The Tumult of 2020 - Parallel Universe

[Progressive]

Recap of 2016 Election Results

Marco Rubio/Nikki Haley; 272 Electoral Votes; 50% of popular vote
Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro; 266 Electoral Votes; 48% of popular vote

NOTABLE Senate Results *Notable races either for party change, closeness, particular interest as a result of a particular candidate, etc*

AR:
John Boozman* (R)            56%
Connor Eldridge (D)            41%

AZ:
John McCain* (R)      54%
Ann Kirkpatrick (D)   45%

CA:
Kamala Harris (D)    58%
Rocky Chavez (R)    38%

CO:
Michael Bennet* (D)  53%
Jon Keyser (R)          47%

CT:
Richard Blumenthal* (D)  60%
Larry Kudlow (R)             37%

FL:
David Jolly (R)         49% WINNER
Patrick Murphy (D)   49%

IL: (PARTY CHANGE) +1D
Tammy Duckworth (D)  51%
Mark Kirk* (R)               48%

IN:
Todd Young (R)            54%
Baron Hill (D)              45%

KY:
Rand Paul* (R)    55%
Ashley Judd (D)   42%

MO:
Roy Blunt* (R)     56%
Jason Kander (D) 44%

NC:
Richard Burr* (R)  54%
Deborah Ross (D)  44%

NH:
Kelly Ayotte* (R)    50% WINNER
Maggie Hassan (D) 50%

NV: (PARTY CHANGE) +1R
Joe Heck (R)                       51%
Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)  47%

OH:
Rob Portman* (R)    52%
Ted Strickland (D)    48%

PA:
Pat Toomey* (R)  50%
Joe Sestak (D)    48%

WI: (PARTY CHANGE) +1D
Russ Feingold (D)    52%
Ron Johnson* (R)    47%

SENATE (53-47) R CONTROL
HOUSE (UNCHANGED) R CONTROL

COMING NEXT

2017: Fight for Democratic leadership; Pres. Rubio's first SOTU; Inching Closer to War; Scandal at the White House; SCOTUS appointment

[Progressive]

2017 Part One: What a Year

Rubio Cabinet

Chief of Staff: Matt Terrill
Senior Advisers: Lanhee Chen and April Ponnuru
Press Secretary: Brooke Sammon
Secretary of State: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Secretary of Treasury: Carly Fiorina
Secretary of Defense: Jim Webb
Attorney General: Viet Dinh
Secretary of the Interior: Joe Manchin
Secretary of Agriculture: Adam Putnam
Secretary of Commerce: Rosalind Brewer
Secretary of Labor: William Kilberg
Secretary of HHS: David Lakey
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee
Secretary of HUD: Kevin Falconer
Secretary of Transportation: Artur Davis
Secretary of Energy: T. Boone Pickens
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Lindsey Graham
Secretary of Homeland Security: Joe Lieberman


State of the Union



Rubio promises to dismantle 'destructive' elements of Obama presidency: In his first SOTU address, newly minted Pres. Marco Rubio said that much of his focus in 2017 would be "removing and replacing" Pres. Obama's "flawed" policies including the Affordable Care Act, funding for Planned Parenthood, and a deal with Iran.

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act

Despite promises to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Pres. Rubio has pocket vetoed a Congressional repeal of the Affordable Care Act, spurring anger in far-right elements of the GOP. Majority Leader McConnell said that he did not want this to be a priority of the Senate, but Speaker Ryan insisted that it should. Pres. Rubio insisted that Speaker Ryan was responsible for crafting a "viable alternative" since he insisted on this being a legislative priority, thus ensuing a Ryan-Rubio feud. In March 2017, the House passes a 12-point health care reform plan (including an elimination of the mandate, and a tax exemption for those making under $250,000). Majority Leader McConnell and the Senate GOP pass the repeal and bill 51-49, with Sen. Collins and Sen. Murkowski voting for repeal but against the 12-point plan dubbed the Ryan Plan. The Ryan Plan is not implemented in 2017, and neither is the repeal. Pres. Rubio insists that Ryan should have pushed for an elimination of the individual mandate as a separate bill, something Pres. Rubio says he would have quickly signed. Ryan refused, calling Rubio the "piecemeal president." Ryan further dug into Rubio saying that "bold presidents take bold steps," and that Rubio "had to be bold."

STATUS: No repeal of the ACA. No Ryan Plan. Ensuing feud between Rubio and Ryan.

Planned Parenthood Defunded: Replaced by Families First



In February 2017, Congress defunds, and Pres. Rubio agrees, to defund Planned Parenthood. Funding is eliminated and VP Haley is placed in charge of heading a task force to create Community Health Clinics funded party by the federal government, and operated by a non-profit largely funded by conservatives that provides STD/STI information, some preliminary cancer screenings, and parenthood assistance called Families First. Families First launches first in South Carolina and southern states, and by the end of 2017, makes its way to almost all states. Democratic governors have in turn pledged funding planned parenthood, with Gov. Cuomo promising a "Planned Parenthood in every county, if necessary" pleasantly surprising choice advocates such as Cecil Richards. The Clinton Foundation also promised to be a prime benefactor. Planned Parenthood launched a "Take Our Choice Back" campaign, naming Hillary Clinton the national honorary chair. In December 2017, Families First is accused by a teenager in Virginia of intentionally giving the teen a wrong gestation date, with the purpose of hoping that if she sought an abortion, she would have passed the legal threshold permitting her to terminate the pregnancy. The case is expected to head to SCOTUS in 2018.

National Security and Terror

A homegrown terror group likely with ties to ISIS struck public bus systems in several midwestern cities, leaving about a dozen dead overall. Pres. Rubio pledges to enhance surveillance over mosques and retaliate strongly against ISIS. Rubio orders airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, and one air strike is thought to have killed top ISIS brass. Pres. Rubio is credited for his swift action against ISIS, but is equally criticized for his pledge to surveil mosques.

Guns

Mass shooting takes places at an abortion clinic in Florida. No action taken. Nothing has changed. Literally.

SCOTUS

After a number of slips, falls, and a possible minor stroke, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has admitted that her "cognitive abilities have begun to diminish," and she will step down by the end of 2017 in order to focus on her health and family. Already, there is speculation as to who Pres. Rubio will appoint. Here are the names who have been floated so far:

Philip Friedman, General Counsel at AIPAC
Viet Dinh, U.S. Attorney General
Chris Christie, NJ Governor
Paul Clement, former U.S. Solicitor General
Judge Diane Sykes
Judge Brett Kavanaugh

MORE TO COME SOON!

[Progressive]

2017 Part Two: The Politics

Judge Diane Sykes is nominated and confirmed 67-32.

Already, there's political buzz and not just about the 2020 Presidential Race. Here's a re-cap of the politics of the year.

2017 Elections

Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) handily defeated Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) 59% to 39% in what is considered a stinging rebuke of the Christie years.

NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) squeaked by a tough primary challenge 53% to 46% against NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer (D). De Blasio went on to beat former presidential candidate, Republican Donald Trump 60% to 36%.

Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam defeats former U.S. Senate candidate Ed Gillespie (R) 50%-49%.

2018 Forecasts on Notable Senate Races

AZ: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is running for re-election. U.S. Rep. Kirsten Synema (D) has already declared herself a challenger. Astronaut Mark Kelly (D) is also said to be considering a bid.

CA: Ailing incumbent U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) will retire. CA State Treasurer John Chiang (D) and former U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) have already declared for the race. Former Vice Presidential candidate Julian Castro (D), who purchased a home in Los Angeles in 2016, is said to be considering a bid as well. Former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina (R) is being recruited by the NRSC to run.

FL: To the chagrin of many Washington Democrats, incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who will be 76 in 2018, is running for his fourth term. Former U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson (D) is challenging him in a primary. Former U.S. Rep. and Senate candidate David Jolly (R) and CFO Bill Atwater (R) are also exploring bids.

ME: U.S. Sen. Angus King (I), the incumbent, will seek re-election with the support of Democrats. So far, no viable Democratic or Republican candidates have come forward.

MO: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill will NOT seek re-election in Missouri. Former U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan (D), is exploring a bid, and U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner (R) is largely expected to run.

NJ: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Menendez (D) will NOY seek re-election. Former NJ Gov. Richard Codey (D) is running, as is U.S. Reps. Frank Pallone (D) and Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D). Watson-Coleman is supposedly the favorite by DSCC. Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R), who lost a gubernatorial race, is exploring a bid, as is NJ Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. (R).

In all other states, even swing states, popular incumbents are seeking re-election, and are not expected to have serious challenger *yet*.

Presidential Contest Forecast for 2020 *random order*

DECLARED:

AFL-CIO Chairman Richard Trumka (D-DC) Many in the media think he may be the Democrats' Donald Trump of 2020. He has come out swinging against Rubio, and is generating buzz in early states.

EXPLORING:

U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ): Cory Booker formed an exploratory committee in late 2017 called 'Time for Change PAC.' He has visited IA, NH, NV, and SC, as well as other states.

Former MD Gov. Martin O'MalleyDespite being a virtual no-show in 2016, former Gov. O'Malley is barnstorming Iowa, and running an "I told you so" campaign. Still, he has gained little popularity.

U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) The popular Senator has launched an exploratory committee focused on Pres. Rubio's short-comings in foreign policy and on making the country better for women. She has hit Sen. Cory Booker publicly on his support of charter schools.

UNDECLARED:

Former HUD Secretary and 2016 Democratic VP Candidate Julian Castro: considered a potential candidate but is also rumored to be seeking a U.S. Senate seat in CA.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): Warren campaigned heavily for Democrats in 2016 and 2017, and has visited Iowa five times in 2017. A PAC, intended to draft Warren into the race, called 'We Want Warren' has launched several radio and TV ads in media markets across the country. Warren is non-committal, and tampered down speculation, insisting that she's still running for U.S. Senate.

NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) Squeaking by without an indictment, Gov. Cuomo is steadfast in fanning flames that he is being asked to run for president by Americans across the country. He has been a staunch critic of Pres. Rubio and his campaign aides are supposedly performing opposition research on Elizabeth Warren.

Potential other candidates: U.S. Sen Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA).

NEXT: POLLING!

[Progressive]

2018: The Landscape
*Rubio approval: 44% Approve/51% Disapprove
*Country is deeply engrossed in War on ISIS including several thousand ground troops in Syria and Iraq, though a number of terror plots have been foiled and nothing since has happened in the US.
*Unemployment rate: Creeping up to 6%
*Rubio Admin. decides to keep order expanding those who can remain in the country under DACA and DAPA.
*Gas prices have surged


Vice President Haley (left) campaigns with California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R) (right)


2018: The Midterm Election Results and Notable Races
*totals may not add up to 100% but I have only included serious candidates in the % totals*

ARIZONA: [STAYS R]
Jeff Flake* (R) 49.95%
Kirsten Synema (D) 49.89%

CALIFORNIA: [STAYS D]
Julian Castro (D) 52.3%
Carly Fiorina (R) 44.5%

CONNECTICUT: [STAYS D]
Chris Murphy* (D)   66.5%
Larry Kudlow (R)         32.2%

DELAWARE: [STAYS D]
Jill Biden (D)                69.4%
Christine O'Donnell (R)     30.0%

FLORIDA: [STAYS D]
Bill Nelson* (D)                     52.1%
Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R)             47.0%

HAWAII: [STAYS D]
Mazie Hirono* (D)   65.3%
Duke Aiona (R)            34.1%

INDIANA: [STAYS D]
Joe Donnelly* (D)     50.1%
Susan Brooks (R)          49.0%

MAINE: [STAYS I]
Angus King* (I/D)     54.3%
Paul Le Page (R)            44.0%

MARYLAND: [STAYS D]
Martin O'Malley (D)    59.0%
Michael Steele (R)          39.5%

MASSACHUSETTS: [STAYS D]
Elizabeth Warren* (D)    75.1%
Patricia Saint Aubin (R)          24.9%

MICHIGAN: [STAYS D]
Debbie Stabenow* (D)     53.9%
Judy Emmons (R)                44.5%

MINNESOTA: [STAYS D]
Amy Klobuchar* (D)        57.4%
Kurt Daudt (R)                    42.5%

MISSISSIPPI: [STAYS R]
Roger Wicker against a D challenger who did not actively campaign

MISSOURI: [+1 R]
Ann Wagner (R)   52.5%
Russ Carnahan (D)   46.3%

MONTANA: [STAYS D]
Jon Tester* (D)   49.99%
Marc Racicot (R)      49.19%

NEBRASKA: [STAYS R]
Deb Fischer against a D challenger who did not actively campaign

NEVADA: [STAYS R]
Dean Heller* (R)  50.3%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 48.0%

NEW JERSEY: [STAYS D]
Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D)  55.1%
Tom Kean, Jr (R)                       44.5%

NEW MEXICO: [STAYS D]
Martin Heinrich ran against an R challenger who did not actively campaign

NEW YORK: [STAYS D]
Kirsten Gillibrand* (D)           70.0%
Bob Turner (R)                           29.4%

NORTH DAKOTA: [STAYS D]
Heidi Heitkamp* (D)         50.2%
Rick Berg (R)                        49.5%

OHIO: [STAYS D]
Sherrod Brown* (D)       52.7%
Josh Mandel (R)                 46.3%

PENNSYLVANIA: [STAYS D]
Mike Stack (D)               54.5%
Jim Cawley (R)                   45.0%

RHODE ISLAND: [STAYS D]
Sheldon Whitehouse ran against an R challenger who did not actively campaign

TENNESSEE: [STAYS R]
Beth Harwell (R)    62.1%
Karl Dean (D)            37.6%

TEXAS: [STAYS R]
Louie Gohmert (R)    56.1%
Wendy Davis (D)           43.0%

UTAH: [STAYS R]
Mia Love ran against a D challenger who did not actively campaign

VERMONT: [STAYS I]
Bernie Sanders ran against an R challenger who did not actively campaign

VIRGINIA: [STAYS D]
Tim Kaine* (D)    53.0%
Benjamin Cline (R)   45.9%

WASHINGTON: [STAYS D]
Maria Cantwell ran against an R challenger who did not actively campaign

WEST VIRGINIA: [STAYS D]
Joe Manchin* (D)  49.88%
Patrick Morrissey (R) 49.86%

WISCONSIN: [STAYS D]
Tammy Baldwin* (D) 56.1%
Rebecca Kleefisch (R)    42.9%

WYOMING: [STAYS R]
John Barrasso ran against a D challenger who did not actively campaign

SENATE BALANCE OF POWER:
54-46 REPUBLICAN CONTROL (+1 from 2016)

HOUSE BALANCE OF POWER:
REMAINS REPUBLICAN

2018: Some Notable Gubernatorial Races

CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newson (D) defeats Kevin Faulconer (R)
COLORADO: Michael Hancock (D) defeats Ken Buck (R)
FLORIDA: Pam Bondi (R) defeats Tom Buckhorn (D) by 289 votes in a close recount.
ILLINOIS: Lisa Madigan (D) defeats incumbent Bruce Rauner* (R) by over 10 points.
MARYLAND: Larry Hogan* (R) hangs on to re-election against Tom Perez by 4 points.
MASSACHUSETTS: In a shining light for Republicans, Charlie Baker* (R) defeats Setti Warren (D) by 9 points. Warren hoped to win by running as a Democrat also named Warren.
PENNSYLVANIA: Bob Casey (D) handily defeats a GOP state senator.
TEXAS: Ted Cruz (R) handily defeats Leticia Van De Putte (D). Cruz defeated George P. Bush in a primary by 20 points.
WISCONSIN: Ron Kind (D) defeats Scott Fitzgerald (R) after Scott Walker decided not to run.

OVERALL: A disappointing night for Democrats who hoped to take back the Senate and win key governor posts. Rachel Maddow wraps up the night and forecasts what's to come.


Tonight it would be an understatement to say that Democrats are disappointed by the results. In fact, such woe is the Democratic Party right now that rumors are already flying that Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Florida Congresswoman and the chair of the DNC, will step down in a statement tomorrow at the National Press Club in Washington. Democrats hoped to shave Senate seats from the Republicans. Instead, they lost one. Democrats hoped to win back seats in the House. Instead, Democratic heroes like Zephyr Teachout from New York were defeated in re-election. Democrats hoped to win governor races. Instead, Republicans won and won big in places like my home state of Massachusetts. Yes, the same state where Elizabeth Warren won by 50 points. Perhaps the Democrats will decide to stop hoping. President Obama, remember him (?), coupled hope with action. Now Democrats across the country will no doubt look for someone to initiate that action. Ladies and gentleman, this will be a bumpy ride and Democratic leadership has a lot of soul-searching to do. And from the looks of it, the search starts tomorrow at a press conference in DC. We'll see what happens next.

Stay tuned!

BTW--if anyone wants a detailed result on a race, a primary, etc., feel free to ask!

[Progressive]

2018: Winds of Change in the Democratic Party


It has been a great honor in my life to serve this country as the chair of the Democratic National Committee. I believe that I have been a steady hand that helped bring another term to President Obama, and we've defended our party from catastrophic losses in three elections since. But now, with last night's results, it's crucial that I return to my job as a proud Congresswoman to stop President Rubio's disastrous agenda, and pursue legislative solutions that make our country more just and safe. So, effective immediately, I will be stepping down as chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, and stepping up against the Rubio/Haley policies that threaten to take this country even further backward.

Donna Brazile has once again been selected unanimously by the 441 voting members of the DNC to serve as acting chair. Already a number of names have come forward expressing interest in serving as DNC Chair. They include: Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, former Congresswoman Zephyr Teachout, former Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, 2008 and 2016 DNC Convention CEO Leah Daughtry, former Obama Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, former Ohio State Senator and Chair of Democratic Action Coalition Nina Turner, and philanthropist and Bend the Arc founder Alexander Soros.

In the end, the following candidates officially declared candidacy for the DNC Chair Race of 2018
*Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard: Considered the frontrunner and is being supported by many in the party who want both a woman and a person of color.
*Former Congresswoman Zephyr Teachout: Hired former Bernie Sanders campaign manager Tad Devine to recruit liberal DNC committee members to her effort to revive Howard Dean's 50-state strategy while also adopting
*2008 and 2016 DNC Convention CEO Leah Daughtry is seen as a wildcard pick, but a safe pick for DNC leadership.
*Former Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has staked his campaign arguing that Democrats have lost ground in rural, agricultural, largely white locales, and that he has the strategy to advance Democrats there.
* Alexander Soros' main argument is that the DNC needs more outreach to younger voters.

FIRST BALLOT of 441 votes (majority needed to win chairmanship)
Gabbard     163
Daughtry    123
Vilsack        59
Teachout     49
Soros         46

*Soros drops out and backs Teachout; Vilsack backs Gabbard*

SECOND BALLOT

Gabbard     259
Daughtry    105
Teachout     77


Tulsi Gabbard has been elected DNC chair.

NEXT: 2018 presidential election forecasts!

[Progressive]

You had David Jolly win the Florida Senate race in 2016 then run and loose the Florida Senate race in  2018

Whoops that was supposed to be Carlos López-Cantera! Thanks!

[Progressive]

Hi. Loving the timeline! I know you're probably getting here, and I don't mean to be impatient, but how are early 2020 primary polls on the Democratic side generally looking?

Polls galore and then some in the next post!

[Progressive]

2018: Looking Toward the White House

DECLARED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
*AFL-CIO Richard Trumka
*Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley

OFFICIALLY EXPLORING A BID
*Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey
*Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois
*Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York

UNDECLARED BUT THOUGHT TO BE CONSIDERING
*Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
*Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
*Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
*Sen. Julian Castro of California

OFFICIALLY NOT RUNNING
*Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana
*Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia

POLLS! POLLS! POLLS!

Does Warren have a lock on the Democratic nomination?



National
23% Warren
10% Booker
10% Castro
6% Duckworth
5% O'Malley
5% Feingold
4% Gillibrand
4% Trumka
2% Cuomo
31% UNDECIDED

Iowa
19% Warren
11% Feingold
7% Booker
7% Castro
5% Duckworth
4% O'Malley
3% Trumka
3% Gillibrand
2% Cuomo
39% UNDECIDED

New Hampshire
24% Warren
12% Booker
9% Castro
6% Gillibrand
5% Duckworth
5% O'Malley
5% Trumka
4% Feingold
4% Cuomo
26% UNDECIDED

The Narrative

Elizabeth Warren: Sources say that Elizabeth Warren will announce her bid in Massachusetts just weeks after the new year in 2019. But many say that Warren wants a "clean, clear, and fairly obvious" path to the nomination. We Want Warren, the super PAC urging Warren to run, has aired commercials in Iowa and some other locations in the midwest, in an attempt to drum up support for an expected Warren candidacy, which, according to We Want Warren, will hopefully deter Feingold and/or Duckworth from running where they would have a natural connection with Iowa voters. Warren is expected to hire Tad Devine from the Sanders campaign, as well as Joel Benenson, who was Hillary Clinton's pollster and strategist. Warren's strategy is to, at worst, come close to tying the popular vote in Iowa, and winning big in New Hampshire. The momentum will promulgate itself after.

Cory Booker: Booker has hired former Obama campaign staffers including Stephanie Cutter (Obama's deputy campaign manager) in his bid for the presidency. His campaign is also expecting to outraise most if not all of the Democratic field, setting up the campaign for strategic fundraising victories, and successful early contact with voters. We Want Warren has already criticized Booker's strong support for charter schools, and critics allege that Booker is light on substance and heavy on flash.

Julian Castro: The former HUD Secretary and 2016 VP Candidate caught a lucky break when Sen. Feinstein retired and the CA Democratic establishment coalesced around his unlikely bid. Since 2018, Castro had laid the groundwork for a presidential race by rising as the top advocate for immigration reform, and, interestingly, comprehensive and robust campaign finance reforms including public financing of campaigns. Democratic insiders expect that Castro's bid, however, will be dogged by the fact that he will have only been in the Senate for a year before the election, and that CA's top Democratic elected officials, including Sen. Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom are expected to back other candidates for the race. Harris is expected to back Booker and Newsom has stated publicly that the next Democratic nominee "must be a woman."

Tammy Duckworth: Sen. Duckworth landed on the cover of Time Magazine in Dec. 2018 as "The Most Interesting Candidate for President You Probably Never Heard Of." Duckworth's story of war-time heroism has granted her high favorability ratings among Republicans and independents in addition to, of course, fellow Democrats. Duckworth has landed the support of former Obama aide Valerie Jarrett. Jarrett has said that Duckworth is "the candidate to watch" this cycle, and insiders suggest that Duckworth may be the only candidate with the right mix of "guts and charisma" to unseat a Republican incumbent president.

Martin O'Malley: In a field of about nine Democratic candidates (and maybe more), Martin O'Malley's mid-single digit poll showing lands him in the middle of a crowded pack, giving him a stronger showing than it did when he tried to take down Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Still, few Democratic insiders believe that O'Malley has the staying power in this race to snag significant support. Nonetheless, O'Malley's strategy is to finish Iowa ahead of Trumka and Cuomo, and earn their voters if they drop out of the race.

Russ Feingold: Like Sen. Tammy Duckworth, this Wisconsin senator is another candidate considered an underdog with room to grow. Feingold is expected to put most of his resources into Iowa where he hopes to emerge as the top alternative to Elizabeth Warren. Feingold has hired Joe Trippi who was the senior strategist to John Edwards' 2008 bid, and strong second-place showing in Iowa.

Kirsten Gillibrand: The affable and sharp New York senator was reportedly incensed that Gov. Cuomo launched an exploratory committee without first advising the senator. Democratic insiders in New York were hoping that Cuomo would not run, and that they would be able to back Gillibrand in terms of organizational and financial support. Still, Minority Leader Schumer is reportedly making calls to fellow senators on Gillibrand's behalf in an effort to rally support for New York's junior senator. Nonetheless, with Cuomo in the race, Gillibrand will likely be stunted in her ability to rise to her full potential.

Richard Trumka: The brash and animated former president of the AFL-CIO has declared that 2020 is the moment for the "worker revolution" in the U.S. He boasts over 75,000 volunteers already for his campaign, largely lay-persons in labor unions across the country. DNC Chair Tulsi Gabbard has reportedly called Trumka begging him to drop out of the race, insisting that the diverse slate of Democrats this year adequately represents the interests of labor and working people. Though he does not poll high in the polls, Trumka is thought to have some of the traits that Donald Trump had in 2016, and he has held several large rallies in early states including a 3,000 person rally in Council Bluffs, IA.

Andrew Cuomo: Perhaps the most perplexing expected candidacy of 2020 is that of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo. There have been virtually no power players in the Democratic party clamoring for a Cuomo bid, and Gillibrand internal polling shows 20% Warren, 12% Gillibrand, 12% Booker, with only 9% of Democrats backing Cuomo in a contested presidential bid. Still, Cuomo is expected to be a prolific fundraiser and is hoping to emerge as a the "capable executive" in the race.

2018: Treasury Secretary and HUD Secretary Replacement

After Fiorina and Faulconer's failed bids for statewide office in CA, Pres. Rubio has nominated Hewlett Packard CEO and former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman who is confirmed 76-21, and for HUD Secretary, former Massachusetts Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, 63-36.

STAY TUNED FOR A CRAAAZY 2019!

 

[Progressive]

2019: The State of the Union [is changing]



Highlights of Pres. Rubio's Third State of the Union Address
*Stronger and Smarter Ed: In a shocking announcement, Pres. Rubio told the country that Sec. Rhee would step down and that the Rubio administration would begin to implement plans to dissolve the federal Department of Education.
*Pulling Troops out of Syria: Pres. Rubio, who made a surprise visit to a US base in Syria last month, announced that he would begin pulling ground troops from Syria.
*Energy Polcy: President Rubio announced that by the beginning of his second term, the country will invest heavily in renewable fuels, in an effort to defund Middle Eastern terror.
*Infrastructure Bank: Pres. Rubio promises to use Department of Ed money to create infrastructure, including public schools.
*Families First: Pres. Rubio announced that Families First, which now receives federal aid instead of Planned Parenthood, officially has a clinic in all fifty states and will receive more money to provide family counseling and other mental health treatment, instead of adding mental health treatment to the ACA.


California Sen. Kamala Harris (D) gave the SOTU response, calling Pres. Rubio's 2019 agenda "the most destructive agenda" the country had ever seen. She vowed a "sturdy, swift, and uncompromising" Democratic response in Congress to "save the country."

LATEST HEADLINE ON DRUDGE
MICHELLE IS MAD: Ed. Secretary Rhee Considers White House Bid Against Rubio


MORE TO COME

[Progressive]

2019: Jumping In, Bowing Out, and Getting Ready to Take on Rubio

Rubio's 2019 SOTU speech marked drastic change in federal policy, and seems to have sped up the speed of Democratic entries for the presidential race.

DECLARED DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
*AFL-CIO Richard Trumka
*Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley
*Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
*Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York
*Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey

OFFICIALLY EXPLORING A BID
*Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois
*Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
*Sen. Julian Castro of California
*Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin

UNDECLARED BUT THOUGHT TO BE CONSIDERING
*Former Education Secretary Michelle Rhee of Washington, D.C.

OFFICIALLY NOT RUNNING
*Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana
*Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia
*Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia
*Mayor Bill de Blasio of NYC


Sen. Elizabeth Warren announced her bid in Boston. Warren declared that she "had nothing to explore" because "millions of people across the country" had already given Warren her verdict: that this bid was the one shot to stop Pres. Rubio from implementing an agenda that would "mortgage our future" and "spell disaster for generations to come."


Gov. Andrew Cuomo held a rally attended by just 1,000 people (largely long-time political allies and supporters) in Brooklyn to announce his bid. Cuomo argues that "more than ever, America needs a sane, sober, and competent executive with a progressive heart and a sharp mind."


Sen. Cory Booker held a rally with thousands people in Hoboken, N.J. overlooking Manhattan declaring his announcement the moment that "America takes back its government."

NATIONAL POLLING/u]

Feb 1-3, 2015/CNN:
Warren       22%
Booker       13%
Castro         9%
Duckworth   7%
Feingold      7%
Trumka       6%
Gillibrand    5%
Cuomo       4%
O'Malley     4%
Rhee          0%
Undecided  23%

Feb 1-3, 2015/NBC/WSJ:
Warren:      26%
Booker:       11%
Castro:        9%
Duckworth:  9%
Feingold:     8%
Gillibrand:   7%
Trumka:      5%
Cuomo:       5%
O'Malley:     4%
Rhee:          1%
Undecided:  15%

IOWA:

Feb 1-3,2015/Selzer & Co
Warren:     24%
Booker:     12%
Feingold:   11%
Duckworth: 9%
Castro:       7%
Trumka:      7%
Cuomo:       3%
Gillibrand:   3%
O'Malley:    3%
Rhee:         0%
Undecided: 21%

UP NEXT: NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS AND SOME DRAMA!

[Progressive]

So I stopped this once it looked like (based on Early States) that Rubio really would not be the nominee. Anyone think it's worth continuing?

[Progressive]

2019: Bowing Out, Soldiering On

The spring of 2019 was an eventful one on the presidential campaign front. President Rubio announced that he would seek re-election along with Vice President Nikki Haley as his running mate. With 46% approval, and 48% disapproval, Pres. Rubio's re-election chances look solid but far from certain. 47% of Americans felt that Pres. Rubio deserves re-election, while another 47% say that he does not.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York has dropped out of the presidential race citing her desire to "stop the implementation of the failed Rubio agenda," and her need to return to her constituents in New York. Gillibrand struggled early on to break into the middle-tier of the presidential back, and reportedly did not see a viable path to victory in any of the four early states (in 2020, these are still IA, NH, SC, and NV). She is reported to favor Sen. Booker or Sen. Feingold for the nomination as she clashed early on with Sen. Warren at a candidate forum on CNN in New Hampshire.

Former AFL-CIO Richard Trumka will also drop out of the race, having raised only $500,000 in his bid. He will not back a candidate before the early states have concluded, according to a campaign aide.

Meanwhile, aides to Sen. Booker of New Jersey have urged Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York to drop out of the race as well. Several Booker aides have told reporters that Cuomo's presence in the race is preventing Booker from accessing prominent New York-based donors who will be integral in taking on Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Sen. Booker feels that the race will ultimately come down to him and Warren, and he is focused right now on Iowa with the thinking that Warren will probably win New Hampshire, and that he could eventually win South Carolina with the African American vote.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts meanwhile has emerged as the prohibitive frontrunner, despite competing against a talented field of Democratic candidates. She also received the endorsement of 2016 Democratic runner up Sen. Bernie Sanders, who held an endorsement rally with her in New Hampshire. Sen. Warren insists that she can expand the Sanders coalition, and she has decided that she will take money from progressive PACs and some businesses, law firms, etc.



Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin was hoping for a Sanders endorsement as he is trying to capitalize on Sanders working and middle-class Rust Belt supporters. Feingold has focused his campaign on eliminating corruption and implementing campaign finance reforms. He has also taken on issues of food and farming justice, which he hopes will ignite support in both rural and urban communities. His plan essentially is an agricultural stimulus package in which farmers grow food mainly for consumers in food deserts and poor communities. Food coops, charities and non-profits, and states and municipalities, school districts, as well as individuals would purchase the food with government subsidies.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois emerged on the scene as an exciting top candidate, but is now being regarded as every candidate's top vice presidential choice. Sen. Duckworth has not campaigned energetically in the first four states and has instead focused so far mainly on her Senate agenda, including serving as lead opposition to almost all of Rubio's cabinet appointments, especially in foreign policy areas.

Last, former Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland ranks at the bottom of the pack yet again. He has become the object of late-night TV jokes, with many suggesting that he really wants a low-level cabinet position.

NATIONAL POLL (Washington Post/ABC): 31% Warren, 18% Booker, 11% Feingold, 7% Duckworth, 5% Cuomo, 3% O'Malley, 25% undecided

NATIONAL POLL (New York Times/CBS): 32% Warren, 20% Booker, 11% Feingold, 9% Duckworth, 6% Cuomo, 2% O'Malley, 20% undecided

IOWA POLL (Washington Post/ABC): 29% Warren, 19% Booker, 15% Feingold, 10% Duckworth, 4% Cuomo, 4% O'Malley, 19% undecided

IOWA POLL (New York Times/CBS): 29% Warren, 20% Booker, 14% Feingold, 12% Duckworth, 3% Cuomo, 2% O'Malley, 20% undecided

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL (Washington Post/ABC): 37% Warren, 13% Booker, 9% Feingold, 7% Cuomo, 5% Duckworth, 2% O'Malley, 27% undecided

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL (New York Times/CBS): 36% Warren, 15% Booker, 10% Feingold, 7% Cuomo, 6% Duckworth, 2% O'Malley, 24% undecided

COMING UP: A CRAZY SUMMER OF 2019