communist, but as far as I can tell he's been a loyal and decent member of the Alberta NDP caucus.

[Hatman 🍁]