Who has a better chance of winning?

[Nym90]

I vote for the guy who has been in the lead in some polls.

[WalterMitty]

obviously i support both of these candidates.

id say santorum has the better chance.

[TomC]

Ford

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Prediction: All of the Republicans will say Santorum. All of the Democrats will say Ford.

[Sam Spade]

Prediction: All of the Republicans will say Santorum. All of the Democrats will say Ford.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[adam]

For by a hair, neither candidate really has a chance...regardless of what polls say.

[??????????]

Santorum will come back and win by 1 or 2% depending on events.

[NewFederalist]

While I actually can vote for either Casey or Santorum, I have a feeling that Santorum will pull this off. His ads are better than Casey' and so far Casey just hasn't done anything to generate support that I can see. Since political alternatives have been banned this year in the People's Republic of Pennsylvania I can either (a) stay home (b) vote Casey or (c) vote Santorum. Hmmm door number ....

[© tweed]

Santorum of course

[Conan]

While I actually can vote for either Casey or Santorum, I have a feeling that Santorum will pull this off. His ads are better than Casey' and so far Casey just hasn't done anything to generate support that I can see. Since political alternatives have been banned this year in the People's Republic of Pennsylvania I can either (a) stay home (b) vote Casey or (c) vote Santorum. Hmmm door number ....

Leading in every poll and having all of the major political scientists and pundits might be evidence that he has done something to generate support.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Santorum of course

Smart Democrat

Santorum= history of coming back really bad opponent
Ford= no history of being a senator, mediocre opponent

PA=leaning Dem
TN=Stronger Rep

If only one wins, it will be Santorum

[Boris]

obviously i support both of these candidates.

id say santorum has the better chance.

Why do you support Ford? He's a conservative Democrat; you're a liberal Republican. You guys are completely opposite on just about every issue.

Oh, and Santorum will win.

[Nym90]

Prediction: All of the Republicans will say Santorum. All of the Democrats will say Ford.

True, but I was hoping someone like Sam Spade would respond with his opinion.

Polling clearly suggests Ford has the better chance, given that he's actually been ahead in some polls. I don't know if anyone has ever trailed for literally the entire campaign in every single poll for many many months and come back to win in the final month or two, which is what Santorum would have to do. I suppose it's probably happened somewhere, but it's extremely rare.

In a neutral political environment, Santorum would clearly have the better chance, since his state isn't as unfavorable towards his party as Ford's is for him, plus the advantage of being an incumbent. However, in this anti-GOP national environment I think both of those are pretty well wiped out.

Both have clearly run excellent campaigns and thus both do have a chance to defy the odds which were clearly stacked against them in facing what should on paper be strong moderate candidates as their opponents, so that's another reason why I made this poll. Both, however, seem to benefiting by the fact that their opponents, while moderate, are not really strong candidates personality wise, and their opponents are also both moderate enough that they fail to excite or motivate the party base.

[Sam Spade]

Here's a non-answer answer:  It is true that both campaign have been near flawless in the past two months.  I would say, frankly, that these two have been the best campaigns in the Senate for the last two months and it shows.

The real questions are:  Who will be the better campaign over the next six weeks?  What will the national spectrum be then or the in-state spectrum for that matter?  How good is the other campaign in responding and fighting back?

I could add on demographics issues and I would say on the whole, they would naturally tend to disfavor Ford more than Santorum, but this is not new analysis from me.

Santorum's being an incumbent makes it much harder for him to gain ground than Ford.  I would agree with this too.

Of course, right now it is hard for me to say where the Santorum race is without polling for nearly 3 weeks.  But I'd guess that he's probably gaining.  The Ford race is easier to quantify in that sphere for the present moment.

The questions are the important part.  And without really solid answers to them, all I can give is guesswork and polling

[Joel the Attention Whore]

Sam Spade, did you major in political science? 

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade, did you major in political science? 

No, this is only a hobby of mine.

[Torie]

Prediction: All of the Republicans will say Santorum. All of the Democrats will say Ford.

Your prediction to my personal knowledge is errant. Cheers.

[Eraserhead]

Well lets see Santorum is an incumbent Senator who has never had a lead in one poll all year.

Ford is a challenger who has at least led in some polls.

Ford has a far better shot.

[Smash255]

Ford has a better chance.

Both have closed the gaps quite a bit, but Ford has actually led in a poll, and even the recent ones he has trailed in have showed it very close.  While TN is a stronger GOP state than PA is a Dem state, the Bush factor.  Also the TN race appears a bit closer at this race.  I don't think either of them will wind up winning, but Ford has the better chance.

[??????????]

Ford has a better chance.

Both have closed the gaps quite a bit, but Ford has actually led in a poll, and even the recent ones he has trailed in have showed it very close.  While TN is a stronger GOP state than PA is a Dem state, the Bush factor.  Also the TN race appears a bit closer at this race.  I don't think either of them will wind up winning, but Ford has the better chance.

It all depends on events from this point forward, to be honest. With steadily dropping fuel prices and with Iraq quieting down a bit, I think, to be honest, fortunes may be changing for the Democrats this season. But we'll have to wait and see I suppose.

[Smash255]

Ford has a better chance.

Both have closed the gaps quite a bit, but Ford has actually led in a poll, and even the recent ones he has trailed in have showed it very close.  While TN is a stronger GOP state than PA is a Dem state, the Bush factor.  Also the TN race appears a bit closer at this race.  I don't think either of them will wind up winning, but Ford has the better chance.

It all depends on events from this point forward, to be honest. With steadily dropping fuel prices and with Iraq quieting down a bit, I think, to be honest, fortunes may be changing for the Democrats this season. But we'll have to wait and see I suppose.

Iraq isn't exactly quieting down, today was a real bad day over there, and it as come out that while down slightly the amount of killings were not down nearly as much as what was being reported.  The military decided to re-classify suicide bombs, car bombs and mortar attacks differnetly and did not include them in the killing stats for August (I have a post on the U.S General Discussion on this).  Gas prices have fallen over the past month granted, but they still are quite high and the fall has taken place right during For'ds recent sure.

granted it does depend on how things go from now till election day, however the chances of Bush and the national GOP being viewed anything above not so good in TN, and horrible in NJ are very slim.  I think both Corker and Menendez win their respective races, however both have moved into the competitive category.  I just think ford has a better chance to win because he ha less things going against him than Kean Jr does.  Also Ford is a FAR better speaker, and A FAR better debator than Kean JR is. 

[GOP = Terrorists]

Why do you support Ford? He's a conservative Democrat; you're a liberal Republican. You guys are completely opposite on just about every issue.

Well they are both pro-war.

[Rob]

I don't know if anyone has ever trailed for literally the entire campaign in every single poll for many many months and come back to win in the final month or two, which is what Santorum would have to do.

Charlie Cook said that Santorum's been "behind since Moby Dick was a guppy."

My gut tells me that Santorum has a better chance, but I think a lot of people are going to be very surprised about Tennessee come Election Day. Ford has run an unbelievably good campaign, probably the best of the year.