2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

Kind of silly to have Dodge and Jefferson with Madison as they're culturally a lot more connected to WOW, but it's what necessary to maintain some level of partisan fairness.

Agreed that they are more similar to WOW counties, they aren't totally disconnected from Dane County and the Madison area. I would put the population split at about 60-40 towards Milwaukee/WOW.

[Gass3268]

So much for fair maps in Wisconsin.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1465793832042348545?s=20

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1465795229697597452?s=20

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1465798479939358726?s=20

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1465799023474970636?s=20

[Gass3268]

This is what happens when Democrats/Liberals didn't put forward a Supreme Court candidate in 2017 (during the absolute peak of anti-Trump) and then lose a squeaker by around ~6,000 in 2019. Either goes the other way Wisconsin would be getting fair maps, instead democracy is essentailly dead in the most politically even state in the country.

[Gass3268]

So with regards to the legislature, the Rs get a fairly brutal gerrymander of the FRV, get to keep chopping at the bits in Eastern Dane, and keep Kenosha/Racine together instead of giving each a seat. Eau Claire seems gerrymandered and it definetely is awful on COI grounds but it actually doesn't help the GOP much. Population changes will make an exurban Dane/Driftless seat more competitve.

However the test for "least change" will be most seen if the GOP court decides to fix the dummymander in Milwaukee for the GOP or keeps it least change. 8 and 5 both voted for Biden. However 4 and 6 have a lot of population loss and they could theoretically eat at the most dem parts of 5 and 8 and let them both become more GOP.

To grow 4 and 6, I would think they would go where the could at least try gain the most African American voters possible, which would probably mean grabbing the rest of Glendale and taking Brown Deer, maybe also a piece of 7 or a bit of northwest 3. Only piece of 5 I could see 4/6 taking is that sliver north of Wauwatosa that's in Milwaukee. The rest of the district is pretty white.

[Gass3268]

Welp this pretty much means 6-2 is guaranteed.

WI is a weird case where especially with 8 seats, political geography heavily favors Rs, and a fair map from a partisanship standpoint would be terrible from a COI standpoint.

I think the right thing to do in this case would be keep Milwaukee whole to ensure minorities get a voice, but try to get 2 D-leaning districts out of Madison and SW WI.

Honestly, I wouldn't be to upset for this ruling except for the fact the original maps were GOP gerrymanders; I really just wish the court would re-start from scratch even if they don't look at partisanship data

Wait for the spring 2023 WI Supreme Court election. If Dems win and grab the majority, these maps will be overturned.

Would they overturn the Congressional map? The current one and future one if the court just does least change is a bit better for Dems than a map drawn without consideration to partisanship, given that WI-03 is drawn as a Dem pack.

The state legislature maps are horrendous, they should be struck down without question.

I think they would and do a 4/4 map. Dems should ask the PA supreme court to counter this with a nice 11-6 D map.

That would require splitting Dane County and Milwaukee City. Do you think the court would be up for that?

Then they better not split Waukesha County.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/byjackkelly/status/1471183568751808512?s=20

Governor Evers' least change maps:

Assembly
Senate
Congress

[Gass3268]

A few other proposed Congressional Maps:

https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmaphunter.pdf

https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/procongressmapcitizenmath.pdf

And it looks like the State Legislature offered their maps that Evers vetoed.

[Gass3268]

Least change was a made up rule by the State Supreme Court that counters actual rules put forward by state law.

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052226472820737?s=20

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052229278748672?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1471199489780158464?s=20

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1471199493227905024?s=20

[Gass3268]

Least change was a made up rule by the State Supreme Court that counters actual rules put forward by the state constitution.

https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052226472820737?s=20
https://twitter.com/ProfNickStephan/status/1466052229278748672?s=20

What exactly are those requirements again? Subdivision preservation was adhered to in the existing map actually.

I'm not sure.

[Gass3268]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1471944047614996485?s=20

[Gass3268]

Interesting

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1471944047614996485?s=20

Picture of her map?

Page 20-27 and she did not provide a Congressional map.

https://www.wicourts.gov/courts/supreme/origact/docs/expertrepamos.pdf

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1479174380605353990

Wisconsin GOP screwed up big time.

Pure least change can be done with only 1.8% movement congressionally

Like every Wisconsin Supreme Court decision, it really comes down to what Brian Hagedorn thinks. His opinion that concurred that the maps should involve the principal of least change, also stated that other factors could and should be considered as well.

[Gass3268]

Congressionally the GOP map does not do least change in wi03. As torie noted it undoes the excessive county split arm that was used to shore up with. On the other hand Evers map stops the Waukesha split and then further goes into Milwaukee County while also taking Beloit.

It's really going to come down to how they weigh the different factors. Hagedorn could think that keeping Waukesha County unified (keeping counties/municipalities whole where possible is a standard set by law) is more important. There is also a compactness guideline that could kill the WI-03 arm to Portage County. Hoping we get the new maps soon. It's been almost a month since the court requested the maps.

[Gass3268]

All this decision was is the court allowed Evers and BLOC to make changes to the maps they proposed, but did not do the same for the Republican Congressmen. No maps were chosen yet.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/sjohnsonwpr/status/1480998650864181249?s=21

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin's State Supreme Court could use a tech upgrade.

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1482043553920528390?s=20

[Gass3268]

Crazy long series of oral arguments today regarding redistributing at the Wisconsin Supreme Court. I’ll post any analysis on the hearing once I find it.

https://twitter.com/byjackkelly/status/1483923260886720520?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://captimes.com/news/government/wisconsin-supreme-court-hears-redistricting-oral-arguments/article_9b5c8300-e76b-53d1-84f3-5d4cb7a4c0c5.html

Another good article.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1483840759451246592?s=20

[Gass3268]

Any news for when the map is picked ?

They really didn't give a time frame. The fact they are waiting so long makes me wonder if they are drawing their own maps (combining different parts from those proposed that they liked), which they would be allowed to do.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1491523786096656387?s=20&t=H7yLQl-i...

Maybe this account knows something might be coming later today?

[Gass3268]

I guess we are looking at sometime this month? Maybe today?

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1498679934256140289?s=20&t=brWICBzSs...

[Gass3268]

THEY SIDED WITH EVERS!!!

https://twitter.com/AlexanderShur/status/1499509496359571464?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WI_Forward/status/1482557812848963585?s=20&t=yPx8zaS0HGK...

So this map should deny R legislative supermajorities pretty consistently, right?

In the Assembly yes, Senate will be close early in the decade.