Rather than obsessing over the Buttigieg number, this number is probably more telling:
Warren 46
Trump 41
Sanders 49
Trump 41
Clinton (?) 43
Trump 41
Buttigieg 41
Trump 41
I can agree with you here. Trump is stuck at 41% against most of these candidates, and does even worse against Biden. Of course, I suspect that his final percentage will be somewhere around 45%-close to 2016. However, the consolidation of much of the third-party vote behind the Democratic nominee, along with the shifts that will take place in states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Texas, makes it very likely that he loses by around 5-9%, particularly to Biden. He will definitely lose the Electoral College if the Democratic nominee wins the PV by at least 3%.
It would be a consolation prize if Trump comes close to or gets around a majority of the PV and yet still doesn't outperform Obama 2012 in the EV. It would at least show that Democrats can adapt and just didn't have enough votes because they simply couldn't argue against the fundamentals.
