Panda Express
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,578
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« on: October 13, 2014, 07:28:03 PM » |
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Udall down by 2 eh? With everyone getting their ballots in tomorrow, most people will have voted within the week. Working in Udall"s favor is
1. Democrats have had a history of generally outperforming the polls by several points. Remember, Bennet was down by several points in 2010 but ended up winning by a couple points. Same thing happened with Romney/Obama in 2012 too with Obama doing a lot better than the polls suggested.
2. Mail-in ballots means everyone gets a ballot. This should benefit the Democrats. Why wouldn't it? It's guaranteed to increase turnout and expand the electorate
3. Udall has the better ground game (apparently)
Working in Gardner's favor is
1. He has the momentum (with ballots dropping tomorrow, not good for Udall)
2. Gardner's sharp turn to the left on abortion and immigration has really muddied the waters on Udall's strongest attacks.
3. Gardner probably "won" the debates (people will remember Mark Uterus if nothing else)
4. Udall overreached with abortion and it's clearly backfiring at the end here. His approval has really plummeted in the last 2 weeks,
Gonna be 2 points either way. I still say Iowa has a better chance of falling to the Rethuglicans before Colorado though.
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