If anyone is interested, I wrote a Perl script to take a file containing states and populations, and figure out how many EVs each state gets, using the current method of Congressional apportionment. Some interesting finds:
Utah was 856 residents away from stealing an EV from North Carolina in 2000.
According to the 2010 population projection made in 2001 by the US Census Bureau, the following EV changes will take place in 2010:
CA +2
TX +2
WA +1
OR +1
UT +1
MT +1
NY -2
IL -1
PA -1
OH -1
MI -1
MA -1
IA -1
I was surprised to see CA gaining an extra two EVs, while AZ, CO, GA, VA, and TN didn't gain any. Florida came very close to getting another EV at Texas' expense.
Last five EVs awarded:
5. Missouri (11) (falling)
4. California (57) (rising)
3. Minnesota (10) (falling)
2. North Carolina (15) (static)
1. Texas (36) (rising)
First five EVs almost awarded:
1. Florida (28) (rising)
2. Michigan (17) (falling)
3. California (58) (rising)
4. Massachusetts (12) (falling)
5. Illinois (21) (falling)
So, Minnesota and Missouri are also in danger of losing EVs, but are not projected to lose them in 2010, based on the population projections I found.
GOP states are looking to pick up 4 EVs, with Democrat states losing 1, and Battleground states losing 3.
I have done similar calculations. Beef something is wrong with your formula. Florida will definitely get one electoral seat and most probably will get two. Texas will get 2 and 50/50 3. Washington Oregon and Montana will not get seats. Baseline for a house seat might be around 766 thousand in 2010. Montana will not get another seat. Georgia, Nevada and Arizona will gain seats based on census projections. I essentially agree with your lose seats. Most projections show OH losing 2. Minnesota is will probably lose 1 also. Census projections mark Louisiana for a loss. Alabama is in danger and WV might be if they dont start pumping out some kids.
